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The "reason" for today's gold/silver sell-off...
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TOPIC: The "reason" for today's gold/silver sell-off...
#17290
Re: The "reason" for today's gold/silver sell-off... 2 Years ago  
I guess I am confused then:


No, Seb, look closer. He does NOT say that in the same breath. Refreshingly, there's not one word about Alf Fields' Elliot Wave voodoo (and not one word since).


www.jsmineset.com/2012/04/04/in-the-news-today-1151/


Gold is destined to trade at the prices outlined by Alf Fields. The gold banks will, as they did in 1980, make the most money over the shortest time as gold goes to overvaluation long.


From April 4, 2012
Seb1

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#17292
Re: The "reason" for today's gold/silver sell-off... 2 Years ago Karma: 255
Seb1 wrote:
I guess I am confused then:


No, Seb, look closer. He does NOT say that in the same breath. Refreshingly, there's not one word about Alf Fields' Elliot Wave voodoo (and not one word since).


www.jsmineset.com/2012/04/04/in-the-news-today-1151/


Gold is destined to trade at the prices outlined by Alf Fields. The gold banks will, as they did in 1980, make the most money over the shortest time as gold goes to overvaluation long.


From April 4, 2012


OK Seb, he wrote that AFTER I visited the site this morning (or I missed it first time around), as I don't remember seeing that. So my previous statement stands: Sinclair is openly contradicting himself.

As with most people, I would suggest that what Sinclair said in a moment of OBVIOUS frustration (that "charts are now meaningless") is MORE reflective of how he honestly feels than the SCRIPTED mantra he regularly repeats concerning Alf Fields.

At any rate, we now have Sinclair talking out of BOTH sides of his mouth while I will remain consistent" T/A is almost totally meaningless in manipulated markets.
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#17293
Re: The "reason" for today's gold/silver sell-off... 2 Years ago  
Well he did say that 2 days ago, so maybe he has changed his mind or he is just frustrated like many of us. I read the some TA stuff more as a hand holding exercise, trying to get a glimmer of encouragement. Usually only to be disappointed.

I am however at a complete loss as to how some of these guys can keep writing day after day based on TA. Franklin Sanders comes to mind with his Y tops and flat bottoms. He goes out on a limb a few times a week, but then hedges his bets with statements like if it doesn't go up it will go down or what do I know I'm from Tennessee or wherever he's from. I read his articles for amusement while at the same time keeping my fingers crossed that he might actually be right about the price going up.
Seb1

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#17294
Re: The "reason" for today's gold/silver sell-off... 2 Years ago Karma: 204
Seb,

You have a since of humor. I'm not laughing AT you, but with you.

I kept a "yahoo" , headlines log, just to show the BS. I'm, sarcastic at times.
But, your really, having too much fun at this.

You, keep questioning, mention, what you don't like.

I, learn to be stronger.

You, are a strong person. Your , sarcasm, humor and most of all. everything you post show(s) are quality.

Your Brave,
I respect that-

Thank You
Earl
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#17295
Re: The "reason" for today's gold/silver sell-off... 2 Years ago  
Errr Earl,

I'm not sure what to say, thank you seems appropriate, but you are far too kind. I'm really not having too much fun at this. I don't enjoy being on this roller coaster, with my stomach in my mouth half the time. Most of the time I haven't got a clue as to what is going on, as nothing seems to make sense. I just keep hoping that I haven't made a whopping mistake, having made many over the last 60 years.

Cheers Seb
Seb1

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#17302
Re: The "reason" for today's gold/silver sell-off... 2 Years ago Karma: 255
Seb1 wrote:
I'm not sure what to say, thank you seems appropriate, but you are far too kind. I'm really not having too much fun at this. I don't enjoy being on this roller coaster, with my stomach in my mouth half the time. Most of the time I haven't got a clue as to what is going on, as nothing seems to make sense. I just keep hoping that I haven't made a whopping mistake, having made many over the last 60 years.

Cheers Seb



Seb, as I regularly remind you, MUCH of your personal anguish is SELF-INFLICTED.

Never forget that precious metals is INSURANCE, against the inevitable day when our governments drive their paper to zero. Do you check the FIRE INSURANCE policy on your house every day - to see if you've made a "profit" on it?

You're upset about the value of your gold/silver TODAY. Do you need your insurance TODAY?

No.

You will NEED your insurance the day the paper collapses. Ask yourself this, when $20 TRILLION (or so) in Western bonds goes to ZERO, do you think all of those bond-holders are going to just STAND THERE (and go down with the ship), OR do you think they will (belatedly) try to FLEE into something safe (i.e. gold and silver)?

As I just finished writing in a commentary, if even 10% of that money is converted to gold and silver that implies prices increasing by SEVERAL MULTIPLES. Yet suggesting that 90% of those bond-holders would go down with the sheep seems like a VERY, VERY conservative scenario (for precious metals).

The day you NEED your Insurance, you will be very, very, very, very glad that you have it...

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#17304
Re: The "reason" for today's gold/silver sell-off... 2 Years ago  
Well Jeff, your understanding of this is based on your economics background, university, life experience etc. Mine is based on 60 years on the planet some of it as a school teacher, most of it as a small business owner. I do not understand markets, derivates, ETFs, shorts, longs etc.etc.

The doom and gloom scenario you paint may in fact come true. I have no idea whether it will or not. If it does will it be next year or thirty years hence? Who can tell? In fact it may not happen ever, gold did nothing in terms of price from approx. 1980 - 2004. Anyone my age or a bit older holding gold over that period would have either lost, especially if they bought near the high, or gained very little. I guess i don't want to be in that boat especially as I have no kids or family. I know the advice will be to bail out now if I feel that way. I am actually getting very close to doing that.

My concern is that if all this other stuff is going on, but the gold price can be kept at current levels or heaven forbid lower perhaps whoever is controlling this can in fact keep it up for years and years. I do not profess to understand any of this and I bet I am not the only one. I just don't want to be left with something which has not appreciated or like a car has slowly or rapidly depreciated with time.
Seb1

Last Edit: 2012/04/07 15:50 By .
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#17305
Re: The "reason" for today's gold/silver sell-off... 2 Years ago Karma: 17
Seb1 wrote:
The doom and gloom scenario you paint may in fact come true. I have no idea whether it will or not. If it does will it be next year or thirty years hence? Who can tell? In fact it may not happen ever, gold did nothing in terms of price from approx. 1980 - 2004. Anyone my age or a bit older holding gold over that period would have either lost or gained very little. I guess i don't want to be in that boat especially as I have no kids or family. I know the advice will be to bail out now if I feel that way. I am actually getting very close to doing that.

I agree with most of that for the short term (< 1 year). If you need liquidity (cash) for something (smashed a deer with your car, illness/trauma in the family, retirement), then we might be taking a loss on our Au/Ag. I just started stacking ~a year ago (+ some odds and ends from years past), so I bought most of my metals around last year's highs.

Long term, I just don't see how metals can have *any* risk at all (other than storage). There are just so many things coming into play now: BRICs + S. Africa + Venezuela (+ how many others) are tired of the magical inflating dollar. I believe US$ hyperinflation is absolutely inevitable. Asia AND CENTRAL BANKS seem to be the net buyers of PMs after they drive down the prices with their high frequency trading. You've read Chris Martenson's "Crash Course"? ...all those exponential graphs...

I just read these:

Ted Butler on Ag manipulation (nothing new, but good read):
www.gata.org/node/11222

Central Planning for Dummies
www.zerohedge.com/news/mike-krieger-expl...ral-planning-dummies

Apr 4th Ag update:
dont-tread-on.me/?p=15913

And as Jeff has said in the past: What other choice do we have? I'd much rather have some shiny malleable metals than worthless paper. At least I can make jewelery from the metals. I doubt anyone here would suggest bailing now (unless you need the cash).
Samak
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#17307
Re: The "reason" for today's gold/silver sell-off... 2 Years ago Karma: 120
Samak, you link to Zerohedge led me to the open letter to Ben Bernanke. I found the rebuttal of Item #4 very interesting. It reads in part, t By the way, Ben, the Coinage Act of 1792 fixed the price of silver in terms of gold at (15:1).

Jeff, you mention this ratio often in your commentaries, did you realize it was actually fixed by the Coinage Act 1792?


www.zerohedge.com/news/guest-post-open-letter-ben-bernanke

Guest Post: Open Letter To Ben Bernanke
Tyler Durden's picture
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 04/02/2012 21:48 -0400

Submitted by Keith Weiner

New Austrian School of Economics
Gold Standard Institute

Benjamin Bernanke
Chairman of the Federal Reserve

Mar 25, 2012

4. It creates deflation, as William Jennings Bryan noted. The meaning of the "cross of gold" speech: Because farmers had debts fixed in gold, loss of pricing power in commodities killed them.

By the way, Ben, the Coinage Act of 1792 fixed the price of silver in terms of gold at (15:1). Like every instance of laws that attempt to interfere with the markets, this provision was an unmitigated disaster. Whichever metal is officially valued at less than its market value will be pulled out of circulation and sent elsewhere for its market price. Whichever metal is overvalued will be imported from every corner of the earth and come flooding into the country.

In 1873, the government was ready to open the US Mint again. But when they wrote the list of which coins the Mint was authorized to coin, they somehow “forgot” to include the one ounce silver coin. Silver was demonetized. I am sure it had nothing to do with lust for power by the good men who ran the government, nor with any lobbying that might have occurred around that time. This was dubbed the “Crime of ‘73”.

Demonetizing silver destroyed enormous amounts of capital, Ben. Just imagine that a farmer, to use your example, has been working hard and saving all his life. And then the government, in callous and cavalier fashion, passes a law that destroys the value of his savings. But this is the power you crave, isn’t it? This is the power of central planning, to sit in an office in Washington, taking into account your whims, pet theories, and the desires of lobbyists and casually dispose of the income and wealth of the people without their consent.
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#17308
Re: The "reason" for today's gold/silver sell-off... 2 Years ago Karma: 255
debsyl wrote:
Samak, you link to Zerohedge led me to the open letter to Ben Bernanke. I found the rebuttal of Item #4 very interesting. It reads in part, t By the way, Ben, the Coinage Act of 1792 fixed the price of silver in terms of gold at (15:1).

Jeff, you mention this ratio often in your commentaries, did you realize it was actually fixed by the Coinage Act 1792?


www.zerohedge.com/news/guest-post-open-letter-ben-bernanke

Guest Post: Open Letter To Ben Bernanke
Tyler Durden's picture
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 04/02/2012 21:48 -0400

Submitted by Keith Weiner

New Austrian School of Economics
Gold Standard Institute

Benjamin Bernanke
Chairman of the Federal Reserve

Mar 25, 2012

4. It creates deflation, as William Jennings Bryan noted. The meaning of the "cross of gold" speech: Because farmers had debts fixed in gold, loss of pricing power in commodities killed them.

By the way, Ben, the Coinage Act of 1792 fixed the price of silver in terms of gold at (15:1). Like every instance of laws that attempt to interfere with the markets, this provision was an unmitigated disaster. Whichever metal is officially valued at less than its market value will be pulled out of circulation and sent elsewhere for its market price. Whichever metal is overvalued will be imported from every corner of the earth and come flooding into the country.

In 1873, the government was ready to open the US Mint again. But when they wrote the list of which coins the Mint was authorized to coin, they somehow “forgot” to include the one ounce silver coin. Silver was demonetized. I am sure it had nothing to do with lust for power by the good men who ran the government, nor with any lobbying that might have occurred around that time. This was dubbed the “Crime of ‘73”.

Demonetizing silver destroyed enormous amounts of capital, Ben. Just imagine that a farmer, to use your example, has been working hard and saving all his life. And then the government, in callous and cavalier fashion, passes a law that destroys the value of his savings. But this is the power you crave, isn’t it? This is the power of central planning, to sit in an office in Washington, taking into account your whims, pet theories, and the desires of lobbyists and casually dispose of the income and wealth of the people without their consent.


Yes Debsyl, I noticed that in some of my own recent reading. It was simply a reflection of historical reality and geology. With the supply ratio between the two metals in the Earth's crust at 17:1, the price ratio MUST be close to that - unless there was a dramatic difference in PREFERENCE between the two metals (which there is not).

Seb, 1980-2004 marked the BEGINNING of gold manipulation - when the banksters had 10's of thousands of TONS of gold to dump onto the market, and who knows how much silver?

The bullion is mostly GONE, which is why prices have been rising steadily for 10+ years. The scenario you describe isn't possible because the bullion NEEDED to suppress the market as was done between 1980-2000 DOESN'T EXIST.

You don't need an economics degree to understand that - just the ability to comprehend arithmetic SLIGHTLY above the fingers-and-toes level.

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