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Iran ups 'ante' in poker-game with West
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TOPIC: Iran ups 'ante' in poker-game with West
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#16841
Re: Iran ups 'ante' in poker-game with West 2 Years, 7 Months ago Karma: 168
I think India has acted very intelligently by supporting Iran, because price of Oil is what makes and breaks governments in India, and currently the price of Oil has skyrocketed in India.

By supporting Iran I am sure that India must have layed it's hands on a lot of discounts, on the other hand, if the heat turns on too much on India, they will just tell the US that the price of Oil is a sensitive issue locally and considering that the US will not attack India in it's good senses the only way to deter India will be to offer heavy oil discounts or part of oil supply if bombing Iran to stone age and regime change is a decided matter.

By the way India and Israel are very close allies when it comes to security and intelligence, So I will be watching this closely how this ends.
samix
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#16879
Re: Iran ups 'ante' in poker-game with West 2 Years, 7 Months ago Karma: 26
As Iran has been under sanctions since the iranian revolution, I doubt swift will have a major impact on them as long as india, china, etc. are ready to barter. Just came across this that might explain the swift issue, and dont forget that swift was pulled on the 17th.

"If SWIFT actually pulls the plug, I’d consider the fuse to be lit. Also, if SWIFT does it before 20 March, this is probably the real reason:

Last week, the Tehran Times noted that the Iranian oil bourse will start trading oil in currencies other than the dollar from March 20. This long-planned move is part of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s vision of economic war with the west.“The dispute over Iran’s nuclear programme is nothing more than a convenient excuse for the US to use threats to protect the ‘reserve currency’ status of the dollar,” the newspaper, which calls itself the voice of the Islamic Revolution, said."

cryptogon.com/?p=28067

Also came across this regarding the warship buildup in the gulf.

"Within a few weeks, the US have thus isolated Iran from the international banking sector, destroyed the currency, and induced hyperinflation. In terms of military strategy, the US seems to be following “McCollum’s memo” – many details are a 1:1 copy of the oil embargo against Japan that was imposed on 25 July 1941, which pretty much meant a stab in the back to the Japanese, because of their extremely high dependence on oil imports. On 7 December 1941 Japan eventually attacked Pearl Harbor ."

oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Power-Stru...lf-War-Imminent.html
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#16880
Re: Iran ups 'ante' in poker-game with West 2 Years, 7 Months ago  
South Sudan has currently shut off supplies to the refineries in the North because of the ongoing attacks from the North. Apparently Sudanese oil accounts for 6% of China's supply, so China will have to make up the shortfall elsewhere.
Seb1

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#16881
Re: Iran ups 'ante' in poker-game with West 2 Years, 7 Months ago Karma: 264
Samix, Philipz, Seb, thanks for the posts!

While it's hard to lump them all together, I will endeavour to do so. What we see in common here is the multitude of VARIABLES at work in these complicated dynamics.

Some of these variables the Oligarchs DO control (more or less) completely, some they have PARTIAL control over, and some of which they don't control whatsoever. The bottom-line is that this is ANOTHER reason why the (evil) plans of these Oligarchs are certain to self-destruct over time.

Their ARROGANCE leads them to believe they can exert EVER tighter control over us, while making all of our societies EVER more unstable because of their ever more extreme acts of evil/oppression. In fact, the two dynamics are MUTUALLY EXCLUSIVE. Increasing their oppression makes their empires MORE unstable, while attempting to exert TIGHTER control over us only tends to produce the opposite RESULT.

Thus is should be no surprise that the Oligarchs FAIL much more than they succeed. Afghanistan has been a failure. Iraq was a failure. Any war against Iran will be a failure. But the Oligarchs NEVER learn...
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#16909
Re: Iran ups 'ante' in poker-game with West 2 Years, 7 Months ago Karma: 26
etfdailynews.com/2012/03/15/strike-on-ir...fxi-rsx-uup-gld-uso/

Iran has stopped discussing accepting euros for its oil, but has instead leapfrogged to a more egregious policy of now accepting yen, rials, rubles, renminbi and gold (NYSEArca:GLD) in exchange for its crude. In fact, the Iranians went a step further in January, as to intentionally insult the U.S., by making the announcement that included a gratuitous statement that the policy change in Tehran was suggested by the Russians.

Gotta love the Russian. Also it seems Iran and Zimbabwe have teamed up to help each other.

www.csmonitor.com/World/Africa/2012/0315...-Zimbabwe-s-military

In a Sunday meeting between Zimbabwe Defense Minister Emmerson Mnangagwa and Iranian Defense Minister Ahmad Vahidi, Iran pledged to help Zimbabwe to modernize its defense forces. It is not clear how the cash-strapped but uranium and diamond rich Zimbabwe would pay for this service, but Minister Mnangagwa told reporters the agreement was merely a “consolidating and deepening” of the Iran-Zimbabwe relationship.
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#16913
Re: Iran ups 'ante' in poker-game with West 2 Years, 7 Months ago Karma: 264
philipz wrote:
etfdailynews.com/2012/03/15/strike-on-ir...fxi-rsx-uup-gld-uso/

Iran has stopped discussing accepting euros for its oil, but has instead leapfrogged to a more egregious policy of now accepting yen, rials, rubles, renminbi and gold (NYSEArca:GLD) in exchange for its crude. In fact, the Iranians went a step further in January, as to intentionally insult the U.S., by making the announcement that included a gratuitous statement that the policy change in Tehran was suggested by the Russians.

Gotta love the Russian. Also it seems Iran and Zimbabwe have teamed up to help each other.

www.csmonitor.com/World/Africa/2012/0315...-Zimbabwe-s-military

In a Sunday meeting between Zimbabwe Defense Minister Emmerson Mnangagwa and Iranian Defense Minister Ahmad Vahidi, Iran pledged to help Zimbabwe to modernize its defense forces. It is not clear how the cash-strapped but uranium and diamond rich Zimbabwe would pay for this service, but Minister Mnangagwa told reporters the agreement was merely a “consolidating and deepening” of the Iran-Zimbabwe relationship.


More tit-for-tat, and as you noted the goal here appears to more to PROVOKE than to do any real damage.

Just like I didn't see cutting Iran off of "SWIFT" to be any major coup by the US/UK/Israeli faction, neither do I see these announcements as being game-changers in any way. Rather, what we see is Iran getting emboldened in its defiance.

Recall what I've said before about the "trap" these Fascists have created for themselves. The economic terrorism from Wall Street which they have used to drastically WEAKEN most of Europe's economies means those nations could NEVER stand the strain of a sudden SPIKE in oil prices - the inevitable consequence of ANY military action against Iran.

And so even though we KNOW that the U.S. (and Israel) want to attack Iran even MORE than they wanted to attack Iraq, they cannot do so without DESTROYING most Western economies - including likely the U.S. and UK economies.
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#16947
U.S. weakens anti-Iran sanctions !! 2 Years, 7 Months ago Karma: 264
Well, someone just "blinked" in the game of chicken between the U.S. and Iran - and it wasn't Iran.

The U.S. government today announced "exemptions" from its anti-Iran oil sanctions for Japan and TEN of the EU nations. You don't have to be a political science graduate to read-between-the-lines here.

Basically, Japan and these 10 EU nations told the U.S. that they were going to CONTINUE buying Iranian - sanctions or no sanctions - and so the U.S. "granted these exemptions" (lol) in order to avoid having MOST of its own "allies" IGNORE the sanctions.



Here we see TWO consequences of Wall Street's economic terrorism. First of all the economies of these nations are too SICK to absorb the domestic consequences of these sanctions (i.e. higher oil/gas prices). Secondly, the U.S. is RAPIDLY running out of "friends".

Indeed, PAKISTAN now seems to be more interested in being the U.S.'s "friend" than virtually any Euro nations except for the U.S.'s partners in fascism: France and the UK.

P.S. There was a particularly amusing section where Bloomberg noted that "The U.S. didn’t grant waivers to China..."

LOL!!!! I'm sure that the Chinese are shaking in their boots about not being "granted a waiver" to buy Iran's oil.




"U.S. Exempts Japan, 10 EU Nations From Iran Oil Sanctions"

www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-03-20/u-s-ex...ions-on-banking.html

The Obama administration is sending a message to major buyers of Iranian oil, in particular China, India and South Korea, that they can avoid new U.S. sanctions by curtailing their imports of Iranian crude by the end of June, U.S. officials said.

Secretary of State Hillary Clinton announced yesterday that an “initial group” of countries, comprising Japan and 10 European Union nations, have “significantly reduced” their Iranian oil purchases and thus qualified for an exemption from sanctions for a renewable period of 180 days under the law.

The U.S. didn’t grant waivers to China (CCCIIQIR), the leading importer of Iranian crude in the first half of last year, or to India and South Korea, which were the third- and fourth-largest buyers, according to the U.S. Department of Energy.

Clinton praised the EU and Japan, which the Energy Department lists as the No. 2 importer of Iranian oil in the first half of last year, for taking actions that “were not easy” to cut back Iranian oil imports. “They had to rethink their energy needs at a critical time for the world economy and quickly begin to find alternatives to Iranian oil, which many had been reliant on for their energy needs,” she said in a statement.

Under a law enacted Dec. 31, countries have until June 28 to demonstrate they have “significantly reduced” the volume of their Iranian crude purchases -- or their banks that settle oil trades with Iran may be cut off from the U.S. financial system.
Reducing Uncertainty

Mark Dubowitz, executive director of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies in Washington, said in an interview that the Obama administration’s action yesterday “begins to reduce some of the uncertainty in oil markets over how the administration will apply oil market sanctions.”

“It gives Japan, in particular, which needs to keep buying Iranian oil, a clear pathway to continue those purchases without putting their financial institutions at risk,” said Dubowitz, who has advised the administration and Congress on sanctions. “It also establishes an early precedent that puts pressure on South Korea, India, China, Turkey, South Africa and other major buyers of Iranian oil to also comply with U.S. law.”

South Korean Finance Minister Bahk Jae Wan today downplayed yesterday’s action, saying the government in Seoul is “talking with the U.S. and the talks are going well” regarding cutting Iranian oil shipments. Japanese counterpart Jun Azumi said his government “welcomed the U.S. announcement,” and intends to “keep reducing oil imports at a certain pace.”
15 Percent Cut

The U.S. hasn’t defined what counts as a significant reduction. Obama administration officials, speaking on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the issue, said they’re looking for reductions of about 15 percent or more, depending on each nation’s circumstances.

President Barack Obama’s administration announced the exemptions to signal that the EU and Japan are being rewarded for their efforts in the hope that other countries will follow suit before the deadline, according to U.S. officials who spoke on condition of anonymity.

The U.S. officials said that, unlike previous sanctions, these allow the president little leeway in applying the law, so he’ll be forced to sanction China, India, South Korea, Turkey or other buyers if they don’t make substantial cuts in time.

Yesterday’s decision means Japan may continue buying some Iranian oil after U.S. sanctions take effect without exposing Japanese banks to penalties.

Japan cut its imports of Iranian oil by 15 percent to 22 percent in the second half of last year, according to public data, during a difficult time when it was reeling from an earthquake and subsequent nuclear disaster, and its energy needs were high, one U.S. official said.
Japan’s Imports

Japan got 10 percent of its crude imports from Iran from January through June of last year, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

In addition to Japan, all EU nations that purchased Iranian oil in the past year -- Belgium, the Czech Republic, France, Germany, Greece, Italy, the Netherlands, Poland, Spain and the United Kingdom -- cut back or halted their imports in order to qualify for the exemption, U.S. officials said.

The EU imported 450,000 barrels a day of Iranian oil in the first half of last year, about 3 percent of the region’s needs, according to the International Energy Agency in Paris. The EU collectively accounted for 18 percent of Iran’s oil exports in that period, according to the U.S. Energy Department.

The European Union decided two months ago to embargo Iranian oil imports effective July 1, so EU nations would not be buying Iranian crude or affected by U.S. sanctions in any case.
Sanctions Law

Under the sanctions law, the president must cut off U.S. bank accounts of any foreign financial institution that transacts petroleum-related business with Iran’s central bank -- unless its home country receives an exemption.

The sanctions are part of a coordinated campaign by the U.S. and the EU to ratchet up economic pressure on Iran’s leaders to persuade them to abandon any illicit aspects of their nuclear program.

U.S., European and Israeli officials have accused Iran of seeking the capability to build a nuclear weapon. United Nations inspectors, in a report released Nov. 8, raised questions about possible military dimensions of Iran’s program. Iran says its program is solely for civilian energy and medical research.

Iran is the No. 2 producer in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, and earns more than half of its government revenue from oil sales, according to the International Monetary Fund. Proponents of sanctions say pinching Iran’s oil revenues is the best way to deny Iran funding for any illicit nuclear or weapons-related activities.
Oil Prices

Oil yesterday dropped the most in more than three months in New York as Saudi Arabia, the world’s biggest crude-exporting country, said it can boost output immediately to stave off shortages.

Oil for April delivery fell $2.48 to settle yesterday at $105.61 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, the biggest one-day decline since Dec. 14. Futures are up 6.9 percent this year. The April contract expired yesterday. The more actively traded May futures declined $2.49, or 2.3 percent, to $106.07 a barrel.

“The sanctions are working,” said Senator Bob Menendez, a New Jersey Democrat and co-author of the sanctions law, in an interview. “Since President Obama signed the National Defense Authorization Act on December 31, we have seen Iran’s currency plummet and oil shipments in February fell to a 10-year low.”
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#16976
Oil price spikes on drop in Iran exports 2 Years, 7 Months ago Karma: 264
A report stating that U.S.-led sanctions have resulted in a reduction of Iran's oil exports by 300,000 barrels a day caused a leap in oil prices.

This is an odd news item to decipher, since the same report later claims that there is 2 MILLION barrels a day of excess capacity flooding markets.

IF that is the case, then there would be no reason at all for prices to rise based on this small drop in exports. Instead, the only explanation for the rise in price would be in response to the bankers' money-printing.

However, the propaganda machine NEVER admits that, which is why this is why they might be using this "news" (if it IS really news) to HIDE the fact that this spike was caused by money-printing.


"Oil Rises Almost $3 a Barrel on Iran Report"

www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-03-23/oil-ne...-weekly-decline.html

Oil surged almost $3 a barrel after Reuters reported Iranian oil exports will drop by 300,000 barrels a day because of tighter sanctions.

Oil has risen this year as Iran threatened to shut the Strait of Hormuz, a transit route for a fifth of the world’s oil, in response to Western sanctions on its petroleum exports aimed at halting its nuclear program. Futures fell earlier this week as Saudi Arabia said it could boost output immediately.

“The Reuters item came out at the same time we spiked,” said John Kilduff, a partner at Again Capital LLC, a New York- based hedge fund that focuses on energy. “It doesn’t look like much but it’s a reminder that the tensions will only probably only increase. If there is a cutoff of Iranian oil the Saudis will have a hard time making up for the lost supply.”

Crude oil for May delivery rose $1.44, or 1.4 percent, to $106.79 a barrel at 10:46 a.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Earlier, it touched $108.25 a barrel.

Brent oil for May settlement gained $2, or 1.6 percent, to $125.14 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange.

“It looks like a fat finger tripped a bunch of buy stops,” said Stephen Schork, president of the Schork Group in Villanova, Pennsylvania.
‘Buy Stops’

A buy stop is an order to purchase the commodity when the price exceeds a certain level. They are placed based on traders’ assessments that the price will gain upward momentum after breaching that point.

“That headline just helped trigger a few computer generated buy stops,” Tony Machacek, a broker at Bache Commodities Ltd. in London said by e-mail. “It came back off almost as quickly as it went up.”

Saudi Arabian Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi said on March 20 that the kingdom can boost output by 25 percent. The country’s crude production capacity is 12.5 million barrels a day and it will pump about 9.9 million barrels a day this month and in April, al-Naimi said in Doha, Qatar. The global market is oversupplied by as much as 2 million barrels a day and inventories are rising, he said.

“Going into the weekend I think it is going to be tough to short this thing,” Schork said.
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#16978
Re: Iran ups 'ante' in poker-game with West 2 Years, 7 Months ago Karma: 264
Here's a story noting how Iran is buying up large amounts of food (i.e. commodities) through TURKISH banks.

It would appear that rather than being squeezed by sanctions that at this point Iran is able to INCREASE its stockpiles of key items. This highlights the diminishing clout of the U.S.

Not only has the U.S. made it itself very unpopular with all of the world's non-Western nations, but it is SEEN to be losing its influence, and thus that dynamic further feeds into defiance of U.S. "edicts" - something which would have been very unlikely even a decade ago.


"Exclusive: Iran ramps up food imports via Turkish banks: trade"

www.reuters.com/article/2012/03/23/us-ir...dUSBRE82M0R520120323

(Reuters) - Almost half a million metric tonnes of grain has arrived at Iran's major food port and Turkish banks are being used by the Islamic Republic as an alternative trade financing route to sidestep Western sanctions, trade sources say.

Iran has been shopping for wheat at a frantic pace, ordering a large part of its expected yearly requirement in a little over one month and paying a premium in non-dollar currencies to work around toughened sanctions and avoid social unrest.

"With any number of unknowns out there - a potential attack on its nuclear facilities, the possibility that a different administration takes office in the United States, the regime is prudently laying aside (food) stocks in the event things go very wrong," said J. Peter Pham, a director with U.S. think tank the Atlantic Council.

Food shipments are not targeted under western sanctions aimed at Iran's disputed nuclear program, but financial measures have frozen Iranian firms out of much of the global banking system. State-run Government Trading Corporation (GTC) has stepped in to make recent purchases as private Iranian buyers have been sidelined.

"There is not a problem with payments, things are settling down using non-sanctioned banks," one trade source said. "The GTC is using Turkish banks to make payments."

Iran bought around 2 million tonnes of wheat just last month from Russia, Germany, Canada, Brazil and Australia.

Sanctions are worsening an economic crisis which has caused rising prices, shortages of some goods and a collapse of the local currency at a time when other countries in the Middle East are experiencing political and social unrest.

WORKING AROUND THE EMBARGO

Trade sources said Iran was making payments in euros and also U.S. dollars via non-sanctioned banks.

"Apart from Turkish banks, Iran is also facilitating deals via Switzerland and is also using cash in smaller trades as well as even gold," another trade source said. "They are working around the restrictions."

AIS ship tracking data on Reuters showed 12 dry bulk vessels on Friday were anchored outside Bandar Imam Khomeini, one of Iran's largest grain terminals.

At least six of the vessels were larger ships known as panamaxes, which can carry around 60,000 tonnes of grains. A further panamax was on its way to the terminal. Four vessels including one panamax ship had left the port area for new destinations in recent days after unloading, data showed.

"It is still hard to assess the volume of wheat Iran has bought on international markets in recent weeks," another trade source said. "Conservative estimates are 1.5 million tonnes others put the figure at well over 2 million tonnes."

"Most of this is for nearby shipment so I would expect more ships to be arriving in Iranian Gulf ports in coming weeks."

Earlier this month it was revealed Iran had made rare purchases of around 180,000 tonnes of U.S. wheat. Trade sources said there was growing talk of further U.S. purchases despite the escalating standoff with Washington and its allies.

Iran continues to seek large volumes of wheat from sources out of reach of western sanctions. Pakistani officials said on Monday a barter deal for 1 million tonnes had been reached, but an Indian trade delegation failed to agree rupee-based wheat sales.

Payment problems resulting from sanctions halted some deliveries to private Iranian buyers since the start of this year. Ten vessels turned away from Iran to new destinations including Yemen, the United Arab Emirates and Egypt, incurring big losses. The last of them sailed away earlier this month.

"Iran has a lot of money and after a few early problems things are flowing," another trade source said. "We are being paid via Turkey."

The Atlantic Council's Pham said the U.S. was reluctant to impose onerous trade burdens on allies. Earlier this week it granted waivers to Japan and 10 EU countries from financial sanctions after they cut their Iranian oil import purchases.

"The Iranians took it as a signal that if they structured their deals in a complex enough fashion and selected as their partners nominal U.S. allies whom Washington would be loath to have an open and complete rupture with, they might just be allowed to get away with it. Turkey is a good example," he said.
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#16995
Re: Iran ups 'ante' in poker-game with West 2 Years, 7 Months ago Karma: 264
There was an interesting observation by Sinclair which I wish I would have thought to make first (lol).

As noted in another post today, other nations (mostly involving China) have already engaged in NUMEROUS currency-swaps, which end the use of USD's in more and more global trade. Understand that the ONLY THING which has propped up the USD over the past 20 years (when it has STILL lost more than half its value) is the fact that it is NECESSARY for most international trade - and thus all nations need to hold large quantities.

Conversely, not only will demand for USD's completely dry-up once it ceases to be used as reserve currency, but the $TRILLIONS held by foreign nations will get dumped onto the market - as no one wants to hold that dying currency.

Meanwhile, we have U.S. antagonism toward Iran now causing Iran to stop using USD's in its oil trade. Arguably, even more than the absurd "nuclear threat" issue, what REALLY frightens the Axis of Evil is that this is another HUGE "leak" in the USD Ponzi-scheme - as another large chunk of international trade swaps-out USD's.

Recall that when the U.S. invaded Iraq that Iraq was ALSO in the process of phasing-out USD's in its oil trade.

IF the West starts a war with Iran, understand what the REAL reason will be!!





www.jsmineset.com/

...If a country doesn’t prove it’s making the necessary reductions by the end of June, any institution in that nation that settles petroleum trades through Iran’s central bank will be cut off from the U.S. banking system."

This is terribly ill advised and poorly timed. It smells like a threat of selective lockout via the Swift system.

At a time when the US dollar is sundering as the major international settlement mechanism this is the last thing that dollar managers should consider. Whoever came up with this idea has no appreciation of two points – the weakness of the Western financial system and whatever weapon of war will be used in kind.

The major financial weakness in the US is the level of the US dollar due to sundering use in international contract settlement, the clear and present trend of substituting both the Yuan and Euro as international settlement currencies, and the lack of true economic buyers in the US long bond market.

History will record this decision at this time as a major factor in the final move to financial unwind in the West...
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