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Shadow of Truth - Our Deteriorating Economy

Posted by: RoryTDC

Tagged in: Untagged 

RoryTDC

As we progress through the week the economic noise is subsiding. The damage was done earlier in the week and the Federal Reserve has spent most of its time attempting to spread the word about raising interest rates. The Federal Reserve can NEVER raise interest rates, as the moment they do the dollar will sell off and implode. Game over. So, whenever you hear Janet Yellen discussing raising interest this is merely an attempt to keep the ponzi going and the dollar propped up.

 

Speaking of Federal Reserve chairs, Alan Greenspan is out making another attempt at saving his legacy. I believe he is another agent sent out in to the markets, the same as Jim Rickards, to tell the people their is a collapse in the making. The elite believe it to be in poor taste to not tell the serfs what is going to happen. They need agents in order to get their message out and I believe these two men serve that purpose.

 

Continue Reading and Watch Video>>> http://thedailycoin.org/?p=20254


Shadow of Truth - End of the War Dollar

Posted by: RoryTDC

Tagged in: Untagged 

RoryTDC

The past several years I have heard the US dollar being referred to as the "petro-dollar" insinuating that oil is actually what backs the dollar. Close, but not exactly accurate. What backs the US dollar is war. The military is the backing force for the US dollar. Saddam Hussein and Moammar Gadhafi are prime examples of what happens if you decide exchanging your oil for something other than US dollars is a good idea. It's not going to happen. Tomahawk missiles for everyone!! 110 Tomahawk missiles were dropped on Libya in one day. 110. 

 

<a href="http://thedailycoin.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/ORD_BGM-109_Tomahawk_Block_IV_Cutaway_lg.gif"><img src="http://thedailycoin.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/ORD_BGM-109_Tomahawk_Block_IV_Cutaway_lg-300x234.gif" alt="war DEFENSE INDUSTRY DAILY" width="300" height="234" class="alignnone size-medium wp-image-19757" /></a>

<a href="http://media.defenceindustrydaily.com/images/ORD_BGM-109_Tomahawk_Block_IV_Cutaway_lg.gif">image source</a>

 

We take a look at the new SWIFT system launched, well ahead of time, by Russia and the impact that it will have on the war-dollar. With China already applying pressure to the war-dollar via the direct currency swaps, this new system will only make the war-dollar less desirable on the global stage. 

 

Several economic indicators hit the wire today, not a single piece of good economic information was released. The housing market continues it's slide south, the west coast longshoreman's strike continues and, of course, gold and silver were both monkey-hammered. But what would you expect with such great economic news flowing from the four corners of the United States.

 

<iframe width="350" height="240" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/CnPwxT_hDw8" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>


Shadow of Truth - End of the War Dollar

Posted by: RoryTDC

Tagged in: Untagged 

RoryTDC

The past several years I have heard the US dollar being referred to as the "petro-dollar" insinuating that oil is actually what backs the dollar. Close, but not exactly accurate. What backs the US dollar is war. The military is the backing force for the US dollar. Saddam Hussein and Moammar Gadhafi are prime examples of what happens if you decide exchanging your oil for something other than US dollars is a good idea. It's not going to happen. Tomahawk missiles for everyone!! 110 Tomahawk missiles were dropped on Libya in one day. 110. 

 

<a href="http://thedailycoin.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/ORD_BGM-109_Tomahawk_Block_IV_Cutaway_lg.gif"><img src="http://thedailycoin.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/ORD_BGM-109_Tomahawk_Block_IV_Cutaway_lg-300x234.gif" alt="war DEFENSE INDUSTRY DAILY" width="300" height="234" class="alignnone size-medium wp-image-19757" /></a>

<a href="http://media.defenceindustrydaily.com/images/ORD_BGM-109_Tomahawk_Block_IV_Cutaway_lg.gif">image source</a>

 

We take a look at the new SWIFT system launched, well ahead of time, by Russia and the impact that it will have on the war-dollar. With China already applying pressure to the war-dollar via the direct currency swaps, this new system will only make the war-dollar less desirable on the global stage. 

 

Several economic indicators hit the wire today, not a single piece of good economic information was released. The housing market continues it's slide south, the west coast longshoreman's strike continues and, of course, gold and silver were both monkey-hammered. But what would you expect with such great economic news flowing from the four corners of the United States.

 

<iframe width="350" height="240" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/CnPwxT_hDw8" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>


Winning Strategies for 2015

Posted by: Deepcaster

Tagged in: myblog

Deepcaster

Not since The Great Depression have there been such Formidable Challenges to those who wish to Profit and Protect their Wealth.

If it were not clear before 2008, the Fall, 2008 Markets Crash, Credit Freeze, and Financial Institutions Collapse and subsequent unprecedented Central Bank Interventions, and ongoing Economic Difficulties all make it clear, that we have entered into a New High Risk Era in the Economy and Markets. And the “Mixed” (at best) Fundamentals, and Key Technicals (e.g., repeated recent Hindenberg Omens) confirm that.

Several Time-honored Investment Strategies and Techniques have been largely Discredited and Serious New Risks, including The Threats of another Market Meltdown and Hyperinflation — i.e., Major Central Banks’ ongoing Competitive Monetary Inflation leading eventually to Price Inflation — abound. In fact, we already see Price Inflation in Food, Housing and Medical Care Costs.

Indeed, given the ongoing, intensifying EconomicDeflation (as we write in January, 2015), it increasingly appears that we are headed into a Stagflationary World — a Stagnant or Contracting Economy with eventual and increasing Price Inflation.

This Transition requires discarding some strategies, modifying others and adopting some new ones. For example, the formerly widely accepted “Rule” of “Buy and Hold” for the long Term is in the process of being discredited.

As we write, the Major Equities Markets are Trading around their all-time Nominal highs — but also have caused typical “Buy and Hold” for-the-long-term Investors to Lose Purchasing Power in the past decade, at least 30% for those in certain Sectors, when adjusted for Real Price Inflation (Official Statistics are often Bogus, see Shadowstats Note 1 below).

The 2000-2002 Internet Bubble Burst, and the Housing/Equities Bubble Burst of 2008-2009 should have provided Sufficient Remedial “Education” to “Buy and Hold” Devotees…. And they are about to get “educated” again in the next few months. The essential corollary to these object lessons is that you do not have profits unless you take them.

But such Challenges Provide Great Opportunities for Profit , while at the same time Require Great Vigilance to Avoid Wealth Destruction. In view of the aforementioned, consider the following Strategies

1) “Beta — the Tendency of a security’s return to respond to swings in the Market” Investopedia.

One Important Strategy is first to consider “Beta” (before buying a Security based on its Alpha Potential) by Investing or Speculating to achieve Profit from Broad Market or Sector Trends, not only from Uptrends but also from Downtrends. Consider Beta above all, because even the strongest individual Securities and their underlying businesses are often vulnerable to Equities Market Crashes. The Evidence indicates that Beta-Followers perform better than mere Alpha-Seekers. Virtually all Securities have some degree of Beta and those who disregard it do so at their peril.

Even so, of course, one should also seek Alpha (Potential Appreciation or Depreciation of Individual Securities) in addition to Beta with specific Selections which we expect to Rise or Fall more than the Rise or Fall of any particular Sector. And this applies to Commodities investing as well.

2) As well, we have periodically recommended seeking Profits via Short Positions mainly via Exchange Traded Fund including leveraged ETFs. Why not Profit when Markets Fall as well as when they rise? There are several Good Reasons to do so. Several of Deepcaster’s Recommendations did quite well in the 2008-2009 Crash, (Note 2 below re Mega-Bank Cartel) when “Buy and Hold” Investors were losing their shirts.

It is essential to invest and speculate on the short side (usually using ETFs or Options) as well as on the long side. We forecast that 2015 will once again prove this “rule.”

3) Divide Assets among Four Categories:

i) Fortress Assets — meant to be held for several months or a few years only, with, however, a very few exceptions (e.g., Gold, Productive Farmland). We reiterate: Those who do not take Profit do not Profit;

ii) High Yield Assets (but the Total Return must exceed Real Inflation [See Note 1]);

iii) Speculation both on the long and short side; and

iv) Liquid Assets e.g., Cash in Non-Devaluing Currencies (e.g., Swiss Francs).

Thus the Key to Profit and Wealth Protection is to trade in and out of any or all of these at the right time. For example, for our Fortress Assets Value Portfolio, we tend to favor (but not exclusively) Investments at the right time in Real Assets (such as Agricultural products in relatively inelastic Demand) as opposed to Financial Assets (See our “Opportunities to Profitably Escape Paper “Wealth” into 2011” (10/07/10) in the ‘Articles by Deepcaster’ Cache) which can suffer greatly in Market Crashes. But Financial Assets can perform quite well in Bull Markets.

4) The Caveat “at the right time,” is crucially important. Because as the 2012-2015 Bearish Commodities Period has shown, Real Assets (e.g., Commodities) can and do go through Bearish as well as Bullish Cycles. (Yet another reason that Investors who Buy and Hold for Many Years or Decades, can and do get wiped out.)

Indeed, as we write, in January 2015, the Markets are undergoing yet another Major Trend Transition in which several heretofore Bullish Sectors are moving into a Bearish Mode, and a Few from Bearish into Bullish Mode. The Crucial Key is to do ongoing Sector by Sector analysis as we do when we identify these in our Sector Forecasts and make Buy Recommendations as in our January Letter and Alerts recently posted at Deepcaster.com.

This “Major Trend Transition” is due in large part to the fact that the Economy is moving into Stagflation — Stagnant or Contracting (e.g., Eurozone and Japan) Economies coupled with ongoing and increasing Monetary Inflation (via the Central Banks, e.g., the ECB and Japan) — which will increasingly begin to result in Key Sector Price Inflation, and already has in some Sectors.

Indeed, Major Central Banks Massive Intensifying Printing of Fiat Currency increasingly heightens the Risk of Hyperinflation as well as Economic Stagnation, because it is Capital-Destructive — as Central Banks print more and more, they devalue what was heretofore a Store of Wealth in a Currency. This is the Great Defect of Fiat Currencies. Thus, the World of Financial Assets is increasingly fraught with Danger for Investors, as the Market Crash of the Fall, 2008, and the intensifying Economic and Financial Crises around the World attest.

5) Interventions — Stay apprised of ongoing and intensifying Central Bank and Governmental Market Interventions and Manipulations. As many of our Articles (and increasing numbers of Investment Analysts) demonstrate, the Private For-Profit Fed is the lead Actor of a Cartel (Note 2) of Central Bankers and Agents and Allies is engaged in Manipulation of a Variety of Markets, and especially in ongoing suppression of Gold and Silver Prices, because heightened Investor Interest in these Precious Monetary Metals would tend to devalue and delegitimize the Central Bankers Treasury Securities and Fiat Currencies. (See Note 2.)

These Interventions Require that, to the extent possible, Investors and Speculators track The Interventionals, as well as the Fundamentals and Technicals as Deepcaster does. Attention to all these has facilitated Recent Profits Taken (Note 3). And Attention to all three has also enabled our Forecasts for 2015 laid out in our January 2015 Letter in ‘Latest Letters and Archives’ at Deepcaster.com.

In order to adequately track the Interventionals, it is essential to consult Independent Information Sources since much of the Mainstream Media either Spin, or Distort, or entirely Black-out Information Crucial to both Investors and Traders.

In sum, success in 2015 will require that Speculators and Investors be well and broadly educated and nimble, very nimble.

Note 1: Shadowstats.com calculates Key Statistics the way they were calculated in the 1980s and 1990s before Official Data Manipulation began in earnest. Consider

Bogus Official Numbers vs. Real Numbers (per Shadowstats.com)

Annual U.S. Consumer Price Inflation reported January 16, 2015
1.32%     /    9.02%

U.S. Unemployment reported January 9, 2015
5.56%     /     23.0%

U.S. GDP Annual Growth/Decline reported December 23, 2014
2.70%        /     -1.73%

U.S. M3 reported January 23, 2015 (Month of December, Y.O.Y.)
No Official Report     /   5.03% (i.e., total M3 Now at $16.303 Trillion!)

Note 2: We encourage those who doubt the scope and power of Overt and Covert Interventions by a Fed-led Cartel of Key Central Bankers and Favored Financial Institutions to read Deepcaster’s July, 2014 Letter entitled "Profit, Protection, Despite Cartel Intervention" in the ‘Latest Letter’ Cache at www.deepcaster.com. Also consider the substantial evidence collected by the Gold AntiTrust Action Committee at www.gata.org, including testimony before the CFTC, for information on precious metals price manipulation, and manipulation in other Markets. Virtually all of the evidence for Intervention has been gleaned from publicly available records. Deepcaster’s profitable recommendations displayed at www.deepcaster.com have been facilitated by attention to these “Interventionals.” Attention to The Interventionals facilitated Deepcaster’s recommending five short positions prior to the Fall, 2008 Market Crash all of which were subsequently liquidated profitably.

Note 3: Our attention to Key Timing Signals and Interventionals and accurate statistics has facilitated Recommendations which have performed well lately. Consider our profits taken in recent months in our Speculative and Fortress Assets Portfolios*

  • 45% Profit on a Double Currency Short ETF on January 22, 2015 after just 9 months (i.e., about 59% Annualized)
  • 23% Profit on a leveraged ETN on the Volatility Index on January 6, 2015 after just 119 days (i.e., about 70% Annualized)
  • 85% Profit on a REIT on December 31, 2014 after just three years (i.e., about 25% Annualized)
  • 105% Profit on a leveraged ETN on the Volatility Index on October 15, 2014 after just 36 days (i.e., about 1090% Annualized)
  • 70% Profit on Russell 2000 Small Cap Sector Put on October 10, 2014 after just 2 days (i.e., about 12,275% Annualized)
  • 70% Profit on Russell 2000 Small Cap Sector Put on October 1, 2014 after just 8 days (i.e., about 3215% Annualized)
  • 55% Profit on Double Short Euro Call on August 6, 2014 after just 106 days (i.e., about 200% Annualized)
  • 65% Profit on Energy Storage & Management Company on July7 15, 2014 after just 342 days (i.e., about 70% Annualized)
  • 95% Profit on Crude Oil Call on June 11, 2014 after just 73 days (i.e., about 470% Annualized)

*Past Profitable Performance is no assurance of future Profitable Performance.

 


 

“The Fed is in total denial…(it) hasn’t learned the lessons of what it put the world through a decade ago.”

Stephen Roach, via CNBC, 01/09/2015

"When the year is done, there will be minus signs in front of returns for many asset classes. The good times are over."

Bill Gross, Founder & former CEO, PIMCO

We focus here on Key Profit Opportunities, Threats and possible Catastrophes for 2015, few, if any, of which you are likely to hear about from the Main Stream Media (MSM), before they occur because the MSM are beholden to the Powers-that-Be.

1) Contrary to MSM spin, the Middle Class in the U.S. and Eurozone and Japan has been and will increasingly suffer jobs loss and wage stagnation, thus constraining consumer spending — 70% of the U.S. Economy, for example. Official Statistics are Bogus. Thus the economic Non-Recovery will Continue and worsen (see Note 1 – Shadowstats). The U.S. Labor Force Participation Rate is at record lows — a 38 year record of 92.9 Million Americans are not in the Labor Force. The Strong U.S. Bond Market is signaling trouble ahead. If the Economy were really recovering Bonds would be weaker and Market Interest Rates much higher.

2) QE will continue in Japan, intensify in Europe and begin again in the USA withQE5 likely beginning before 2015 ends — All to continue to artificially inflate Asset Prices (e.g., Equities) and keep the Globalist Mega-Banks (some of whom are owners of the private-for-profit U.S. Fed) Profitable. Of course, none of this helps the Middle Class Workers/Savers or Retirees whose incomes are mainly reliant on Good Jobs or Low Unemployment and/or interest income from savings.

3) QE will likely be ineffective (at best) in Japan and indeed, it is more likely than not the Japanese Economy will collapse into the Pit of Extreme Economic Deflation/Depression, sending shockwaves through Markets around the World.

4) Increasing Social Strife around the World will begin to significantly affect the Markets. A collapsing Economy in Japan, increasing Under- and Unemployment in the Eurozone and USA and clashes between Obama and the Congress in the U.S. and Debt Defaults in the Eurozone and U.S. will all take their Toll.

5) Interest Rates may begin to rise (but likely slowly) so Sectors which rely on Debt Financing — e.g., Utilities, MLPs and smaller relatively undercapitalized Energy Producers — will not do well (indeed, some will collapse) and China will take a hit from their over-extended Shadow Banking System, as will other over-indebted Sovereigns.

6) Indeed — we are moving into a period of increasing visibility for the Intensifying International Debt Crisis. As rates rise, (beginning later in 2015 but no later than early 2016) not only will businesses and individuals suffer, but also over-indebted Sovereigns who will have to pay higher interest rates. And not just the Peripheral Sovereigns in Europe, but also the U.S. which has $18 Trillion in Debt and over $120 Trillion in Downstream Unfunded Liabilities (Social Security, Medicare etc.) Result: The U.S. Dollar, first, (probably beginning later in 2015) and then the U.S. Bond Market will eventually crash.

7) Central Banks will engage in ever-more QE, i.e., Monetary Inflation, and this will increasingly show up in Price Inflation and then Price Hyperinflation. Indeed, Consumers are already seeing Price Inflation in Food, Medical Care and Housing. (See Note 1)

8) All the above will result in the condition known as Severe Stagflation — Stagnant or contracting Economies and Price Inflation and then Price Hyperinflation. Dramatically increased Sovereign and other Debt Loads have not increased GDP. Consider that for every $ of Debt Added Just After WWII, $2.41 of GDP were added but for every $ added in the late 70s, and early 80s, only 41 cents of GDP was added and for every $ of Debt added today, only 3 cents GDP is added. In sum, QE/Debt increase does not sustainably boost Economic Growth.

9) Yes, the Credit/Debt Crisis is Real and Not Sustainable — for every $ of Economic Growth, Banks have created $30 of Credit/Debt. This Massive Bond/Debt Bubble will likely Catastrophically burst in 2015-2016 with the Accompanying Defaults or Write Offs, and Counterparty Failures in Major Markets.

The Entire Energy industry has been hit hard by the Oil Price Decline. This will cause increased unemployment and reduced corporate earnings which will Tsunami into the entire economy making the Non-Recovery Worse than it already is.

And the Weak Players in the Energy Industry will Default on their Debts and cause a similar ripple effect through the Banking Industry and entire Economy.

Consider that Crude Prices at or below $60 not only puts poorly capitalized frackers out of business but also causes in the tsunami effect of prospective or, in some cases, actual, defaults on Energy loans (many of which are highly leveraged to Asset Bases) and thus causes defaults on Related highly leveraged Derivatives. And all this will diminish Production, and thus will increase prices again in a few months.

The Counterparty Failure Risk in Financial Markets has thus increased dramatically, and will not diminish any time soon, and will Tsunami through the economy and financial Markets.

And once that risk begins to imperil Non-Energy Sectors, Corporate Debt Interest Rates will Skyrocket and it will be time for the Equities Markets to seriously fall, again.

In addition, there are many Black and Red Swans extant which could/will precipitate a Greater launch down this year at any time — War, Major Sovereign Defaults, Worse Economic Numbers — the list is too long to mention all.

10) Most of the Foregoing Financial “Assets” are leveraged more unsustainably and dangerously by the over $700 Trillion plus in Derivatives as reported by the Central Bankers’ Bank, the BIS. $700 Trillion is about 7 times Global GDP.

For the middle and long-term (i.e., mid 2015 & Beyond), given the USA’s Massive and increasing $18 Trillion National Debt and over $100 Trillion Downstream Unfunded Liabilities and The Feds $4 Trillion Balance Sheet, the $US is Structurally Impaired (as are U.S. Treasuries) and doomed to fall and lose World’s Reserve Currency Status, eventually. Great Profits will be made if one shorts the $US and U.S. Treasuries and the Equities Markets at the right time. We aim to forecast that Timing as we successfully did prior to the 2008 Crash. Our forecasts were facilitated by focusing on Interventions of The Cartel of Mega-Banks as well as Fundamentals and Technicals (see Note 2). Stay tuned.

Consider as well, the ongoing increasing use of currencies other than the $US in International Transactions could spell a Sooner Doom for the $US (as World Reserve Currency, especially if increased significant Volumes of Crude Oil begin to be traded for Non $US Currencies. The West is driving Russia into the hands of China, and this is Bad News for the $US and Western economies.

And when the $US Dramatically Tanks, the Precious Metals will Soar and Western Equities Markets Crash. This scenario could possibly launch at any time (but is probably still a few months away), on Black Swan Geopolitical Events. This $US Crash will shake Economies and Markets to the core, as the Economy transitions to a Yuan/BRICS based Gold Backed World Reserve Currency.

And when the $US Tanks, that will also be accompanied by a loss of credibility of U.S. Treasuries as a store of wealth soon after. Thus they will tank too … ending in “a very bad way” according to Investment Legend, Julian Robertson, with whom Deepcaster agrees.

11) The Russia-China Axis is Strengthening, with Both Countries buying increasing amounts of Physical Gold. Result: sometime in the next very few years, the New World Reserve Currency will be the Chinese/BRICS Gold Backed Yuan or Gold-backed BRICS Notes. The view that the New World Reserve Currency will be IMF SDRs is Wrong. IMF SDRs are just another Fiat Currency doomed to fail.

12) The Flight from the $US as World Reserve Currency (catalyzed mainly by Fed/Keynesian Policy!) is continuing with China making Bilateral Currency Swap Deals with a number of leading Nations thus bypassing the $US. Eventually this will greatly diminish the Standard of living in the USA and other $US-dependent Nations. The Fiat Euro/Eurozone will take a Huge Hit Also. Indeed, there is a distinct possibility the Eurozone Currency Union will disintegrate.

13) The foregoing Developments/Trends can/will be exacerbated/initiated by Trigger Events some of which May be

  • Greece and/or Portugal and/or Spain Defaults/leaves Eurozone
  • Other Peripheral Countries Default
  • Venezuela and/or Nigeria default due to low Oil Prices
  • The LBMA is unable to Deliver Physical Gold and/or Silver
  • War intensifies in the Mideast and/or Ukraine or breaks out elsewhere

14) Mainstream Keynesian Economists and those governments who follow their line, typically aim for the Wrong Targetincreased aggregate GDP Growth, when they should be aiming for greater GDP per capita in a “Steady State” Economy (see the Work of Economist Herman Daly). This Keynesian view leads to a variety of flawed policies including the one that assumes that population growth is Good-in-itself. In the U.S. and Eurozone, for example, this has led to the Counterproductive Policy which encourages Mass Immigration. In fact this Policy results in larger and larger social-welfare-Dependent Populations, and the Diversity it brings generates loss of Social Cohesion. And this Mass Immigration Decreases Job Opportunities and Wages for the Native-born ("Foreign-born employment has increased by 1,028,000, while the number of native-born Americans working has decreased by 780,000" Rubenstein, vDare.com, 11/8/14) in the receiving Societies. Highly selective and extremely limited immigration creates better results Economically and Socially. (See the non-profit www.carryingcapacity.org)

15) But all of the foregoing will lead to Opportunities to Profit and Protect Wealth. Consider

Nowhere in the MSM for example do we find forecasts that two Key Assets will skyrocket in Price very soon — but Deepcaster forecasts which ones in our January, 2015 Letter and our Forecasts and our Successful Buy Recommendations are informed by our attention to Under and Unreported News (see Note 3).

And nowhere in the MSM do we find Forecasts of a Great Reversal in two other Key Assets Sectors, but we tell you in our January Letter.

And we Forecast a Very Great Crash in one Sector — and name names of two very popular Stocks which should take a Very Big Hit.

Conclusion : The Equities Market will suffer at least one Major Crash (more than 15%) and at least one Minor Crash (appx 10%) in 2015.

(In sum, essential to all the Foregoing Forecasts, and to Profiting and Wealth Protection is focusing on Under and Unreported News and MSM spin.)

Best regards,

Deepcaster
January 9, 2015

Note 1: *Shadowstats.com calculates Key Statistics the way they were calculated in the 1980s and 1990s before Official Data Manipulation began in earnest. Consider

Bogus Official Numbers vs. Real Numbers (per Shadowstats.com)

Annual U.S. Consumer Price Inflation reported December 17, 2014
1.32%     /    9.02%

U.S. Unemployment reported January 9, 2015
5.56%     /     23.0%

U.S. GDP Annual Growth/Decline reported December 23, 2014
2.70%        /     -1.73%

U.S. M3 reported December 15, 2014 (Month of November, Y.O.Y.)
No Official Report     /   4.81% (i.e., total M3 Now at $16.217 Trillion!)

Note 2: We encourage those who doubt the scope and power of Overt and Covert Interventions by a Fed-led Cartel of Key Central Bankers and Favored Financial Institutions to read Deepcaster’s July, 2014 Letter entitled "Profit, Protection, Despite Cartel Intervention" in the ‘Latest Letter’ Cache at www.deepcaster.com. Also consider the substantial evidence collected by the Gold AntiTrust Action Committee at www.gata.org, including testimony before the CFTC, for information on precious metals price manipulation. Virtually all of the evidence for Intervention has been gleaned from publicly available records. Deepcaster’s profitable recommendations displayed at www.deepcaster.com have been facilitated by attention to these “Interventionals.” Attention to The Interventionals facilitated Deepcaster’s recommending five short positions prior to the Fall, 2008 Market Crash all of which were subsequently liquidated profitably.

Note 3: Our attention to Key Timing Signals and Interventionals and accurate statistics has facilitated Recommendations which have performed well lately. Consider our profits taken in recent months in our Speculative and Fortress Assets Portfolios*

  • 23% Profit on a leveraged ETN on the Volatility Index on January 6, 2015 after just 119 days (i.e., about 70% Annualized)
  • 85% Profit on a REIT on December 31, 2014 after just three years (i.e., about 25% Annualized)
  • 105% Profit on a leveraged ETN on the Volatility Index on October 15, 2014 after just 36 days (i.e., about 1090% Annualized)
  • 70% Profit on Russell 2000 Small Cap Sector Put on October 10, 2014 after just 2 days (i.e., about 12,275% Annualized)
  • 70% Profit on Russell 2000 Small Cap Sector Put on October 1, 2014 after just 8 days (i.e., about 3215% Annualized)
  • 55% Profit on Double Short Euro Call on August 6, 2014 after just 106 days (i.e., about 200% Annualized)
  • 65% Profit on Energy Storage & Management Company on July7 15, 2014 after just 342 days (i.e., about 70% Annualized)
  • 95% Profit on Crude Oil Call on June 11, 2014 after just 73 days (i.e., about 470% Annualized)

*Past Profitable Performance is no assurance of future Profitable Performance.


The real story behind Pearl Harbor

Posted by: ettienn

Tagged in: Untagged 

ettienn

http://jamesperloff.com/2014/11/06/pearl-harbor-roosevelts-911/

 

Check it out.  Very well written and, if true, very insightful.


Profiting from the Inflation/Deflation Puzzle

Posted by: Deepcaster

Tagged in: myblog

Deepcaster

Investors are getting mixed Messages about whether we are facing an Inflationary or Deflationary Future. Answering that question correctly is important both to profitability and protecting wealth.

Major Bankers and some Government Officials Claim they are worried about Deflation.

But rising costs for Health Care, Food and, until recently, Energy, indicate we face an inflationary, and perhaps even a hyperinflationary, future.

Which is it? Inflation or Deflation?

Some sectors have clearly been Deflating in Price in recent months.

— Crude Oil

— Copper

But other Sectors have been Inflating in Price:

— U.S. Equities

— Beef Cattle

— Corn

— Soybeans

— Healthcare

Still, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics claimed that October 2014 U.S. Inflation (CPI-U) is tame at an annual pace of 1.66%.

But, ShadowStats.com pegs Actual U.S. Consumer Price Inflation at an annual 9.38% for the same period.

— And the Biggest Inflation Category of them all — Central Bank Monetary Inflation in all its forms — is roaring ahead. Consider that Japan, China, and the Eurozone are all in the process of devaluing their currencies one way or another

— the ongoing Currency Wars about which we have been writing.

What gives? How can we reconcile Shadowstats U.S. Consumer Price Inflation of 9.38% (clearly correct in our view) with the Clear Price Deflation in other Sectors and Central Bankers complaining they are concerned about Deflation?

Understanding how they are to be properly considered and reconciled provides Great Opportunities for Profit and Wealth Protection going forward.

Failing to Understand and “Reconcile” this Inflation/Deflation Conundrum will create substantial Risk of Loss.

So how are Inflation and Deflation to be Understood and “reconciled”? Nearly two years ago The Bond King, Bill Gross opined

“The future price tag of printing six trillion dollars’ worth of checks comes in the form of inflation and devaluation of currencies either relative to each other, or to commodities in less limitless supply such as oil or gold.  

Zero-bound interest rates, QE maneuvering, and ‘essentially costless’ check writing destroy business models and stunt investment decisions which offer increasingly lower ROIs and ROEs.”

Bill Gross, Founder & formerly Co-CIO, PIMCO, 1/3/2013

Indeed, for several years, Notable Independent Commentators, including Deepcaster, have warned that the Elite Central Banks’ Orgy of Fiat Currency Printing, a la QE etc., would eventually result in Price Inflation. And we reiterate that Warning here.

So it was no surprise to us that The Bond King, Bill Gross formerly of PIMCO, with about $2 Trillion under Management, would finally warn, in his January, 2013 letter to Investors, of Impending Price Inflation in Key Asset Classes. And that Price Inflation is now underway in some Asset Classes but not in others.

Clearly, the Central Banks Hypermonetary Inflation has maintained the Profitability of their Primary Clients (in The Fed’s case, owners) the Mega Banks and elevated Equities Prices.

Case in point — the Uptrending U.S. Equities Chart of S&P Price Inflation since 2009 has almost exactly Tracked the Uptrending Balance Sheet of The Fed.

S&P chart from McClellan Oscilator 

(Thanks to McClellan of McClellan Oscillator Fame for permission to reprint.)

And now that The Fed is “Merely” Repurchasing the same Amount of Treasuries as those which mature, the Equities Markets are Topping! Fancy that!

The Hypermonetary Inflation has created and Sustained the Price Inflation (in U.S. in particular) in Equities.

And Note that the Price Inflation in certain Food Commodities has arguably been more influenced by Traditional Supply and Demand (80 Million more people in the World each Year and many with more disposable Income).

In short, Food Commodities Prices are less susceptible to (but not immune from) the Price Suppression which Major Central Banks have been employing to Suppress Gold and Silver Prices.

On the same principle, the recently Deflating Price of Crude Oil is commonly viewed mainly as a function of a recent (albeit temporary) above ground oversupply, plus reduced Market Expectations of supplies being diminished by War or other Disasters, plus the Saudis desire to maintain Market Share. But, perhaps above all, recently lower Crude Prices are a Result of an Increasingly Strong $US, and related covert efforts by the U.S. et al to punish Russia. Eighty percent of the time, oil prices fall when the $US strengthens and vice versa. (cf. Shadowstats.com)

But consider that Prices for Essential Good and Services — Food, Health Care, Utilities, Housing and, until just recently, Energy — have all been dramatically inflating in price in recent years.

Thus we can see why Shadowstats.com’s calculation of Consumer Price Inflation 9.38% is accurate.

So consider the following which explains why the official U.S. annual inflation rate of 1.66% is well below what most people are experiencing in their current day-to-day living.

Since 1980, the government made numerous changes to the methodology used in calculating CPI inflation, with the effect of significantly reducing reported inflation from what it would have been otherwise. The ShadowStats estimate adds back into current official reporting the inflation that was removed by the government's changes.

This reduction in official CPI inflation reporting of recent decades was a deliberate and successful effort by the U.S. government to cut expenses, by creating artificially low cost-of-living adjustments for programs such as Social Security; and to increase tax revenues, with artificially accelerating upside income-tax-bracket shifts.

As a result, today's official CPI no longer measures Consumer Inflation in a manner that is useful or meaningful to individuals as a guide for setting minimum targets for annual income adjustment or for annual investment returns. Generally not understood by the public, current CPI reporting no longer measures the cost-of-living of maintaining a constant-standard-of-living, and it no longer reflects inflation consistent with out-of-pocket expenses. The specifics of the various CPI understatement issues and ShadowStats alternate-inflation estimates are found in Public Commentary on Inflation Measurement. See also Note 1 below for Real U.S. Economic Statistics per Shadowstats.

— But then why are many Central Bankers and Economists expressing concern about Deflation?

Let's first differentiate clearly between several uses of the “Inflation” and “Deflation” terms, concepts that not always are set forth explicitly when a Market Pundit, Economist or Central Banker expresses concern about Inflation or Deflation. These concepts also may appear, at times, to be contradictory. Generally, Inflation may refer to rising consumer or asset prices, or to increasing money supply growth (other measures have been developed specifically for wholesale pricing measures, economic measures, etc.), while Deflation may refer to falling consumer or asset prices, or to declining money supply growth, etc.

Consumer Inflation reflects changes in the costs of consumer goods and services. Most popularly, it is measured in the United States by a version of the official Consumer Price Index (CPI). ShadowStats offers an alternate consumer inflation measure.

Asset Inflation reflects that general appreciation or depreciation of a specific class of assets, such as stocks, bonds, commodities, housing, etc. As an example of potential inconsistencies, an asset deflation, such as a collapsing stock market, is not necessarily inconsistent with rising prices for consumer goods and services or consumer inflation.

Monetary Inflation reflects annual change in the various measures of the money supply, or money in the economy and financial system. Rapidly rising monetary inflation commonly is a direct causal factor in asset inflation, specifically equity markets. The relationship of money growth with consumer inflation is positive, but it is not always as obvious as it should be, due to significant differences in the definitions and estimations of consumer inflation, inflation for Gross Domestic Product (GDP), GDP and the various measures of money supply.

— But, again, why are many Central Bankers and Economists expressing concern about Deflation?

— The big Deflation concern leading into the crisis of 2008 was in terms of a possible failure in the banking system, with a crash in the money supply as well as in consumer and asset prices, effectively a 1930s-style depression and deflation. A large number of banks failed in the early-1930s, depositors lost their assets, the money supply crashed, consumer and prices collapsed along with the economy. In 2008, all deposits were guaranteed and extraordinary efforts were undertaken to prop both the U.S. and global banking systems.

— Although many of the 2008 concerns, economic and financial instabilities persist, (indeed the Monetary Inflation Bubble now being created by The Fed and other Central Banks is Great Cause for Concern) much of that current Asset Deflation concerns stem from the fact that Major Economies — China, the Eurozone, the U.S. — are slowing, i.e., experiencing Economic Deflation as it were.

For another thing, in the realm of Monetary Inflation, the Velocity of Money (the annual turnover the money supply in the broad economy) is at record lows — indeed, at Pre-Depression levels.

In a related area, the Mega Banks are not lending much to “Main Street” preferring to keep Reserves overnight at The Fed, where they can earn 25 BPS worth of Easy Money for doing Nothing.

But The Main Reason for concern about the Deflation in Economic Activity is that Major Economies, the U.S. included, have never come out of Recession, and indeed are slowing and in some cases contracting. And this Economic Malaise is Worsening in all Major Economies notwithstanding the Main Stream Media Hype that the U.S. is recovering. This is the Deflation about which the Central Banks and Economists worry.

— In a word, what we now have is Worsening STAGFLATION. Stagnant and Worsening (i.e., Deflating) Economies and Inflating Prices of many Essential Goods and Services to the Consumer. There is little the Central Banks can do to stimulate economy activity, but they can create unhealthy inflation and increasingly unstable financial markets—the worst of all worlds, and that is what they are doing in their attempt to prop up the Banks, above all.

— Where Central Banks talk of creating inflation with their massive easings, it is first, not an consumer inflation created by a sudden new burst of economic activity, which would be a relatively positive development (there is little the Central Banks can do to stimulate economic demand). Rather it creates a cost-push commodity-based inflation from a weakened domestic currency. Until recently, a deliberately debased U.S. dollar had triggered higher oil and gasoline prices, spiking domestic consumer prices in energy and other categories. In sum, even official U.S. consumer inflation numbers would begin to soar, if the current $US strength should reverse into a tumble.

Second, continued Central Bank pumping up of money stocks is a very deliberate effort to fuel a continuing rise in the value of equity assets, and support Bank Profits.

— By comparison, consider the coincident and deteriorating Stagflation conditions — look at the U.S., for example, where the recent lousy Consumer Confidence Numbers reflect this Reality on “Main Street.”

Also in the U.S., New Home Sales Figures were revised Lower in the third Quarter, consistent with Historical Recessions and Durable Goods Orders are on track for Flat-to-Down Activity for Fourth Quarter 2014. (cf. Shadowstats.com)

Couple that with the fact that Western Europe and the U.S. are in the process of inundating themselves with Masses of largely Dependent Immigrants; thus the U.S. and Eurozone’s Economic Future is Darkening.

For example, consider the Employment Environment for Millions of Unemployed and underemployed Americans — just since July 2014 foreign-born employment increased by 1,028,000, while native-born employment decreased by 780,000 (Rubenstein, VDare.com).

Harvard Prof. George Borjas estimates that the U.S.A.’s CURRENT high immigration — legal (over One Million per Year) and illegal — results in a $402 Billion Wage Loss for competing American Workers, annually! Mass immigration depresses Wages and Displaces Americans.

And consider that Legal and Illegal Immigrant families account for 42% of the growth in Medicaid Costs since 2011. (cis.org) And that is no wonder because recent Migrants are bringing a whole panoply of Disease as Dr. Marc Siegel describes

“... Since illegal immigrants who enter the US are not prescreened in any way, many carry disease... ten to twenty-five percent of the immigrants (in Texas and Arizona) have Scabies, a highly contagious intensely itchy rash.... Already drug-resistant tuberculosis is spreading in Texas... Dengue Fever... is now spreading from the Illegal Immigrants into Texas and Arizona... Measles and Chickenpox are now emerging among the unvaccinated immigrants... now Swine Flu has appeared....”

Marc Siegel MD, Fox News, June, 2014

And we might add that the Medical Evidence indicates that the Enterovirus which has killed seven and sickened thousands of American children is being brought in by these Immigrants.

Given the promise of Free Medical Care and Education and other free (i.e., taxpayer funded) Benefits. It is no wonder that over 36% of all legal (over one Million per year) and illegal immigrants to the U.S. use one or more welfare programs (cis.org).

And the Complaints from some High-Tech Firms that there are not enough H(1b) Visas available for STEM (Science, Technology, Engineering, Math) Workers rings hollow when High-Tech has(is) laid off tens of thousands of American High-Tech Workers (cf. Microsoft & HP layoffs, e.g.).

And the Complaints from some High-Tech Firms that there are not enough H(1b) Visas available for STEM (Science, Technology, Engineering, Math) Workers rings hollow when High-Tech has(is) laid off tens of thousands of American High-Tech Workers (cf. Microsoft & HP layoffs, e.g.).

Thus it is no surprise that the Basic Reality of the Relationship between Population Growth and GDP is that Population Growth typically increases Aggregate GDP but reduces Per Capita GDP.

Couple the Foregoing with ongoing Central Bank Interventions to artificially boost Equity Prices, Support the Mega-Banks (in The private for-profit Fed’s case, including its own shareholders!) and suppress the Prices of Gold and Silver and you have Dangerous Interventions — the Bubbles that Deepcaster and other independent Analysts have been complaining about for years. Indeed, more recently, even Main Stream Investment Managers have recognized the Dangers.

“The investment recommendations made by many financial commentators are now dominated by cross-asset class relative valuation rather than the fundamentals of the investment itself….

“This is an understandable approach as unusual central bank activism has artificially elevated certain asset prices. Yet the dominance of this increasingly popular advice comes with potential risks that need to be well understood and well managed. [Note El-Erian’s reference to “certain” asset classes. — Ed.]

Several asset classes now have highly manipulated prices due to experimental central bank activities, both actual and signaled. The more this happens, the more investors come under pressure to migrate to higher risk investments in search of returns….

“Just a few weeks ago the Federal Reserve announced it is targeting a further $1 trillion in asset purchases in 2013, representing a third of its existing balance sheet. Other central banks -- particularly the Bank of England, the Bank of Japan, and the European Central Bank -- are also expected to expand their balance sheets again in the months ahead….

“There is a limit to how far central banks can divorce prices from fundamentals….at some point, and it is hard to tell when exactly, the private sector will increasingly refuse to engage in situations deemed excessively artificial and overly rigged….

“Have no doubt: Central banks are both referees and players in today's markets. With 2013 starting with so many liquidity-induced deviations, investors would be well advised to take greater care when pursuing opportunities that rely mainly on the ‘central bank put.’” (emphasis added)

“Beware the ‘Central Bank Put’,” Mohamed El-Erian, 01/07/13 Chief Executive and co-Chief Investment Officer of PIMCO

El-Erian is Spot-On correct about the Risks Associated with Investment in “Highly Manipulated Asset Classes, which is why Deepcaster’s portfolio Recommendations aim both to Minimize Risk from and to Profit from, these and others by forecasting Timing and providing Interventional Analyses. (See Notes 2, 3, 4 and 5)

Thus the Interventions make certain Assets Classes even more attractive going forward and others more Treacherous.

Thus, it is no surprise that, the Smart Money is responding accordingly, moving Money into Physical (to avoid the Banking System Bubble) Gold and Silver (and Quality Miners), and certain other commodities.

And Hyperstagflation Resistant Agricultural Land and Essential Food Products Companies are seeing Capital Infusions also. No surprise there either.

The Bottom Line: When considering the Inflation/Deflation Puzzle it is Essential to Evaluate these on a Sector by Sector Basis, and to accurately forecast changes in Inflation/Deflation (as the case may be) Realities and Prospects in each Sector over time. And thus this is The Main Project in which Deepcaster is engaged in order to facilitate Profiting and Protecting Wealth.

Best regards,

Deepcaster December 4, 2014

Note 1: *Shadowstats.com calculates Key Statistics the way they were calculated in the 1980s and 1990s before Official Data Manipulation began in earnest. Consider

Bogus Official Numbers vs. Real Numbers (per Shadowstats.com)

Annual U.S. Consumer Price Inflation reported November 20, 2014
1.66%     /    9.38%

U.S. Unemployment reported November 7, 2014
5.8%     /     23.0%

U.S. GDP Annual Growth/Decline reported November 25, 2014
2.43%        /     -1.73%

U.S. M3 reported November 15, 2014 (Month of October, Y.O.Y.)
No Official Report     /   4.22% (i.e., total M3 Now at $16.085 Trillion!)

Note 2: Our attention to Key Timing Signals and Interventionals and accurate statistics has facilitated Recommendations which have performed well lately. Consider our profits taken in recent months in our Speculative and Fortress Assets Portfolios*

  • 105% Profit on a leveraged ETN on the Volatility Index on October 15, 2014 after just 36 days (i.e., about 1090% Annualized)
  • 70% Profit on Russell 2000 Small Cap Sector Put on October 10, 2014 after just 2 days (i.e., about 12,275% Annualized)
  • 70% Profit on Russell 2000 Small Cap Sector Put on October 1, 2014 after just 8 days (i.e., about 3215% Annualized)
  • 55% Profit on Double Short Euro Call on August 6, 2014 after just 106 days (i.e., about 200% Annualized)
  • 65% Profit on Energy Storage & Management Company on July7 15, 2014 after just 342 days (i.e., about 70% Annualized)
  • 95% Profit on Crude Oil Call on June 11, 2014 after just 73 days (i.e., about 470% Annualized)
  • 75% Profit on Equity Index Call on May 27, 2014 after 21 days (i.e., about 1305% Annualized.)
  • 30% Profit on Equity Index Call on May 13, 2014 after 34 days (i.e., about 320% Annualized)
  • 75% Profit on Crude Oil Call on April 14, 2014 after 13 days (i.e., about 2000% Annualized)
  • 60% Profit on Water Management Company on March 3, 2014 after 454 days (i.e., about 50% Annualized)

*Past Profitable Performance is no assurance of future Profitable Performance.

Note 3: A launching Mega-Trend began to Reveal itself last week.

Investors who ignore it do so at their Peril.

Those who Ride with it have Tremendous Opportunities for Profit and Wealth Protection.

Consider its Impact on our Forecasts in Deepcaster’s recent Alert, “Hot Money Opportunities; Forecasts: Equities; U.S. Dollar/Euro, U.S. T-Notes, T- Bonds, & Interest Rates; Gold & Silver; Crude Oil & Copper,” posted in ‘Alerts Cache’ on Deepcaster.com.

Note 4: “Kuroda is a certified madman running the Bank of Japan.” — David Stockman, 11/13/14, former Head US OMB & U.S. Representative

The Accelerator is Running Full Bore and is creating Major Opportunities and Serious Threats.

Though we would not have put it quite that way, Stockman’s comment correctly reflects an underlying Important Reality.

Indeed, the Accelerator is Accelerating.

To consider The Accelerator and the Opportunities and Threats it is generating review our Forecasts in Deepcaster’s recent Alert, “ Accelerator Opportunities & Threats; BUY RECO!; Forecasts: Equities; U.S. Dollar/Euro, U.S. T-Notes, T- Bonds, & Interest Rates; Gold & Silver; Crude Oil & Copper,” posted in ‘Alerts Cache’ on Deepcaster.com.

And for an opportunity to Profit and Protect Wealth in light of What is coming, see our Buy Recommendation aimed at profiting from an impending Major Move. And for a recent Buy Recommendation, see Note 3.

Note 5: Fundamentals, Technicals and Interventionals, are all signaling a Mega-Move is impending in a Key Sector.

And our Timing Forecast is that this move is likely soon, very soon.

Of course other Key Sectors will be affected by this Mega-Move as well.

To consider the Fundamentals, Technicals and Interventionals, read Deepcaster’s Forecasts for Key Sectors in our recent Alert, “Key Sector Mega-Move Impending; BUY RECO!; Forecasts: Equities; U.S. Dollar/Euro, U.S. T-Notes, T- Bonds, & Interest Rates; Gold & Silver; Crude Oil & Copper,” posted in ‘Alerts Cache’ on Deepcaster.com.

 

 


Rob Kirby - This Is Where The Whole Financial Crisis Originated

Posted by: The Daily Coin

Tagged in: Untagged 

The Daily Coin

Spikes & Opportunities Impending

Posted by: Deepcaster

Tagged in: myblog

Deepcaster

 

(Thus they will tank too … ending in – Ed.) “a very bad way.”

Julian Robertson

Major Geopolitical, Economic and Financial Events will occur beginning this November. And certain of these will generate Mega-Moves in Key Sectors.

And Legendary Investor Julian Robertson has correctly identified one of them — The Great Bubble Event which will end in “a very bad way”.

Indeed, the Jaws of Death and Hindenberg Omen Technical Signals are forecasting these Events and their impact on the Markets.

These events will cause some Key Markets to spike much Higher and others Much Lower. In this Article, Deepcaster identifies Key likely events and forecasts likely consequences for Markets and the Economy.

Consider the Events and Forecasts:

1) the Swiss Gold Vote to withhold Swiss Gold from Sale and accumulate more

Forecast:If the Swiss Referendum passes, which is likely but not certain, it could serve as the Catalyst for Gold to finally make its Great Launch Upward.

2) The November 4, U.S. Elections will help determine the prospects for effective government going forward.

Forecast: Whether or not the Republicans win the U.S. Senate, the prospects for Dysfunctional U.S. Leadership (and thus continued Economic Weakness and Market Volatility) will continue throughout the remainder of the failing Obama Presidency.

3) the Dramatic Effects of the Saudis pushing the Crude Oil Price down to $80/bbl and thus Crude Oil Price Prospects going forward.

Forecast: For a number of reasons, the Saudis will not be able to sustain this Price Suppression. There are a Number of Factors working to elevate and other to Depress Oil Prices going forward, so our Forecast is for higher Volatility going forward. (For a detailed analysis and Specific Price Forecasts see Deepcaster’s November Letter just posted.)

4) U.S. President Obama’s Pledge to Order an (probably Unconstitutional) Amnesty of up to 34 Million (Bids for printing up to 34 Million Green Cards have been solicited by the Obama Administration) Illegal Aliens now living in the U.S. after U.S. Elections, despite evidence that a number of those to be Amnestied carry Active Tuberculosis, Enterovirus, (which is now sickening and killing American Kids) Chagas and other Diseases, and/or are Gang Members or convicted Criminals (cf. carryingcapacity.org).

Forecast: Assuming Obama Orders an Unconstitutional Amnesty of 12 to 34 Million Illegals and gives Many of them Work Permits, it will further depress American Wages, and raise Unemployment of Americans thus diminishing Consumer Demand and intensifying pressure on Budgets via taxpayer-funded Health and Education Facilities. (Net Costs [after subtracting Taxes Immigrants pay] would be over $6 Trillion [Heritage Fdn – Rector et al]) Also, those Legal and Illegal Immigrants not working are likely to go on Welfare and Food Stamps, as over one-third already are (cf. cis.org). The Amnesty would also serve as an incentive for Millions more to come illegally. Important to note is that while a large Workforce may increase aggregate GDP, it almost always depresses per capita GDP especially if many added to the workforce are low skilled.

5) The Brazilian election

Forecast: a Roussef win has greatly strengthened the BRICS Coalition (given Brazil’s prominence in the BRICS and its Resource Base), and will ultimately serve to weaken the U.S. and European Economic Hegemony and the $US. The BRICS Nations have already established a “Development” Bank to compete with the Western Nations’ IMF and a Chinese or Chinese-BRICS World Reserve Currency is coming to replace the $US.

6) the reinstitution of publically visible QE by The Fed (which is likely already continuing via Covert QE via Belgium)

Forecast: We expect publically visible QE to be revived in the next few months and that would signal that Hyper Monetary Inflation has launched and is here to stay and would thus launch Hyper Price Inflation. The Equities Market Takedown of a couple weeks ago was a Harbinger of these coming developments. Deepcaster’s Forecasts thus facilitated three significant Profit Takings in early October (Note 2).

7) the further Economic weakening of the Eurozone, including the likely collapse of one or more Eurozone Peripheral countries’ Banks, and/or French bank/s, and/or even Economic collapse of certain of the aforementioned countries. Recent Eurozone Bank Stress Tests were a (Bad) Joke.

Forecast: A Major Bank or Country Collapse would Signal European Central Bank QE is not Working and the Eurozone is not recovering. This would Crash Eurozone and other Markets. A likely but not certain Prospect.

8) Russia (and with close cooperation of China) finally seriously retaliates against Ukraine and the rest of the West, by increasing Physical Gold purchases, selling U.S. Treasuries, and taking further $US weakening steps. This would further facilitate the Chinese Yuan’s progress toward becoming the World’s Reserve Currency.

Forecast: U.S. and Eurozone Sanctions will have Backfired, further hurting their Economies, and therefore Markets, because Russia has Resources (Gas, Gold and Oil, e.g.) andthe cooperation of China.

9) US Debt balloons toward $18 Trillion and Downstream Unfunded Liabilities toward $125 Trillion

Forecast: As the $18 Trillion Mark is passed this will put another Nail in the Coffin of the U.S. Dollar as World Reserve Currency.

10) World Population continues to increase by 80 million per year moving through 8 and then 9 Billion.

We reiterate that while growing populations may increase aggregate GDP, they almost always reduce per capita GDP, thus impoverishing the citizenry. Key resource base components (e.g., topsoil and potable water) are limited and their expansion is severely constrained.

Forecast: Population Growth increases demand for resources (e.g., Energy, Food and Other Commodities) on a limited Resource Base and thus increases Resource Nationalism. Resource Nationalism (such as China’s exhibiting increasing Force in the South China Sea including claiming Oil and Gas Drilling Rights which Vietnam and Japan claim as theirs also) and Migrant Pressure on Borders of the U.S., Eurozone and the Developed World continue to increase, with eventual Disastrous results for Economic and Social Stability.

11) The Currency Wars continue with the Major Central Banks conducting Serial Devaluation of the Purchasing Power of their Currencies. This serves, of course, to enrich their Banker and Mega-Business Owners/Clients and impoverish their Middle Classes.

Forecast: This Process is Creating a Great Credit Bubble based on Borrowed Liquidity not Earned Liquidity – a very Dangerous Situation as former Deutsche Bank CEO, Kurt Richebacher (RIP), pointed out. Indeed, it is a set-up for a Weimar Republic Scenario.

Financial Guru, Bill Bonner, explains How and Why and Cui Bono (i.e., Who Benefits)

“…On Thursday, the Dow rose 221 points.

“This is good news for Janet Yellen. She must think she has made a clean getaway. She has fled the scene of the biggest financial heist in history with no cops in sight. …

“This grand larceny involved $3.6 trillion. Counterfeit – every dollar of it. Not a penny of it was ever honestly earned or earnestly saved... or dug out of the dirt and turned into coins.

“…But hardly a single soul understood what was going on….

“Next question: Who has the money? We don't know that either. But the Fed fabricated $3.6 trillion over the last five years... and every penny ended up in someone's hands. Follow the money. You will find out what happened….

“On our desk are two great books. One is David Stockman's The Great Deformation. …

“Stockman was present at the creation, so to speak. … when the Republican Party ran off the rails and veered sharply toward deficits and activism.

“Stockman fought hard to stop it, battling Dick Cheney and the neocons, and he lost. …

“Politics won out over sound fiscal principles. "Deficits don't matter," said Cheney. Which means debt doesn't matter. …

“But thenceforth, neither Republican nor Democratic administrations stood in the way of the great credit bubble.

“With an almost infinite amount of credit to work with, Wall Street quickly rose to the challenge. It peddled debt to everyone – governments, corporations and households.

“Americans took the bait….”

“The Biggest Financial Heist in History,” Bill Bonner, 10/31/2014

Of course, the foregoing are factored into Deepcaster’s weekly forecasts.

In sum, the ongoing Currency Wars are generating a “Race to the Bottom,” overall Slowing Major Economies, generally, and a still increasingly economically depressed Middle Class and high Unemployment in the U.S. and other developed Countries (Note 1). The foregoing will not support much Stronger Economic Growth and much Higher Equities Markets going forward.

These facts have already and will increasingly provide Opportunities for Wealth Protection and Profit going forward for those who are able to surmount Main Stream media spin and News Blackouts. Those who ignore them do so at their Financial Peril.

Best regards,

Deepcaster
October 31, 2014

Note 1: *Shadowstats.com calculates Key Statistics the way they were calculated in the 1980s and 1990s before Official Data Manipulation began in earnest. Consider

Bogus Official Numbers vs. Real Numbers (per Shadowstats.com)

Annual U.S. Consumer Price Inflation reported October 22, 2014
1.70%     /    9.38%

U.S. Unemployment reported October 3, 2014
5.9%     /     23.1%

U.S. GDP Annual Growth/Decline reported September 26, 2014
2.59%        /     -1.66%

U.S. M3 reported October 21, 2014 (Month of September, Y.O.Y.)
No Official Report     /   4.25% (i.e., total M3 Now at $16.018 Trillion!)

Note 2: Our attention to Key Timing Signals and Interventionals and accurate statistics has facilitated Recommendations which have performed well lately. Consider our profits taken in recent months in our Speculative and Fortress Assets Portfolios*

  • 105% Profit on a leveraged ETN on the Volatility Index on October 15, 2014 after just 36 days (i.e., about 1090% Annualized)
  • 70% Profit on Russell 2000 Small Cap Sector Put on October 10, 2014 after just 2 days (i.e., about 12,275% Annualized)
  • 70% Profit on Russell 2000 Small Cap Sector Put on October 1, 2014 after just 8 days (i.e., about 3215% Annualized)
  • 55% Profit on Double Short Euro Call on August 6, 2014 after just 106 days (i.e., about 200% Annualized)
  • 65% Profit on Energy Storage & Management Company on July7 15, 2014 after just 342 days (i.e., about 70% Annualized)
  • 95% Profit on Crude Oil Call on June 11, 2014 after just 73 days (i.e., about 470% Annualized)
  • 75% Profit on Equity Index Call on May 27, 2014 after 21 days (i.e., about 1305% Annualized.)
  • 30% Profit on Equity Index Call on May 13, 2014 after 34 days (i.e., about 320% Annualized)
  • 75% Profit on Crude Oil Call on April 14, 2014 after 13 days (i.e., about 2000% Annualized)
  • 60% Profit on Water Management Company on March 3, 2014 after 454 days (i.e., about 50% Annualized)

*Past Profitable Performance is no assurance of future Profitable Performance.


Profitable Investing in Essential Resources NOW

Posted by: Deepcaster

Tagged in: myblog

Deepcaster

 

When considering investing in Essential Resources it is important to determine not only which of these have relatively inelastic Demand but also those which have Relatively inelastic Supply.

Now is a time of Great Opportunity for Investing in certain (but not all!) Key Resources, because certain Key Resources are NOW available at Bargain Basement Prices.

The Key to Picking which ones is to focus on the Big Picture for a particular Resource, an Important Deepcaster Focus.

As well, it is important to Tune Out the Mainstream Media Hype and Spin (or Gloom and Doom, as the Case may be) and look at the Real Fundamentals.

So consider here an overview of the prospects for Four Essential Resources: Potable Water, Gold, Silver and Crude Oil.

There is a Delusion, somewhat widely accepted, that if an Essential Resource is in Short Supply, the Supply Problem can be solved if one applies enough Appropriate Technology and Capital to it.

Realistically, though, for certain Essential Resources, supply shortages, (i.e., Demand “Longages” ) can be Managed, to a point. Yes. Solved No.

This Reality provides both an Opportunity and a Threat — a Profit Opportunity for those who are aware of it, and a Threat for those who are not.

Several such Great Essential Resources Opportunity/Threats face us today. Potable Water, for example provides a Great Profit Opportunity. (Indeed, Deepcaster has already recommended taking Profit on One of our recent Water Sector Recommendations and have a current Recommendation aimed at profiting from another one in the Water Sector also.

Potable Water can be Managed to a Point, but there is no feasible (i.e., Energy and Capital Efficient) technology which can create the Vast Quantities of Potable Water Needed for Agriculture and Huge Urban Areas.

Resource Realists are already learning this Hard Lesson from the Mega-Drought now Threatening California and the rest of the West and Southwest from Texas to Oregon.

Consider excerpts from the following report on Ground water from California; California provides over of 50% by value of the USA’s Agricultural Product plus considerable Agricultural export Income.

“The ongoing disaster that is the drought in the West is leaving wells dry across California - which account for up to 60% of water usage. As WSJ reports, as groundwater levels plunge (100 feet or more lower than norm), wells are being driven further and further into the earth (500 feet in some cases) forcing the state legislature is considering regulating underground water for the first time. ‘We can't continue to pump groundwater at the rates we are and expect it to continue in the future,’ warns one engineer, adding ‘What's scary is we're not fixing anything... It's a race to the bottom.’

“‘Everybody was pumping to their heart's content, until they realized the basin isn't that big.’

“With groundwater levels falling across the Golden State—causing dried-up wells, sinking roadbeds and crumbling infrastructure—the state legislature is considering regulating underground water for the first time.

“Californians have long battled over rights to rivers, lakes and other surface-water supplies, but the drought is finally shifting the focus to groundwater, which accounts for about 40% of water used in normal years—and up to 60% in drought years, as other sources dry up….

“…groundwater tables in some parts of California have dropped 100 feet or more below historic averages. That has resulted in an estimated $1.3 billion in damage to infrastructure, such as cracked highways due to subsidence…

“One California County Supervisor Frank Mecham said the near-doubling of the county's population to 275,000 since 1980 has put pressure on groundwater….”

“Government To Regulate Groundwater For 1st Time As California Drought Becomes ‘Race To The Bottom’,” Tyler Durden, zerohedge.com, 08/29/2014

Of course, the aforementioned Supervisor put his finger on the Primary Cause of the dramatically increased demand for Potable Water from Urban Areas – Population Growth (100% of which for the past decade has been caused by Mass legal and illegal immigration). The Potable Water supply Realities in the West and Southwest demonstrate that there are Carrying Capacity Limits (Note 3 Definition).

So where are the Investment Profit and Wealth Protection Opportunities?

Are Desalination Plants the answer? No, The Capital Expenditures are massive and Energy Requirements Substantial and amounts of Potable Water Produced are quite Small relative to Agricultural and Urban Demand.

And as to Techno-fixes, who after all really wants to drink “Greywater”?

Or consume Food irrigated with “Greywater”?

There are three Key Points here:

1) Groundwater and other Essential Potable Water Resources are de facto quite limited.

2) Essential Water and virtually irreplaceable Topsoil Resources can not support Unlimited Population Growth. See www.carryingcapacity.org.

3) Acknowledging the Reality of the Foregoing Resource Limits allows one to Profit from the Opportunity and avoid the Threats to Assets reliant on Essential Resources. Indeed, Deepcaster (an others with a “Big Picture” Perspective saw this Investing Opportunity months ago, and have already recommended water sector stocks (see Note 1).

So now consider the Fundamentals for three other Essential Resources. Gold and Silver Prices have been in a downtrend for many months and Crude Oil for many weeks.

Gold in Real Money, Silver is Real Money and Essential in High Tech and Medical Applications and Crude Oil is The Essential Portable Energy source for years to come.

Considering “Big Picture” Fundamentals, the Upside Price Potential for all three is Quite Bright. Consider a few Key Big Picture Fundamentals for these three.

Many weeks ago we first Forecast the $US would rise vis à vis the Euro, short-term, and it has and still is, because of the $US and U.S. Economy’s relative perceived (but not Real) strength.

The Eurozone is about to embark on a round of easing (i.e., Currency Devaluation just as Japan has been doing) vis à vis the $US ostensibly to combat its lousy Economy and 11.5% Official Unemployment Rate. And Japan is engaged in QE as well.

Indeed, the Major Economic Powers have been and continue to be in a War of Competitive Fiat Currency Devaluation (i.e., Purchasing Power Devaluation).

And though the USA is ostensibly on track to taper its Bond buying to zero, there is considerable evidence that it continues to purchase U.S. Treasuries (to boost the $US) using Belgium as a “Front.” (See Deepcaster’s earlier Article).

Moreover, the Eurozone Economy is still depressed, and the Chinese economy is slumping somewhat.

Thus, short-term, we can expect money to continue to flow into the $US and U.S. Treasuries, with the U.S. 10Yr. Yield Bouncing in the 2.2% to 2.6% range.

But underneath the Mainstream Media Hype, the U.S. Economy is not recovering either with Real Unemployment at about 23% and Real U.S. GDP a Negative Number per Shadowstats.com. (Note 2)

While the Official Headline Consensus puts U.S. GDP at 4.6%, as Shadowstats’ John Williams says, “The GDP also has been subject to special-purpose (usually election-related) political manipulation…over the last five decades… [resulting in… Ed] … the heavy overstatement of second-quarter GDP Growth … Happy Hype, Fluff and Guesstimates Boosted the GDP Growth Estimate… the Broad Economy … is still turning down anew.” Shadowstats #662, September 26, 2014.

Considering the foregoing, imagine the Economic Catastrophe if The Fed were to try to sell any significant amount of its $4 Trillion-plus Hoard of U.S. Treasuries back into the Market.

So, Key “Big Picture” Fundamentals for Investors are

1) the Real Continuing down turn in the U.S. Economy and

2) the ongoing Competitive Devaluation (i.e., Fiat Currency) War among Major Central Banks—a War which in principle can not continue indefinitely

Thus we forecast: The Fed will have to resume publically visible QE some time in the next 12 months, and Deepcaster aims to more precisely forecast the timing as we move closer to that event.

This will Crash the $US and U.S. Treasuries and usher in Hyperinflation, including Hyperinflation of the Prices of Gold and Silver and Crude.

We are not quite ready to make the Call as to the Specific Month, but we will make it in due course.

Indeed, one Major Geopolitical Event actually scheduled for a very few weeks from now could well touch off a massive Rally in Gold and Silver, the Essential Monetary Metals, i.e., non-Fiat Currencies.

And The Fed’s re-institution of QE which will happen (the only question is timing) will touch off a Massive Rally in these two Monetary Metals and in Crude.

As a result of all the foregoing and other key factors, Deepcaster considers that our following forecasts made a week ago are “Baked into the cake.”

In the next 12 months we forecast (and in our October Letter we identify):

— 2 Key Sectors currently in Multi-Month Downtrends will Reverse and Skyrocket.

— 3 Key Sectors in Multi-Month Uptrends will Reverse and Crash.

— A Dramatic and Sudden Event in one Essential Sector will shake Markets and Economies to the core.

— And, we forecast in October that one Major Sector will Crash

Seeing the “Big” Picture and the Real Fundamentals are essential to profiting and protecting Wealth, via Essential Resources, going forward.

Best regards,

Deepcaster
October 10, 2014

Note 1: Our attention to Key Timing Signals and Interventionals and accurate statistics has facilitated Recommendations which have performed well lately. Consider our profits taken in recent months in our Speculative and Fortress Assets Portfolios*

  • 70% Profit on Russell 2000 Small Cap Sector Put on October 1, 2014 after just 8 days (i.e., about 3215% Annualized)
  • 55% Profit on Double Short Euro Call on August 6, 2014 after just 106 days (i.e., about 200% Annualized)
  • 65% Profit on Energy Storage & Management Company on July7 15, 2014 after just 342 days (i.e., about 70% Annualized)
  • 95% Profit on Crude Oil Call on June 11, 2014 after just 73 days (i.e., about 470% Annualized)
  • 75% Profit on Equity Index Call on May 27, 2014 after 21 days (i.e., about 1305% Annualized.)
  • 30% Profit on Equity Index Call on May 13, 2014 after 34 days (i.e., about 320% Annualized)
  • 75% Profit on Crude Oil Call on April 14, 2014 after 13 days (i.e., about 2000% Annualized)
  • 60% Profit on Water Management Company on March 3, 2014 after 454 days (i.e., about 50% Annualized)

*Past Profitable Performance is no assurance of future Profitable Performance.

Note 2: *Shadowstats.com calculates Key Statistics the way they were calculated in the 1980s and 1990s before Official Data Manipulation began in earnest. Consider

Bogus Official Numbers vs. Real Numbers (per Shadowstats.com)

Annual U.S. Consumer Price Inflation reported September 17, 2014
1.70%     /    9.42%

U.S. Unemployment reported October 3, 2014
5.9%     /     23.1%

U.S. GDP Annual Growth/Decline reported September 26, 2014
2.59%        /     -1.66%

U.S. M3 reported October 7, 2014 (Month of September, Y.O.Y.)
No Official Report     /   4.39% (i.e., total M3 Now at $16.045 Trillion!)

Note 3: “Carrying capacity” refers to the number of individuals who can be supported in a given area within natural resource limits, and without degrading the natural social, cultural and economic environment for present and future generations.


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