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Taper Tantrum Opportunities

Posted by: Deepcaster

Tagged in: myblog

Deepcaster

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“The first panacea for a mismanaged nation is inflation of the currency: the second is war. Both bring temporary prosperity; both bring a permanent ruin. But both are the refuge of political and economic opportunists.”

– Ernest Hemingway

A Tapering Trend any time soon is most unlikely, but Market “Tantrums” emanating from Speculation about Tapers Advent provide Significant Opportunities for the Prepared.

Even if The Fed does begin a bit of Tapering in December, or March, or whenever, (unlikely) it is not likely to last (unless other Central Banks simultaneously increase liquidity to continue to prop up the fragile International Economy). Considering Why reveals Opportunities.

—Recall that every time in the last few months Tapering was treated in the Main Stream Media as if it were a Probability, Major Emerging Markets Equities swooned. The Developed World is The Major Market for the Emerging Market Economies. If Developed World Economies slow or contract so do those of the Emerging Economies.

Thus if Taper is implemented and therefore Stimulus is reduced, Economic Activity is reduced, for the following reasons:

—Since the Primary Effect of Fed Bond Buying is to Maintain low interest rates (Fed Demand for Treasuries and MBS keeps their values artificially high and thus their interest rates artificially low) Tapering would mean rising interest rates (which will happen anyway eventually) and Rising Interest Rates would devastate the Stock Markets World Wide, and …

—Corporate Earnings (which QE has kept artificially high by lowering borrowing costs) would be devastated because rising rates would increase borrowing costs on corporate debt.

—Any Housing Market recovery would be aborted by rising Mortgage rates.

—With Margin Debt at record levels, over-leveraged players would go into The Tank.

Opportunities flow from the aforementioned.

—Expect Markets to rally as “no Tapering this Month” Decisions are announced.

—In the unlikely event a Tapering is announced and Markets consequently Dip, buy the Dips, a halt to Tapering (and at some point/s even an increase in QE!) is likely to be announced soon thereafter. (This suggestion applies for the very short term only, since a Major Market Crash is likely to launch some time in 2014).

—And do not bet that a Continuation of QE (i.e., no Tapering) will help the Real Economy (Japan’s QE has lasted for decades and that QE has not revived the Japanese Economy). QE merely artificially boasts Asset Prices, which is why Carl Icahn is correct when he says corporate earnings are a “mirage.”

—Continuing QE is aimed mainly at propping up the Mega-Banks, but also is destroying the US$ as the World’s Reserve Currency.

A “No Tapering This Month” Decision some week soon may well be the Catalyst which launches Gold and Silver up, finally, into their Great Rally. Be prepared.

Best regards,

Deepcaster December 13, 2013

 

“The first panacea for a mismanaged nation is inflation of the currency: the second is war. Both bring temporary prosperity; both bring a permanent ruin. But both are the refuge of political and economic opportunists.”

– Ernest Hemingway

A Tapering Trend any time soon is most unlikely, but Market “Tantrums” emanating from Speculation about Tapers Advent provide Significant Opportunities for the Prepared.

Even if The Fed does begin a bit of Tapering in December, or March, or whenever, (unlikely) it is not likely to last (unless other Central Banks simultaneously increase liquidity to continue to prop up the fragile International Economy). Considering Why reveals Opportunities.

—Recall that every time in the last few months Tapering was treated in the Main Stream Media as if it were a Probability, Major Emerging Markets Equities swooned. The Developed World is The Major Market for the Emerging Market Economies. If Developed World Economies slow or contract so do those of the Emerging Economies.

Thus if Taper is implemented and therefore Stimulus is reduced, Economic Activity is reduced, for the following reasons:

—Since the Primary Effect of Fed Bond Buying is to Maintain low interest rates (Fed Demand for Treasuries and MBS keeps their values artificially high and thus their interest rates artificially low) Tapering would mean rising interest rates (which will happen anyway eventually) and Rising Interest Rates would devastate the Stock Markets World Wide, and …

—Corporate Earnings (which QE has kept artificially high by lowering borrowing costs) would be devastated because rising rates would increase borrowing costs on corporate debt.

—Any Housing Market recovery would be aborted by rising Mortgage rates.

—With Margin Debt at record levels, over-leveraged players would go into The Tank.

Opportunities flow from the aforementioned.

—Expect Markets to rally as “no Tapering this Month” Decisions are announced.

—In the unlikely event a Tapering is announced and Markets consequently Dip, buy the Dips, a halt to Tapering (and at some point/s even an increase in QE!) is likely to be announced soon thereafter. (This suggestion applies for the very short term only, since a Major Market Crash is likely to launch some time in 2014).

—And do not bet that a Continuation of QE (i.e., no Tapering) will help the Real Economy (Japan’s QE has lasted for decades and that QE has not revived the Japanese Economy). QE merely artificially boasts Asset Prices, which is why Carl Icahn is correct when he says corporate earnings are a “mirage.”

—Continuing QE is aimed mainly at propping up the Mega-Banks, but also is destroying the US$ as the World’s Reserve Currency.

A “No Tapering This Month” Decision some week soon may well be the Catalyst which launches Gold and Silver up, finally, into their Great Rally. Be prepared.

Best regards,

Deepcaster December 13, 2013


MiLords Are Not United

Posted by: FusionEnterprise

Tagged in: Untagged 

FusionEnterprise

The ancient Greeks figured it out and took steps to keep their democracy from being swamped by an Oligarchy of elites.  There is you see, an identified “Iron Law of Oligarchy,” which states:  “Who says organization says oligarchy.” A corollary to this statement is that a large complex democracy cannot exist.  It must transform into an Oligarchy.  This is highly relevant to our present condition where we are at the mercy of .1% or one in a thousand.  I choose to call this powerful minority MiLords, since a mil is one thousandth of a unit. 

Setting aside the question of our ever having been a democracy, we can agree that the terms of engagement are at a crisis point with MiLords controlling an ever increasing share of wealth and using that wealth to wield power.   Now before you shake your head and click on to another story, I want to say one thing: this is not a conspiracy in the purest sense of the term.  I am not suggesting that there is a unified movement of the very rich designed to control every aspect of our lives.  They are only united in one singular goal and that is what Winters calls the “Income Defense Industry.”

You see MiLords are not united on much else.  Their social agendas do not match.  Their political agendas are practical not ideological so there is no world standard.  It is a “Warring Oligarchy” that only comes together to defend the borders of wealth.  So on many issues, MiLords let us duke it out.  In fact they are quite happy that we have something to fight about so that we do not pay too much attention to their ultimate agenda.  They love it when conservatives lob bombs at liberals calling them socialists and liberals chastise conservatives for their inhumanity.  In the end they do not have to finance bread and circuses.  They can sit back and enjoy the circus put on by zealots from all quarters.

The problem would be much easier to address if MiLords were united.  We could clearly identify them as the oppressors and launch a revolution.  But their disunity protects them and makes it extremely difficult to find a place to stand to move a lever let alone identify a fulcrum to lean against.  To this dilemma I suggest two strategies.

The first is to simply refuse to play their game which is centered around a contrivance called money.  Money that is rooted in debt, compounded by a fractional reserve system that must escalate to survive.  A Ponzi scheme that in its present iteration has taken 100 years to blow up.  We can choose Visualizing Intrinsic Value Alignment instead and work to create a Fusion Economy.  We can support productivity over exploitation, well being over consumerism, etc.  This is a grass roots approach and must avoid being corralled by a “movement” lest it succumb to the Iron Law of Oligarchy.

 The second strategy is to take a lesson from MiLords and unite behind our goal to disempower MiLords.  To do this means setting aside our religious, economic, political and social differences to be fought out on a different battle field.   We cannot allow MiLords to taunt us into disbanding.   If MiLords use myths to keep us bound into factions, then we must demystify our world.  It is a myth that we live in a democracy for example and to identify and understand the Oligarchy is a step toward dispelling the myth.

 I suggest that the starting point is to name the Oligarchy.  I have settled upon MiLords but that will not likely be the final accepted designation.  It is vital that there be an agreed upon term so that we can get on with the task of defining this “Warring Oligarchy.”  The name must embody the fact that this is a very narrowly construed Oligarchy with Income Defense as its goal.  It is more insidious than a conspiracy.  And it has over reached.  Income Defense has been replaced by Wealth Abrogation.  Greed is rotting the log upon which MiLords stand.  No longer content with 10 to 1 disparities in income they are striving for 400 to 1.

 And it will be their downfall.

 

 

 

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Revolution: Will It Happen In My Lifetime?

Posted by: FusionEnterprise

Tagged in: Untagged 

FusionEnterprise

Revolution: Will It Happen In My Lifetime?

Noun
1. An overthrow or repudiation and the thorough replacement of an established government or political system by the people governed.
2. Sociology  a radical and pervasive change in society and the social structure, especially one made suddenly and often accompanied by violence.

The question I would like to address here is this: can we the people foment a non-violent revolution that will bring about much needed radical and pervasive change in our social, economic and political structure?

In my first entry, I have outlined seven areas of focus for this blog and the list does not include revolution.  Intrinsic to the list, however, is the notion that investigation into and critical thinking about these seven disciplines, by a small minority of folks, will set the stage for profound change in our society.  Some posit that even as few as 5% of the population can influence direction and tip the balance toward profound change.  My hope is that we can think our way toward action oriented strategies and avoid the chaos, destruction and bloodshed that could occur as the culmination of our present folly.

My premise is this: we are living in an oligarchy made up of large corporations (food production chain, pharma, chemical, energy, etc.), a web of financial entities (Goldman Sachs and the like), mega-banks (JP Morgan, etc.) and last but not least, Central Banks (our own dear Federal Reserve and its cousins all over the world).  In this construction of the way things are, it really doesn’t matter much whether a Democrat or Republican is in power.  It does matter a lot that we can be distracted by the discord between them, but ultimately they are there to do the will of the Oligarchy. 

For instance, Obama is finally starting to make some noise about the obscene disparities in wealth distribution, but his own Attorney General, chief law enforcement officer of the land, has declared in testimony before congress that he will not prosecute known crimes by “Banksters” (not his term) since it would hurt the world economy.  Republicans are more forthright in their support of the wealthy, wrapping themselves in the flag of free enterprise, but for all practical purposes there is very little difference in what would have happened under McCain/Romney or Obama.  The maverick McCain was already “tamed” during the time leading up to the election of 2008 and Romney… well let’s just say that Romney was drinking (swimming in?)the cool aid and seemingly had no idea he was running to be the stooge, not President.

So, if your response to what is going on is to rant against Republicans for propagating wealth distribution upwards (with trickle down to create more minimum wage jobs), or against Democrats for propagating wealth downwards (you know, Socialism, ugh), then you are falling into a trap (for sure I am guilty of doing this at times) designed by the Oligarchy to keep us docile.  Ferociously docile, but docile for all intents and purposes.  I implore you to take the time to get the facts and apply critical thinking.  Go back in history and look at the roots of money and banking. 

If you are looking for a short cut, just go back 100 years to the formation of the Federal Reserve and come forward through the myriad attempts to curb the excessive power granted this a private bank, and the Oligarchy’s responses often cloaked in “reform” legislation.  Take a stop along the way to study the confiscation of Gold (by Democrat FDR) at one price and setting the price six months later at a level 75% higher, and the Securities Laws of the early 30’s, and Bretton Woods (1944) elevating the dollar to reserve currency status, and Nixon taking us off Gold and establishing Petrodollars, and the final bringing down of the walls separating banking, finance and insurance (signed into law by President Clinton).  If you’re really keen, take a look at the efforts to control the world order with patent law using the World Trade Organization as the war horse.

If you accept the premise that we are no longer a free society with a democratic form of government, then we can turn to the question of revolution and address the issue of violence.  My second premise is that an organized violent revolution will not occur and even if it did, would be crushed with impunity under the freedom flag of our sacred constitution.  It will not occur because the gun rights folks have been captured by the Oligarchy and will go down shooting in defense of property rights, defending their one acre against “socialists,” while the corporations with 10,000 acres smile benevolently from their bunkers.  Even if it did occur, the razor wire enclosures to squelch the revolution have already been built and ammunition has already been bought up.  And military coups, not part of our lexicon, would be pre-empted by the Oligarchy. 

This is not to say that there will not be violence.  It is simply to say that I do not see much hope in relying upon a violent uprising to replace the present order with anything revolutionary.  If it is attempted, it will be squelched.  If it were to “succeed” against all odds, the subsequent societal structures would be shaped by the very powers that we are subject to now.   I posit that centralized mega movements are subject to manipulation. I suggest therefore that we look for grass roots actions that can shape the future organically and be spread biologically from cell to cell, without a manifesto and without violence.  Impossible you say?  Perhaps you are right.  But can we try?

Fusion Enterprise

I put forward a term to describe an old way of doing business.  An old way based on credit instead of debt, innovation in the commons instead of patent controls, well being instead of consumerism, intrinsic value instead of paper derivatives, respect for our world instead of exploitation of commodities and acceptance of the other instead of religious fundamentalism.  I borrow this term from David Martin (invertedalchemy.blogspot.com) and encourage you to read his blog.  It is out of this mix that I have coined the phrase Visualizing Intrinsic Value Alignment (VIVA).

 

My attempt to visualize a world made up of Fusion Enterprises will flow through a continued discussion of the seven topics outlined more than a year ago.  I welcome your thoughts.  I only ask you to set aside the rancor of debates pitting Liberal Socialist against Conservative Reactionaries.  If that is where you want to go with this, you are totally missing the point.  Take it elsewhere, I beg you.  You can argue that a violent uprising is the only way to succeed (and I will disagree) but please don’t argue that we simply need to get the House under Democratic control or that all we need to do is impeach Obama.  You will be succumbing to the Oligarchy’s desire to divide and subjugate.  I suggest that if we engage sincerely we will find that we have similar ideas about what our intrinsic values are.  And we can get on with the business of shaping our future and rise above the machinations of President Snow (yes we can learn something from the Hunger Games).

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“Tulipmania was the first major financial bubble. Investors began to madly purchase tulips, pushing their prices up to unprecedented highs; the average price of a single flower bulb exceeded ten times the annual income of a skilled craftsman. Tulips sold for over 4000 florins, the currency of the Netherlands at the time. As prices drastically collapsed over the course of a week, many tulip holders instantly went bankrupt.”

investopedia.com

It is no secret that an investment in Bitcoins – the Digital Non-National Currency – has generated Phenomenal Profits recently. Profits, that is, for those who bought early and chose to sell before the recent Chinese “Bitcoin Veto” Announcement.

But as an unbacked Fiat Currency, (i.e., unbacked by any Tangible Asset such as Gold and thus without Intrinsic Value) Bitcoin is more than a Bit Vulnerable to Tulipmania, that is, to Speculative Booms and Crashes and Ultimate Destruction – the Fate of all such Fiat Currencies in World History. But there is a way to Profit and Protect from the ongoing Bitcoin Tulipmania, without the Great Risk of taking Speculative Long or Short position in Bitcoins themselves. Read on.

For sure, Bitcoins have many advantages. They are not subject to capital controls or price controls of Major Nations. And they facilitate Transactional Anonymity and Ease. These characteristics are likely why Bitcoins trade in Argentina for more than 30% more than elsewhere – an apparent attempt to avoid Argentinian Rampant Inflation and Capital controls. And similarly, it is why they are Popular in China. It is not a Bit surprising, therefore, they have not been depreciating, so far, but rather in an appreciating trend.

Thus it is claimed with some justification that Bitcoin is an Alternative to Fiat Currencies, but so are Gold and Silver.

But there are Serious Issues and Risks with Bitcoin.

Its rapid run-up in Price (vis à vis other Fiat Currencies) suggests Speculators are driving the Market – a Market Now characterized by Mania – consider the recent Headline “Bitcoin Boom Spreads to iPhones with Mobile Payment Apps.”

This Mania indicates there is a Great Price Vulnerability because, as a Market driven by Speculators, it indicates The Bitcoin Market is a Bitcoin Version of Tulipmania.

And since there is no Tangible Asset (not even Tulips!) or Intrinsic Value backing Bitcoin, it is just as subject to Crashing. Bitcoin owners learned that the hard way this week when, after China banned Financial Institutions Bitcoin Transactions, Bitcoin fell from $1240 to $870, on MT.GOX, a Major Bitcoin Exchange. As we write, it has recovered to over $1000, but not back over $1200.

Another Issue is that no Major Nation, so far as we are yet aware, has yet imposed a Taxation Regime upon it. In the U.S., one Question would be: are Gains (Losses) in the currency subject to Treatment as Capital Gains or Ordinary Income?

Official Silence (thus far) on Taxation issues, plus the Anonymity and Ease of Transferability potentially provides an Opening for Criminals who choose to engage in Money Laundering or Tax Avoidance. Thus, there is every reason to expect that the Authorities, everywhere, will not allow this Criminal Opportunity to remain open much longer.

But perhaps the Greatest Vulnerability is the Fact that as an Alternative Currency not created by, or thus far, subject to the control of any Central Bank, Bitcoins are a de facto competition to Central Banks. Does anyone really believe Central Banks will allow such competition with their Fiat Currencies and Treasury Securities as Stores and Measures of Value to continue for long?

Consider for example, the past and ongoing Suppression of the Prices of Gold and Silver by the Mega Bank Cartel (Note 1). Clearly the Mega Bankers do not take kindly to Competition to their Fiat Currencies and Treasury Securities provided by the Precious Monetary Metals, Gold and Silver, and are willing to Act to Stop it.

So what next? Permit us to engage in a Bit of Speculation.

Assume The Private, for-profit Fed and other Central Banks have decided they do not like the Bitcoin Competition, one little Bit.

And Suppose they were/are among the Speculators now purchasing Bitcoin and thus facilitating its rise to new heights vis à vis other Fiat Currencies.

And then Suppose the Central Banks decide to Sell in concert, in Massive Quantities much like, well, much like the Mega-Banks and their Agents Sell (and have for years been selling) massively into the Gold and Silver Market to depress Prices, as has been well documented by The Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee (gata.org), Deepcaster, and many other commentators.

Given the lightning fast Transaction Speed in our Digital Age is there any reason to think that a Massive Crash would take more than a few seconds (at most) to implement…to implement a Devastating Bitcoin Tulipmania Crash, as it were, wiping out all the Speculators. It would be difficult if not impossible for Bitcoin to recover from such a Crash, since it is not backed, even by Tulip Bulbs.

In such event (likely in our opinion), who/and what would, and could, benefit?

As usual these days, China, the World’s Great Creditor, and Greatest Producer and Importer of Gold, shows the way.

As noted, China very recently banned Financial Institutions from Bitcoin Transactions.

And, further consider that, since the Private, for-Profit Fed is facilitating the demise of the $US as the World’s Reserve Currency with its “insane” (former OMB Director David Stockman) $US Destructive Policy, a Gold-backed Chinese Yuan is set to displace it some year, or month, soon.

So, while a Bitcoin Tulipmania Crash would marginally benefit other Fiat Currencies left standing it would massively benefit a Gold-backed Yuan, and Gold Bullion itself.

So we conclude with a Bit of Wisdom. The New Coins of the Realm which are likely to show a Great Profit after a Bitcoin Tulipmania Crash, will likely be Gold (and Silver) and a Gold-backed Yuan.

But this Hypothesis of a Central-Bank orchestrated Bitcoin Crash is all Just a Bit of … Speculation … which you likely heard here first.

Best regards,

Deepcaster December 6, 2013

Note 1: We encourage those who doubt the scope and power of Overt and Covert Interventions by a Fed-led Cartel of Key Central Bankers and Favored Financial Institutions to read Deepcaster’s December, 2009, Special Alert containing a summary overview of Intervention entitled “Forecasts and December, 2009 Special Alert: Profiting From The Cartel’s Dark Interventions - III” and Deepcaster’s July, 2010 Letter entitled "Profit from a Weakening Cartel; Buy Reco; Forecasts: Gold, Silver, Equities, Crude Oil, U.S. Dollar & U.S. T-Notes & T-Bonds" in the ‘Alerts Cache’ and ‘Latest Letter’ Cache at www.deepcaster.com. Also consider the substantial evidence collected by the Gold AntiTrust Action Committee at www.gata.org, including testimony before the CFTC, for information on precious metals price manipulation. Virtually all of the evidence for Intervention has been gleaned from publicly available records. Deepcaster’s profitable recommendations displayed at www.deepcaster.com have been facilitated by attention to these “Interventionals.” Attention to The Interventionals facilitated Deepcaster’s recommending five short positions prior to the Fall, 2008 Market Crash all of which were subsequently liquidated profitably.

 


Market Movers into 2014

Posted by: Deepcaster

Tagged in: myblog

Deepcaster

 

“The World is Getting Closer to that End Game Every Day,”

Jim Rickards, “Currency Wars, The Making of the Next Global Crisis”

Powerful Forces Extrinsic to the Markets will determine Key Market Moves over the next few months and beyond. We identify certain of those here and indicate how they are likely to affect the Markets.

For example, “Fundamentals,” Technicals, and Interventionals all now point to an Impending (extrinsically generated) Big Move to Climax in one Key Sector, which we identified in our December Letter.

But one overwhelming Powerful Extrinsic Force has already begun to Manifest itself – and to move Markets – and will increasingly do so — Resource Nationalism

The Newly Elected self-described Pro-Business Government of Australia just determined that it was “not in Australia’s National Interest” to allow the American Ag Company Archer Daniels Midland to acquire the Australian Company, Graincorp.

And China’s recent Expansion of its Air Defense Zone to include Islands claimed by Japan is surely motivated by the significant Undersea Reserves of Oil and Gas Found around these Islands.

And France just denied Hess Oil Company Exploration Permits in the Paris Basin. Resource Nationalism is Intensifying.

Regarding The Impending Move we earlier forecast, it has been Developing for some time now , but we call our Readers attention to it again because the Fundamentals, Technicals and Interventionals are all indicating it could begin to Climax any time now.

Let us explain why we expect that move at all, and why we expect it very soon.

We must not forget that Equities have been and continue to Float Up on Sea of Fed (and other Central Bank) created QE, including especially the Ultra-low borrowing costs that have artificially inflated Corporate Balance sheets.

Moreover, Equities levels have a 90% Correlation to the size of The Fed’s Balance Sheet, a Balance Sheet which continues to grow.

Never mind that Present and immediately Prospective Equities levels are thereby a “Mirage” as Carl Icahn correctly characterizes them because they have elevated on Fed QE. Nonetheless, the levels are what they are. So where are they likely to go for the next few weeks?

If one considers that in the next few weeks

  • The Fed is not likely to Taper, or to Taper only insignificantly
  • That “Easy Money” Janet Yellen is likely to be confirmed as Fed Chairman
  • That Certain Key Equities Technicals remain Bullish (but see below)
  • That the Administrations of the U.S., China, and other Major Nations are likely to continue manipulating Key Statistics, such as GDP, Employment, and Inflation.
    In other words these Official Statistics are Bogus. [Deepcaster relies on Reliable producers of Accurate Statistics such as, primarily, Shadowstats.com for the USA.]

As a result, Corporate Earnings appear (cf. above) Robust. And Key Statistics appear Mildly Bullish, Easy Fed Money is likely to continue.

Certain (but not all) Key Technicals are very Bullish short-term. (See Caveat below.)

Conclusion: Short-term and into Year-End, we expect to see the Final Blow off Top Phase of the Equities Rally. Indeed, Equities have been moving steadily up since early October.

However, technically they (cf. the S&P) have formed an ascending Bearing Wedge. Thus it is no surprise that while “Retail” Investors are jumping into the Market, Institutional “Smart Money” is beginning to exit.

In sum, while we Expect Equities to be higher at year-end than they are now, we expect The Big Move – a sudden Decline of 5 to 10% followed by a Snap Back up leading to our Target Highs (per our December Letter) just before or after Year-End.

That would set the Stage in 2014 for the beginning The Endgame, as Rickards puts it.

Rickards is right to be concerned. Looking out to the mid and long term, Fundamentals (e.g., impending U.S. Budget and Debt Ceiling Battles) as well as long term Equities Charts with their Expanding “Jaws of Death” Wedge, are quite Bearish. Indeed, according to The Buffet Rule one should not invest in Equities Now. To paraphrase

Investors should be buyers of stocks when the aggregate market cap of the largest 5,000 companies in the US, as measured by Wilshire 5,000, falls in the range of 70% to 80% of US GNP. Today, that ratio stands at 109%. (Since 2009, the Wilshire 5,000 has risen 68%. But US Economy has grown just 17%.)

And there are two other indicators that, Mid and Long Term, Equities are set to Crash beginning some time in 2014: 1) Interest Rates have begun to rise and 2) Excessive Leverage-Margin Debt (September) is at an all-time high of over $400 Million. We shall be watching the Timing Signals very carefully.

So, amidst looming Uncertainty and Threats, what are the Prospects for Real Money? Thus far, Gold and Silver Prices continue to be vulnerable to Cartel (Note 1) Generated Takedowns.

ZeroHedge graphically describes the Cartel’s early Monday (11/25/2013) Morning Raid.

“Shortly after 1amET this morning, someone with no apparent fiduciary duty to their client's for best execution or any apparent trade allocation expertise decided it was time to dump 1500 contracts into an entirely illiquid gold futures market. The 150,000 ounce notional sell order ($184.5 million), captured graphically by Nanex, sent the price down $10 instantaneously, tripped the exchange's circuit breakers and halted the market's trading for 20 seconds (once again). This is now the 4th market halt in the past 3 months (and this time on no news whatsoever)”

“Gold Hammering Leads To Another Overnight Gold Market Halt”
ZeroHedge, 11/25/13

Can these Cartel-generated Takedowns successfully continue? We have recently forecast the Duration of the Current Takedown and that when completed it will likely Mark the long-term Base for the subsequent Great Launch Up for Gold, Silver and the Miners. Why?

Looking ahead, the Prospects for The Great Launch Up beginning by early 2014 are increasingly bolstered by the fact that Physical Bullion Supplies available for Delivery continue to Deplete – A recent report from the Comex shows the Registered (Available for Delivery) has shrunk to about 630,000 ounces. And the Demand for and Recognition of the Importance of, Physical, is increasing. The Swiss Nationalist Party is pushing an Initiative to Restrict the Export of Physical Gold Bullion from Switzerland.

But the Great Vulnerability in the Market is not the Gold and Silver Price, the Prospects for which are increasingly Bright, but the Dismal Prospects for the $US.

The $US value has eroded a bit over the past couple of weeks basis USDX, and this is no surprise given the prospective ascendency of Easy Money Janet Yellen to be Fed Head.

Longer term, regarding the $US, $US Strength will likely not last for many more months either. Indeed, long-term the $US is likely doomed as the World’s Reserve Currency. China has already entered into Bilateral Currency Swap Deals with a number of Major Countries, and is the leading importer of Gold A Gold-backed Yuan as the New World Reserve Currency is on the Horizon.

The Move away from the $US as the World’s Reserve Currency has begun, and will accelerate.

Therefore, we can expect Easy Money Policies including Fed Bond Buying via QE to continue indefinitely.

This will likely keep rates on the U.S. 10 year Note below 3% for a while more, but cannot keep them from rising indefinitely. There is simply too much Fed-created Hot Money in the System. This occurs because Fed QE suppresses interest rates, which lowers borrowing costs, which artificially elevates corporate Earnings. These earnings are thus Hot, i.e., artificially created, money. Carl Icahn is therefore correct to call corporate earnings “a mirage.”

Even so, the Fundamental pressure for higher rates will eventually overwhelm Fed action therefore, short- to mid-term, we expect rates to creep up toward 3% on the 10 year.

Only when we face the Travails of early 2014 do we expect to see U.S. Treasury Bond Strength again and yields well below 3% again, but only for a very few months. After that we expect the Great Bond Bubble to burst, and Hyperinflations to take Hold. See “Fed has created an Inflation ‘Time Bomb’ Michael Kling, MoneyNews, 11/26/13.

But the Fact that other Major Nations are also devaluing their Fiat currencies via “Printing” guarantees Inflaiton of Tangible Asset Prices.

Finally, the Crude Oil Price is another Inflation Canary in the Monetary Mine.

Crude Prices took a bit of a hit when the provisional Iran Deal was announced, not so much because of the prospect of additional Crude coming on the Market, but rather because it indicates a Move toward Peace rather than War.

As well, Rising Inventories have raised WTI’s discount to Brent to an 8 Month high.

In addition to the Iran Deal, NY Fed head Bill Dudley’s recent “Taper will be reduced” talk served to take WTI Crude down to the low $90s as we write.

However, based on a similar Rationale as that for our Equities forecast above, we do expect an Equities and Crude Price Rally to begin very soon and carry into year end. Indeed, increasing Tension between China and Japan over the Disputed Islands in the South China See may provide a boost to Crude Prices as well.

Only the launching of The Great Crash, likely beginning later in 2014, will serve to deflate Crude Prices significantly once again.

Resource Nationalism, the Prospects for War and Peace, Intervention in Key Markets by Governmental and Quasi-Governmental Entities (competitive Fiat Currency Printing and Hyperinflation Prospects) and Increasing Demand for Hard Assets are the Extrinsic Forces which will move the Markets going into 2014.

Best regards,

Deepcaster November 29, 2013

Note 1: We encourage those who doubt the scope and power of Overt and Covert Interventions by a Fed-led Cartel of Key Central Bankers and Favored Financial Institutions to read Deepcaster’s December, 2009, Special Alert containing a summary overview of Intervention entitled “Forecasts and December, 2009 Special Alert: Profiting From The Cartel’s Dark Interventions - III” and Deepcaster’s July, 2010 Letter entitled "Profit from a Weakening Cartel; Buy Reco; Forecasts: Gold, Silver, Equities, Crude Oil, U.S. Dollar & U.S. T-Notes & T-Bonds" in the ‘Alerts Cache’ and ‘Latest Letter’ Cache at www.deepcaster.com. Also consider the substantial evidence collected by the Gold AntiTrust Action Committee at www.gata.org, including testimony before the CFTC, for information on precious metals price manipulation. Virtually all of the evidence for Intervention has been gleaned from publicly available records. Deepcaster’s profitable recommendations displayed at www.deepcaster.com have been facilitated by attention to these “Interventionals.” Attention to The Interventionals facilitated Deepcaster’s recommending five short positions prior to the Fall, 2008 Market Crash all of which were subsequently liquidated profitably.


Two Great Bubble Threats, One Great Opportunity

Posted by: Deepcaster

Tagged in: myblog

Deepcaster

 

“I am very cautious on equities today, This market could easily have a big drop. Very simplistically put, a lot of the earnings are a mirage. They are not coming because the companies are well run but because of low interest rates.”

11/18/13 - Carl Icahn

Very smart Investor Carl Icahn is right to call “a lot of” corporate earnings a “mirage” because by reducing borrowing costs via ongoing QE, The Fed has artificially elevated earnings.

Thus Corporate Earnings are yet another Dangerous Fed-created Asset Bubble.

With Janet Yellen’s appointment as Fed Chairman nearly a Slam Dunk (albeit a Bad One) we can expect Easy Money Policies including Bond Buying via QE to continue indefinitely.

This will likely keep rates on the 10 year below 3% for a little while more but cannot keep them from rising indefinitely. There is simply too much Fed-created Hot Money in the System. Hot Money Bubbles are inflating because Fed QE suppresses interest rates, which lowers borrowing costs, which artificially elevates corporate Earnings. These earnings are thus Hot, i.e., artificially created, money. Remove or lessen the QE and the Bubble Bursts. Carl Icahn is therefore correct to call corporate earnings “a mirage.” And such a Mirage is a Dangerous Bubble!

“It is almost comical watching stocks soaring into the stratosphere negating one negative technical warning after another and reaching levels that defy rational thinking, yet here we are.
“The investing world has been perfectly conditioned by the Central Bankers to buy every single dip, throw caution to the wind, make the word "risk" archaic, and continue to shove stocks higher and higher and higher with no end in sight. It is absolutely astonishing to watch this thing unfold. “Apparently all that is needed to make the very concept of a bear market in stocks obsolete is for endless money printing. There appears to be no consequences whatsoever to this madness as it is now the new normal.


“Maybe we will see 1800 in the S&P 500 before the month is out. Who knows? As a trader you have to go with the money flow and the chart but as an observer with a sense of history, you have to shake your head in both bewilderment and sadness. Bewilderment that so many otherwise intelligent individuals see nothing wrong with a near-permanent money creation scheme and sadness, that so many can be herded into something which has no rational basis other than the fact that it is going up.
“I do need to make one quick comment - I have stated that the broad universe of investors see no inflation signs whatsoever. Yet, one thing should be very evident - the stock market is a perfect picture of near runaway inflation but in paper assets.”

“The Bubble Keeps Getting Bigger,” Dan Norcini traderdannorcini.blogspot.com, 11/13/2013

But this Bubble creates a Great Opportunity, as we explain.

Prospectively, the Fundamental pressure (via the increasing amounts of Hot Money) for higher rates will eventually overwhelm Fed action therefore, we expect rates to continue to rise slowly, then very rapidly suddenly (see our Timing Forecasts). That is because at some point ongoing Hot Money creation crashes the Purchasing Power of the $US. Clearly, China is already working to displace the $US with a Gold-Backed Yuan as the New World Reserve Currency. When Investors and Sovereigns see this clearly there will be a Massive Flight from the $US.

As well, ongoing Fed QE not only creates an ever-more-Dangerous Bubble in the Equities Market, but also a Great Bubble in the artificially elevated Bond Market (resulting, for the past few years, in artificially suppressed interest rates). This Bubble too will break. So where to turn for Profit and Protection?

In a Non-Manipulated Market, The Massive Monetary Inflation generated by ongoing QE would generate Great Price Increases in non-Fiat (i.e., Real) Money – Gold and Silver.

But as regular Readers already know, Fed and other Central Banks, i.e., The Cartel (Note 1) have for years been conducting ongoing suppression of Paper Gold and Silver Prices, creating a Reverse Bubble, if you will.

But this Suppression is creating a Great Opportunity to buy Physical Gold and Silver at Bargain Prices. But one should invest with one’s eyes open as to the likely course and timing and results of Cartel Intervention attempts.

Consider that ‘James Mc,’ writing at LeMetropoleCafe, has become depressed because at the very likely prospect of a Takedown, but we see it as an Opportunity.

“I now see a period coming up having extremely high odds of further cartel smashes. Judging by the past 2 years of in-your-face, no regulation, blatant to extreme manipulation I'd say the odds exceed 95%... I'm issuing a severe cartel intervention warning from Friday, November 22 to Friday, December 6th. Cartel interventions and flash crashes during this period have a history of producing severe financial damage to long-based derivative portfolios. The timing of the severe cartel warning is as follows:

“Friday 11/22: Pre-option expiration Friday. “Monday 11/25: Dec. gold and silver option expirations. “Friday 11/29: Illiquid Thanksgiving holiday trade “and Dec. gold, silver first notice days. “Friday 12/6: Non-farm payroll Friday.

“If recent history is any guide they will be gunning for this period. I'd rather stick my hand into a pile of burning coal embers rather than take a long position ahead of this period.”

But even if that Prospective Takedown occurs, the Great Opportunity to buy Physical is enhanced. This is because stockpiles of Physical available for Delivery are rapidly depleting.

Indeed, Gold shipped from Hong Kong to the Mainland nearly tripled to 855 tonnes in this year to September. And that is just one entry point to Mainland China.

Looking ahead, the Prospects for The Great Launch Up beginning soon are increasingly bolstered by the fact that Physical Bullion Supplies available for Delivery continue to Deplete – A recent report from the Comex shows the Registered (Physical Available for Delivery) has shrunk to about 630,000 ounces. If only 2% of “longs” stand for Delivery, Comex Physical would be exhausted.

And India is starving for Physical Gold

“Indian ex-duty premiums: AM $157.40, PM 155.90, with worth gold at $1243.48 and $1242.85. Far above legal imports point: India continues to starve for gold. At the PM reading local Indian gold was 24.28% above would gold (Thursday24.14%).”

“Early GJ: Cheerful Chinese?,” John Brimelow, 11/22/13

In sum, soon (see our Forecasts) we expect The Great Launch UP (of Both Bullion and the Mining Shares) to begin.

In sum, these Bubble-Threats and Opportunities are the result of The Private, For-Profit Fed’s self-interested policy of protecting their Owners/Mega-Bank Clients above all.

Thus it is no surprise that former Director of the OMB, David Stockman recently said (11/14/13) that the “lunatic” policies of The Fed were engineering a global “collapse”.

But that Prospective Collapse begets a Great Opportunity.

Best regards,

Deepcaster November 22, 2013

Note 1: We encourage those who doubt the scope and power of Overt and Covert Interventions by a Fed-led Cartel of Key Central Bankers and Favored Financial Institutions to read Deepcaster’s December, 2009, Special Alert containing a summary overview of Intervention entitled “Forecasts and December, 2009 Special Alert: Profiting From The Cartel’s Dark Interventions - III” and Deepcaster’s July, 2010 Letter entitled "Profit from a Weakening Cartel; Buy Reco; Forecasts: Gold, Silver, Equities, Crude Oil, U.S. Dollar & U.S. T-Notes & T-Bonds" in the ‘Alerts Cache’ and ‘Latest Letter’ Cache at www.deepcaster.com. Also consider the substantial evidence collected by the Gold AntiTrust Action Committee at www.gata.org, including testimony before the CFTC, for information on precious metals price manipulation. Virtually all of the evidence for Intervention has been gleaned from publicly available records. Deepcaster’s profitable recommendations displayed at www.deepcaster.com have been facilitated by attention to these “Interventionals.” Attention to The Interventionals facilitated Deepcaster’s recommending five short positions prior to the Fall, 2008 Market Crash all of which were subsequently liquidated profitably.

 


Profit and Protect from The Great Race

Posted by: Deepcaster

Tagged in: myblog

Deepcaster

"’I would like to see the truth come out of these confirmation hearings to discuss how completely clueless Janet Yellen was during the housing bubble,’ Schiff suggests by way of warming to the topic. Not only did Yellen fail to see the crash coming, but she was dismissive of the dangers related to our over-leveraged housing economy even as Schiff himself was doing his best to alert the public. ‘She was wrong about everything in the past and I think she will continue to be wrong once she's chairwoman.’

“Schiff says it is Yellen's faith in the fed's ability to cure what ails the economy that will prove to be America's undoing. Having learned nothing from the crisis Yellen will continue to print money until the long-anticipated currency crisis arrives and ‘brings an end to the madness,’ he argues.

“In a sense, the best case scenario is one involving a total meltdown as Schiff sees it. For six years the Fed has enabled an almost total lack of fiscal discipline. Easy money has forestalled a total collapse without ever allowing any corrective economic action. The economy has been in a medically induced coma since 2009. If Yellen is truly as inept as Schiff believes, maybe it's not too much to hope that hyper-easing will be disastrous enough to get America to snap out of it….”

“‘Clueless’ Yellen Will Trigger Collapse (Hopefully): Peter Schiff,” Jeff Mackle, Breakout, finance.yahoo.com

Major Nations around the World are competing in The Great Race.

In the course of this Great Race there will be Great Risks and also Great Opportunities for Profit and Wealth Protection, Opportunities of which we have been, and intend to continue, keeping readers apprised.

We know that The Great Race will continue for a while longer.

We also know that the Race will end Very Badly for Most National Economies and for their Unprepared Citizens, including Unprepared Investors and Traders.

Consider this recent report on the Status of The Great Race

“The European Central Bank cut its key rate last week in a decision some investors say was intended in part to curb the euro after it soared to the strongest level since 2011. The same day, Czech policy makers said they were intervening in the currency market for the first time in 11 years to weaken the koruna. New Zealand said it may delay rate increases to temper its dollar, and Australia warned the Aussie is ‘uncomfortably high….’  

"The moves threaten to spark a new round in what Brazil Finance Minister Guido Mantega in 2010 called a ‘currency war,’ barely two months after the Group of 20 nations pledged to ‘refrain from competitive devaluation’."

“Race to Bottom Resumes as Central Bankers Ease Anew: Currencies” Bloomberg News, 11/11/13

The Action in the U.S. Dollar/Euro just last week ($US up, Euro down) provides a Sterling example of how The Race is playing out.

The Race is The Race of Major National (and Regional) Banks which print Fiat Currencies to competitively Devalue those currencies.

Major Nations are competitively devaluing their currencies, in an effort to support, above all, their Commercial Bank clients/owners, and secondarily to help their economies, their exporters and apparently (given the results of several years of QE) last, their unemployed..

These Devaluations have not broken into open Currency (or Hot Military) Wars, yet. But they may when the Negative Consequences of Devaluation, e.g., Price Hyperinflation, become more apparent, and felt. Competitive Currency Devaluation is a Zero Sum Game.

In sum, these Currency Devaluation “Wars” will continue until they must stop (because, inter alia, they generate Hyperinflation of the Prices of Essential Tangible Assets). That is because most Major Economies are burdened with Unpayable Debt and Sluggish or Contracting Economies and Currency Devaluation is one way to reduce the Burden, but only temporarily.

In order to Profit and Protect, consider two Tangible Assets whose Price is determined in part by Currency Devaluation – the Monetary Metals, Gold and Silver.

Trader Dan’s recent analysis is excellent

“This week and last week, the US Dollar has been higher. Guess what happened to gold over those same two weeks? Yep - it went lower.

“The two weeks previous to those the US Dollar was weaker. Guess what gold did back then? Yes - it went higher.

“It is all coming back to the US Dollar once again. Simply put, rising interest rates in the “US tend to favor additional strength in the US Dollar as traders fear that apparent stronger economic readings will bring the Fed back in on the TAPER SIDE of the QE equation.

“When you toss in the fact that Euroland just got hit with a surprise rate reduction yesterday, is it any wonder why traders are favoring the US Dollar right now? It is also helping the greenback immensely that foreign investment appetite for US equities which continue their one-way trek higher is boosting demand for the US currency as well.

“All of this adds up to some very difficult headwinds for gold to overcome.”

“US Dollar Strength Derailing Gold,” Traderdannorcini.blogspot.com, 11/8/2013

But what is not mentioned is that Cartel (Note 2) Price Suppression has been the Main Force keeping the Prices of the Tangible Asset “Canaries” in the Monetary “Mine,” Gold and Silver, suppressed thus far!

We hasten to say that $US Strength (vis à vis Gold, Silver and Stronger Real Asset Based Currencies) will not last for much longer. Indeed, long-term the $US is likely doomed as the World’s Reserve Currency.

Thus, one Great Opportunity for Profit and Protection is to play the “Hyperinflation is Coming” Card. Consequently, Deepcaster intends to continue to keep readers apprised of probable timing. By the way, it is quite important to note that Official Figures regarding Inflation are Bogus in the U.S., China and other Key Major Nations. For example, The Real Numbers show the U.S. is Threshold Hyperinflationary already with CPI at 8.80% (Note 1).

However, notwithstanding ongoing Cartel Precious Metals Price Suppression attempts, which have been successful so far, the probability of that Great Precious Metal Launch up beginning soon (see our timing forecasts) and being sustained, increases as time passes . And the Miners stocks should explode upward as well.

Recent Positive Price Action in the HUI is encouraging – as Bullish Mining Share Prices often lead Bullish Bullion Moves. Indeed, recently, the HUI generated two Reversal Days in a row recently, and is technically set to launch higher soon but that launch has thus far not occurred. Only Cartel Price suppression can keep Mining stocks down, and that is not likely to last much longer. Unfortunately, it is entirely possible that the Prelude to the Great Launch up will be one more Brief but Major Takedown.

Remember that it is in The Cartel’s interest to demoralize Precious Metal Partisans with repeated Takedowns, and that they may well succeed with Takedowns for a little while longer.

On the Positive Side, Physical Demand will likely soon force even Paper Gold and Silver Prices higher. In the past 6 months Physical Gold eligible for COMEX delivery (so called “Registered”) has been shrinking fast… to 660,000 ounces.

Consider,

The Demand for Bullion in China and India is huge.

If a mere 2% of “longs” hold their positions and ask for delivery, COMEX inventory will be exhausted.

If/when that occurs, there will be a massive spike up in prices.

Hold your Gold and Silver Bullion and Mining Shares for future Protection and Profit.

Another Consequence of The Great Race toward Currency Devaluation has been the “ongoing” Equities Rally fueled by The private, for-profit Fed’s QE. The QE is aimed mainly at helping their shareholders/owners, the Mega-Banks. W hen we take a comparative look at Equities Charts (e.g. the Dow) over time they reflect our earlier, and continuing, forecasts.

A long term Equities Chart (e.g., The Dow) with its Expanding “Jaws of Death” Wedge is quite Bearish, a harbinger of The Great Crash to come. Indeed, according to The Buffet Rule one should not invest in Equities Now.

We paraphrase that Rule

– Investors should be buyers of stocks when the aggregate market cap of the largest 5,000 companies in the US, as measured by Wilshire 5,000, falls in the range of 70% to 80% of US GNP. Today, that ratio stands at 109%. (Since 2009, the Wilshire 5,000 has risen 68%. But US Economy has grown just 17%.)

Consider other signs of the coming Great Equities Crash

–The Shiller P/E of the S&P 500 (the index divided by the 10-year average of inflation-adjusted earnings) is now above 25 – a level that prior to the late-1990s dot-com bubble was seen only in the three weeks prior to the 1929 stock market crash.

–The Price-revenue ratio of the S&P 500 is double its pre-1990s bubble average.

–Over the past 40 years there have only been two other times when the DJIA has risen as fast and as far as it has off its 2009 low. The first was in the run-up to the 1987 crash. The second was in the late 1990s, during the dot-com frenzy.

But monthly and Weekly Dow Charts are Bullish…and this is consistent with our earlier forecast for an Equities Rally (now occurring) prior to the Great Crash. Therefore, re Crash Launch Timing, see our forecasts.

Stay tuned as the Jaws of Death come ever closer to closing.

Best regards,

Deepcaster November 15, 2013

Note 1: Shadowstats.com calculates Key Statistics the way they were calculated in the 1980s and 1990s before Official Data Manipulation began in earnest. Consider

Bogus Official Numbers vs. Real Numbers (per Shadowstats.com)

Annual U.S. Consumer Price Inflation reported October 30, 2013
1.18%     /    8.80%

U.S. Unemployment reported November 8, 2013
7.3%     /     23.5%

U.S. GDP Annual Growth/Decline reported November 7, 2013
1.65%        /     -1.70%

U.S. M3 reported October 24, 2013 (Month of September, Y.O.Y.)
No Official Report     /     4.12% (i.e, total M3 Now at $15.392 Trillion!)

Note 2: We encourage those who doubt the scope and power of Overt and Covert Interventions by a Fed-led Cartel of Key Central Bankers and Favored Financial Institutions to read Deepcaster’s December, 2009, Special Alert containing a summary overview of Intervention entitled “Forecasts and December, 2009 Special Alert: Profiting From The Cartel’s Dark Interventions - III” and Deepcaster’s July, 2010 Letter entitled "Profit from a Weakening Cartel; Buy Reco; Forecasts: Gold, Silver, Equities, Crude Oil, U.S. Dollar & U.S. T-Notes & T-Bonds" in the ‘Alerts Cache’ and ‘Latest Letter’ Cache at www.deepcaster.com. Also consider the substantial evidence collected by the Gold AntiTrust Action Committee at www.gata.org, including testimony before the CFTC, for information on precious metals price manipulation. Virtually all of the evidence for Intervention has been gleaned from publicly available records. Deepcaster’s profitable recommendations displayed at www.deepcaster.com have been facilitated by attention to these “Interventionals.” Attention to The Interventionals facilitated Deepcaster’s recommending five short positions prior to the Fall, 2008 Market Crash all of which were subsequently liquidated profitably.


A Critical Key to EndGame Investing

Posted by: Deepcaster

Tagged in: myblog

Deepcaster


“FRANKFURT, Nov 7 (Reuters) - The European Central Bank cut interest rates to a record low on Thursday and said it could take them lower still to prevent the euro zone's recovery from stalling as inflation tumbles.

“The move took financial markets by surprise - the euro fell sharply in response while European shares rose.

“Underlining its support for the euro zone economy, the ECB also said it would prime banks with as much liquidity as required until mid-2015….

“European bank shares climbed….”

“UPDATE 6-ECB cuts rates to new low, ready to do more if needed,” Eva Taylor, reuters.com, 11/7/2013

The ECB’s recent rate-cut action (and especially its effects on the Markets) is but yet another Manifestation of the Most Powerful Ongoing Trend increasingly determining Major Markets Performance.

Understanding this Trend and its likely Denouement are Critical to successful Investing and Trading going forward, and Critical to understanding The EndGame of The Most Powerful Force driving The Markets now and going forward.

This increasingly powerful Force in the Markets and the Economy has become manifest in recent years – one even more powerful than The Force in the Star Wars movie series was purported to be.

Whether one like this Force or not, Investors and Traders ignore this Force at their Peril.

The Force is the Reality and Prospect of Fed and other Major Central Bank ongoing and increasing Intervention in Major Markets.

Consider the following accurate analysis from Bloomberg News.

“Treasury 10-year-note yields rose to the highest levels in three weeks after a U.S. manufacturing gauge rose at a faster pace than forecast, weakening the case for the Federal Reserve to maintain stimulus.

"The Institute for Supply Management factory data was a little on the strong side, so it puts the tapering fear back into the market and we start to get higher yields," said William Larkin, a fixed-income portfolio manager at Cabot Money Management in Salem, Mass. "It's become a Fed-centric environment."

"The 10-year yield rose six basis points to 2.62% ...”

“Solid Manufacturing Report Gives 10-Year Yield A Boost” Bloomberg News, 11/4/13

Indeed, any time the Taper Fear increases in the Markets, 10 year and other Yields rise, because of the Fear that diminished Fed Buying would no longer support the Bond Market and thus maintain lower interest rates.

And the concomitant $US Strength beginning last week was a result of both

-- Eurozone Economic Weakness with Inflation reported near 4 year lows, increasing the likelihood the ECB was going to ease Monetary Policy (which, indeed, has happened), thus weakening the Euro, and

-- better than expected U.S. Manufacturing data from the recent stronger-than-expected U.S. PMI report, and an ostensibly better Jobs report released Friday, November 8.

But the Key Manifestation of the Power of The Force was that Key Markets’ reaction to both of these was to respond in light of how the Fed and other Central Banks are likely to act in light of them.

We have indeed moved into a “Central Bank-Centric” Economic and Financial Universe. The private for-profit Fed (& other Major Central Banks) are indeed The Force. But there is an increasing Downside to this Interventionist Force, including Hyperinflation Risks, Misallocation of Capital and Artificial and Unsustainable Market levels. Consider additional details the Reuters report on the ECB action.

“The 23-man Governing Council had faced intense pressure to act after a shock slump in euro zone inflation to 0.7 percent in October, far below the ECB target of just under 2 percent….

“Draghi stressed that the ECB still had an "easing bias" to its policy stance. By contrast, many economists expect the U.S. Federal Reserve to begin withdrawing stimulus next year.

"’This will give European exporters much-needed breathing space, with the euro currency finally falling back,’ David Thebault, head of quantitative sales trading at Global Equities in Paris, said of the cut.

“The euro slid more than 1 percent on the day to hit a seven-week low of $1.3304, down from around $1.3490 just before the ECB announcement.

“LIQUIDITY FOR LONGER

“Draghi reaffirmed the central bank's forward guidance that rates would hold at ‘present or lower levels’ for an extended period and said he saw no threat of broad deflation.

“He also said banks would be able to rely on as much liquidity as they needed for longer, with the bank's main refinancing operations to be offered at fixed rate with ‘full allotment’ until at least July 2015.

“European bank shares climbed….”

Ibid.

And consider the Impact of Central Bank Policies on Equities Markets. The S&P is up 24% this year, but Official U.S. GDP forecasts have fallen from 2% to 1.69% and Real GDP (per Shadowstats.com -- Note 1) is Negative. Clearly Fundamentals do not support such elevated stock prices.

In sum, the result of Major Central Banks QE has been and increasingly continues to be:

1) Massive boosts to Mega-Banks (several of which are shareholders of the Private for-profit Fed) Profits and Profits Prospects.

2) Massive Financial Assets Inflation and a resulting Wealth Effect benefitting mainly the already Ultra-Rich and

3) No substantial benefit to the Real Economy or Taxpaying Upper-Middle and Middle Class Workers

This (#3) is reflected in the .7% Euro Zone Inflation Rate in the Real Economy to which the ECB Committee refers – the Eurozone Economy is not recovering.

In sum, under the Pretense of helping the Real Economy, the QE of the ECB (and Fed and other Central Banks) helps mainly the Mega-Banks and Financial Assets Owners

And there are other Negative Consequences flowing from the Central Banks’ QE.

For example, long-term, regarding the $US Primary Trend, the $US has been and continues to be battered by The Feds “No Taper/QE to Infinity/Print-More-Money Policy, by continued Deficit Spending (i.e. repeatedly raising the Debt Ceiling, a consequence of the ignorant and/or careless Obama Admin pressure) and by a panoply of Bilateral Currency Swap Deals which have not included the $US (cf. The recent Chinese Yuan-Euro Swap Deal).

Major Nations Continue to move away from using the $US as the World’s Reserve Currency, a move injurious to holders of Dollar-denominated Assets.

But perhaps the Greatest Negative Consequence is that, having embarked on QE, the Central Banks are finding it impossible to stop for reasons laid out by Alasdair Macloed

“This week an article in Euromoney points out that liquidity in bond markets is drying up….

“The reason for deteriorating liquidity in bond markets is due in part to yields being unnaturally low…. if the Fed insists on mispricing the market with its interventions and zero interest rate policy it must fully support the market with both QE and also twist applied to the yield curve to maintain market liquidity.

“For the investment analysts and commentators that still expect tapering this must come as something of a surprise. The underlying point they have missed is that once a central bank embarks on a policy of printing money as a cure-all, it is impossible to stop, or even to just taper without risking a liquidity crisis. Increasingly illiquid markets are now telling us that QE should be increased.

“The point was rammed home this week by the ECB's decision to lower interest rates….

“At least the ECB rate cut should defuse tapering expectations in US markets, … The Fed now needs to plant the suggestion that QE will have to be increased…”

“There’s a Liquidity crunch developing,” Alasdair Macloed goldmoney.com, 11/08/2013

But unending, and increasing, QE is leading, already, to threshold Hyperinflation in the Real Economy (Note 1) or, more accurately, to Hyperstagflation.

Thus wise Investors must consider Protection, via Precious Metals, from Central Bank Intervention and consequent ongoing Fiat Currency Devaluation and Hyperinflation. They must also cope with Suppression of Gold and Silver Prices by the Cartel (Note 2).

Recent $US Strength provided yet another Pretext/Opportunity for The Cartel (Note 2) to take down paper Gold and Silver Prices again and Commodities in general recently. But given the increasing demand for Delivery of Physical Bullion this cannot continue without an eventual upward launch of Gold and Silver Prices.

The fact is that acquisition of Physical Gold and Silver Bullion by Major Players, and more than just China and India, continues to increase.

This is reflected in the Fact that, just in the past 6 months Physical Gold eligible for COMEX delivery (so called “Registered”) has been shrinking fast… to 660,000 ounces.

If a mere 2% of “longs” hold their positions and ask for delivery, COMEX inventory will be exhausted.

If/When that occurs, there will be a massive spike up in prices.

And that EndGame result is coming, because the Central Banks are locked in to continuing QE. And they will have to continue QE because the Real Economy is not recovering. Consider Shadowstats

Third-Quarter Data Show Slowing or Stagnant Economic Growth.   The big economic reports are in for September, except for the official housing data that have been delayed until the end of November, and except for the initial third-quarter GDP estimate due for release on November 7th.  The available numbers overwhelmingly support a sharp slowdown in in third-quarter 2013 GDP growth, from the 2.5% currently estimated as the headline, annualized quarterly real (inflation-adjusted) growth rate for second-quarter GDP.  Eventually, third-quarter GDP growth should reflect an outright quarterly contraction.

“Reporting in third-quarter employment and real retail sales showed slowing economic activity on a quarterly basis.  With real retail sales corrected for understatement of the CPI-U inflation used in deflating the series, sales contracted on both a quarterly and annual basis….”

“No. 570: Economic Review, September CPI, Real Retail Sales and Earnings,” Shadowstats.com, 10/30/2013

“Despite the nonsensical headline 2.8% third-quarter GDP growth—estimated today (November 7th) by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)—the economy still has not recovered and shows no prospects of any near-term recovery in business activity.  If anything, the new data suggest that industry will have to cut back on production, in order to reduce rapidly rising, unwanted inventories that have not moved due to weak sales.  GDP-related updates of money supply velocity are graphed in the Hyperinflation Watch .

“Confirming one reason for weak consumption, www.SentierResearch.com released its estimate today for the September 2013 real median household income index.  The index was little changed on the upside, where the gain was not statistically meaningful.  Depressed levels of household income mean the consumer does not have the wherewithal to drive an economic rebound. …”

“No. 571: Third-Quarter GDP, Money Supply Velocity, September Household Income,” Shadowstats.com, 11/07/2013

Be prepared to Profit and Protect from continuing QE and its Consequences.

Best regards,

Deepcaster November 8, 2013

Note 1: *Shadowstats.com calculates Key Statistics the way they were calculated in the 1980s and 1990s before Official Data Manipulation began in earnest. Consider

Bogus Official Numbers vs. Real Numbers (per Shadowstats.com)

Annual U.S. Consumer Price Inflation reported October 30, 2013
1.18%     /    8.80%

U.S. Unemployment reported November 8, 2013
7.3%     /     23.5%

U.S. GDP Annual Growth/Decline reported November 7, 2013
1.65%        /     -1.70%

U.S. M3 reported October 24, 2013 (Month of September, Y.O.Y.)
No Official Report     /     4.12% (i.e, total M3 Now at $15.392 Trillion!)

Note 2: We encourage those who doubt the scope and power of Overt and Covert Interventions by a Fed-led Cartel of Key Central Bankers and Favored Financial Institutions to read Deepcaster’s December, 2009, Special Alert containing a summary overview of Intervention entitled “Forecasts and December, 2009 Special Alert: Profiting From The Cartel’s Dark Interventions - III” and Deepcaster’s July, 2010 Letter entitled "Profit from a Weakening Cartel; Buy Reco; Forecasts: Gold, Silver, Equities, Crude Oil, U.S. Dollar & U.S. T-Notes & T-Bonds" in the ‘Alerts Cache’ and ‘Latest Letter’ Cache at www.deepcaster.com. Also consider the substantial evidence collected by the Gold AntiTrust Action Committee at www.gata.org, including testimony before the CFTC, for information on precious metals price manipulation. Virtually all of the evidence for Intervention has been gleaned from publicly available records. Deepcaster’s profitable recommendations displayed at www.deepcaster.com have been facilitated by attention to these “Interventionals.” Attention to The Interventionals facilitated Deepcaster’s recommending five short positions prior to the Fall, 2008 Market Crash all of which were subsequently liquidated profitably.


An Essential Strategy for Profit & Protection

Posted by: Deepcaster

Tagged in: myblog

Deepcaster

 

“Facebook creates less business value than any other digital marketing opportunity ... [so] ... Don’t dedicate a paid ad budget for Facebook…

“We asked 395 executives from the US, the UK, and Canada how satisfied they were with the business value they get from 13 different online marketing sites and tactics. You’d expect a site boasting the largest audience and the biggest collection of data to fare well. But we found that Facebook offered less value than anything else on our list .... The least valuable tactic within Facebook? Those paid ads onto which Facebook has shifted focus.”

“Facebook Doomed? Forrester Says Ads Tell a Sad Story”, Jim Edwards finance.yahoo.com, 10/29/13

It is no surprise to us that the First Rank Market Research Firm, Forrester Research, has published a Quite Negative Opinion on Facebook.

Several weeks ago, we characterized the current infatuation with Facebook as a “Fad” and laid out reasons it should be a weakening economic (and therefore stock price) performer in the months going forward.

[Indeed, given the seemingly unending revelations about the Hacking Into and Compromising of Supposedly Secure Databases, how many thinking persons are going to want to continue putting their Private, Business and Personal information online and in “the cloud” anyway?!]

But a larger, quite simple but Essential Strategy for Profit and Protection is to be learned from considering, retrospectively, the fate of Blackberry, Dell and Nokia and prospectively, Facebook. Indeed it is an Essential Key to Profiting Going Forward.

For example, the recent 120 Day Performance Chart of One Major Sector illustrates the Essential Key to Profiting and Wealth Protection going forward.

And employing The Profit Opportunity Key has allowed us to recommend very profitable Trades recently. But employing that Key will also be increasingly important to Profiting and Wealth Protection going forward for both Investors and Traders.

Certain Mega-Forces have recently been and will increasingly be the Major Determinant of Major Sectors, and Individual Securities, Performance going Forward, as we have pointed out in our most recent Letter and Alerts. And these Mega-Forces increase the Importance of This Strategic Key.

Understanding how and why these Mega Forces are Now more Important than they have been for the last several decades, explains why The Key is more important than ever.

Consider that, if one reviews the chart of the Mini Dow for the last four months, one can easily see how we recommended profitable Put and Call Positions, alternatively, recently.

The Mega-Forces about which we have been writking pushed the Dow UP, Down, Up, Down, Up over that four month period.

And while the Dow is higher than it was 4 months ago it is not much higher. Not only does this Uptrending sideways Chop illustrate our Maxim – “Buy and Hold rarely Works Anymore”.

But it also illustrates another Key to Profit; indeed perhaps The most important Key to Profit going Forward – Investors and Tradersmust be just as willing to ‘Go Short’ as to ‘Go Long’. (We wager that Holders of shares of Blackberry, Nokia, and even Apple, now wish they had shorted at the right time.)

And given the Mega-Forces at play going forward, this simple Maxim will be increasingly true for the foreseeable future.

Speaking of Shorting Opportunities -- opportunities for both Profit and Wealth Protection going forward, Jim Sinclair recently gave us excellent Clues.

“Renowned gold expert Jim Sinclair says financial calamity is just around the corner for America. Sinclair contends, “We are facing the annihilation of currency. We are facing the shift of America as the leading and most influential nation of the world to some form of banana republic. . . . If it wasn’t for food stamps, we would be facing long lines of people waiting for free food.” For gold, everything hinges on the U.S. dollar, and Sinclair says, “I think the dollar gets hammered. I believe we are headed for hyperinflation.” One of the many black swans, according to Sinclair, is the possible abandonment of the U.S. dollar by Saudi Arabia. If Saudi Arabia stopped selling oil only in U.S. dollars, what would that do to the buying power of the buck? Sinclair says gasoline would be “$10 a gallon very soon, without a doubt.”

“Sinclair predicts retirement funds and bank deposits are going to be taken by the government. How much of your money could you lose? Sinclair says, “In Cypress, it was a total of 83%. . . . Cypress is the blueprint, and it’s what we are going to experience here in the United States.” Jim Sinclair, who has just accepted the position as Chairman of the Advisory Board for the establishment of the Singapore Gold Exchange, says, “The exchange will trade physical gold only and not future gold. . . . You have to make delivery.” Meaning, there will be no naked short selling or manipulation of this new market. Sinclair says, “This will emancipate gold from the paper price.” How high will gold go? Sinclair predicts, by 2016, “Gold will be $3,200 to $3,500 an ounce.”

“Annihilation of U.S. Dollar Coming-Jim Sinclair” Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com, 10/30/13

And consider Shadowstats.com re the same Congeries of Issues.

“…Due to ongoing solvency issues within the U.S. banking system, that Federal Reserve is locked into a liquidity trap of flooding the system with liquidity, with no resulting surge in the money supply.  Yet, the Fed’s quantitative easings have damaged the dollar, which in turn has triggered sporadic inflation from the related boosting of oil prices.  The overhang of dollars in the global markets—outside the formal U.S. money supply estimates—is well in excess of $10 trillion.  As those funds are dumped in the global markets, the weakening dollar will trigger dumping of U.S. Treasury securities and general flight from the U.S. currency.  As the Fed moves to stabilize the domestic financial system, the early stages of a currency-driven inflation will be overwhelmed by general flight from the dollar, and a resulting surge the domestic money supply.  Intensifying the crisis, and likely coincident with heavy flight from the dollar, odds also are high of the loss of the dollar’s global-reserve-currency status.

“These circumstances can unfold at anytime, with little or no warning.  Irrespective of short-lived gyrations, the dollar should face net, heavy selling pressure in the months ahead from a variety of factors, including, but certainly not limited to: (1) a lack of Fed reversal on QE3; (2) a lack of economic recovery and renewed downturn; (3) concerns of increased quantitative easing by the Fed; (4) inability/refusal of those controlling the government to address the long-range sovereign-solvency issues of the United States; (5) declining confidence in, and mounting scandals involving the U.S. government.  

“It is the global flight from the dollar—which increasingly should become a domestic flight from the dollar—that should set the early stages of the domestic hyperinflation….”

“Consumer Liquidity, September Retail Sales, PPI,” John Williams, Shadowstats.com, 10/29/2013

Regarding the $US, it is clear that the Main Question is not “Whether?” but “When?”

And it is not just the $US that is being degraded by QE, et. al., but the Purchasing Power of All Fiat Currencies.

Consider the following study:

“According to a study of 775 fiat currencies by DollarDaze.org, there is no historical precedence for a fiat currency that has succeeded in holding its value. Twenty percent failed through hyperinflation, 21% were destroyed by war, 12% destroyed by independence, 24% were monetarily reformed, and 23% are still in circulation approaching one of the other outcomes. “The average life expectancy for a fiat currency is 27 years, with the shortest life span being one month. Founded in 1694, the British pound Sterling is the oldest fiat currency in existence. At a ripe old age of 317 years it must be considered a highly successful fiat currency. However, success is relative. The British pound was defined as 12 ounces of silver, so it’s worth less than 1/200 or 0.5% of its original value. In other words, the most successful long standing currency in existence has lost    99.5% of its value.
“Given the undeniable track record of currencies, it is clear that on a long enough timeline the survival rate of all fiat currencies drops to zero.”

Chris Mack, ResourceInvestor.com

Deepcaster attentively monitors the “When” to short, and vis à vis “what” as appropriate, signals and reports and recommends to Subscribers.

Meanwhile, it behooves Investors and Traders alike to prepare for a weaker $US (and other Fiat Currencies in Purchasing Power Terms), by going short at the right time.

And considering the fate of Fiat Currencies in general provides just one example of why it is Essential to be just as willing to “Go Short” as to “Go Long.”

Best regards,

Deepcaster November 1, 2013


Should the United States cent be eradicated, as it is in Canada?

Posted by: headturner

Tagged in: Untagged 

headturner

Final week, Canada produced its final penny. Experts say that the move will save the country $11 million a year. Some say the exact same thing should take place in the United States. How many times have you needed additional information on where can i get a payday loan, and turned to an internet search on instant approval payday loans? Look no further, all the info you need is at http://www.matchfinancial.com


Avoiding the penny



The cost of copper is up and with it the price of minting a cent. Making a penny costs more than two cents. Earlier this year, the Obama administration recommended finding less expensive materials to make cents and nickels.



But our neighbors to the north have gone one better. Canada has eliminated the 1 cent coin, which has been in circulation for 104 years. The final Canadian penny was produced Friday.



Costly to create



The cent has pretty much become worthless, meaning it was not worth the 1.6 cents needed to create pennies in Canada. Vending machines and parking meters will not take them, and customers find them more annoying than other things.



US costs



Rick Smith of the Motley Fool explained that the U.S. could save $70 million a year by finishing production of cents. Each cent costs 2.41 cents to create in America. That means the U.S. is losing more than Canada on the production.



Giving to charity



To get the penny out of circulation, the Canadian government suggests people donate them to charity.



Jim Flaherty, the Canadian Finance Minister, said:



"We hope all Canadians will consider putting their last pennies to good use by donating them to charity. I consider it fitting they could have a lasting impact on causes that Canadians believe in."


Increments of five used


Some have expressed concern that eliminating the cent will trigger merchants to round up to the nearest nickel, costing customers more in the long run. However, according to the Wisconsin State Journal, that has been debunked by researchers in Canada and the States. Some prices would round down to the nearest nickel and others round up, making it a virtual wash.



US tried to change



There have been two times in recent years that the United States has tried to get rid of the penny. This involves the Legal Tender Modernization Act of 2001 and the Currency Overhaul for an Industrious Country (COIN) Act of 2006. The latter would have required that every little thing round to the nearest 5 cents just like the Canadian law.



How about dollar bills?


Experts have other opinions too. For instance, one article in the Wisconsin Lacrosse Tribune suggests that getting rid of the $1 bill and replacing it with a $1 coin is a really good plan on top of eliminating the penny. It would not be mistaken for a quarter if it were large enough.



The article suggests that $5.6 billion could possibly be saved over 30 years by the United States government if it would just make this change. Canada changed to the dollar coin years back.



Paper bills only final a few years while coins do not have to be remade for years, which is why it would create savings.



Canada not producing pennies anymore



http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2uEMguHK-Nc



Sources:



Lacrosse Tribune

Chicago Tribune
Daily Finance


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