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Monday, December 22, 2014
   
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Paper Gold Isn’t Real Gold

Gold Commentary

When markets are manipulated (especially markets for physical goods), imbalances are created. The longer the manipulation continues and/or the more extreme the degree of manipulation, the larger the resultant imbalance.

The Corporate Media continues to attempt to describe the large gold-deficit which exists in India as a “current account deficit” – i.e. a currency deficit. Gold is a currency. It is and always has been regarded as such by our governments and the international cabal of private banks (the “central banks”) who are allowed to control/operate our monetary systems.

As a matter of the most elementary logic, it is impossible for one to create a “currency deficit” when you are simply swapping one currency for another. If we were to trade McIntosh apples for Delicious apples, we could not end up with “an apple shortage.” So all these media reports of a “current account deficit” for India are a clumsy sham. India has a large gold-deficit. Period.

Why does India have a large gold-deficit? Why does this worry the Financial Oligarchs to such a great degree that they not only continue to obsess about it in their own, media propaganda-machine; but they also feel compelled to lie about the situation? Most importantly, why do these same Oligarchs believe they can fix/solve this gold deficit through selling “paper gold”?

There is only one, possible explanation for the large, persistent gold-deficit which exists in India: the under-pricing of gold versus their own paper currency. Understand that Indians are not only renowned as the biggest consumers of gold, but also the most-shrewd buyers with respect to price.

In short, India’s “gold deficit” could be solved tomorrow, with no financial contortions (or fraud) of any kind; simply through a substantial increase in the price of gold (to its fair-market value). In fact, this is the most elementary principle in our (supposedly) free/open markets: whenever a supply/demand imbalance exists – in this case gold currency versus paper currency – price rises for the good in short supply to whatever level is necessary to restore equilibrium in that market.

Note that with all our currencies maintained (i.e. manipulated) within relatively tight ranges to each other (what our governments call “competitive devaluation”) that if gold is (and has been) chronically under-priced versus the Indian rupee then it must also be chronically under-priced with respect to all the other variations of these paper currencies.

Presumably the bankers (and media talking-heads who parrot them) are familiar with the most basic mechanism of free/open markets. Presumably these same individuals actually believe our own markets to be free/open. Yet when these same individuals continue to fret (and lie about) India’s gold deficit; the only remedies they can suggest are fraud or manipulation.

The manipulation is already a fait accompli. India’s government has jacked-up the import duty on gold. Or to put this another way, it has artificially raised the price of gold in order to artificially decrease demand. The only possible way to characterize this action is “market manipulation.”

Now the (proposed) fraud. The other “bright idea” being floated by the media/bankers is to sell Indians more (imported) “paper gold” – lots more. The obvious question is how can you solve a gold deficit by selling “paper gold”, unless one is actually only selling paper, but calling it gold?

The fact that some sort of sham is being attempted here is obvious. The only remaining issue is to precisely clarify the nature of that sham. Examining this issue from a technical/legal perspective; in fact there are two ways in which “selling paper gold” could ‘solve’ a gold deficit.

 

A Golden Opportunity With Miners, Part III

Gold Commentary

Parts I and II of this series presented an overview of the precious metals mining sector. There it was noted that these companies have been (in the most neutral terminology possible) chronically undervalued in our markets.

The basic business model of these miners (and all commodity-producers) was described/explained. Specifically, it was demonstrated that over time all such producers must “leverage” the price of the commodity they produce – as a basic proposition of arithmetic.

However, despite being in the best-performing commodity sector for the past 12 years, and despite the superlative fundamentals for precious metals going forward; as the saying goes, all gold- and silver-miners “are not created equal.” Notably, there is a dramatic schism between the large-cap corporations in this sector (which tend to attract the most investor dollars and attention) and the smaller producers.

To understand the night-and-day difference between these companies, it’s best to begin by looking at the typical large-cap business model with respect to precious metals miners. As with large corporations in general, their philosophy is the epitome of simplicity – in other words utterly simplistic. Bigger is better.

In a world populated by small corporations, and blessed with abundant resources; this simplistic mantra was in fact a general economic truism…about a hundred years ago. In today’s world of scarce resources, already over-populated with mega-corporations; it is a dinosaur-strategy, assuring one’s path to extinction.

While this observation is appropriate to most of the corporate world, it is especially easy to illustrate the truth of this (modern) principle by examining precious metals mining. Look at every large gold mining company on the planet, and one will see the clear illustration of a strategic decision by management: the choice to operate a (relatively) small number of mega-mines, versus choosing instead to produce gold from a larger number of smaller mines.

At a very elementary level, this strategy may seem to represent wisdom. The simplistic corporate mantra is that larger operations must be “more efficient” than smaller ones. While this assertion is not necessarily true in general, it is patently untrue with respect to precious metals mining (and most forms of mining).

In a world of diminishing resources, resource-scarcity necessarily implies two realities in mining. The number of (undeveloped) “large deposits” in the world is steadily declining, and the “grades” (i.e. richness) of the ore is also steadily declining. This means extracting/crushing/refining more and more tons of ore to get less and less ounces of gold.

From an environmental standpoint, this is an appalling dynamic. To begin with, the amount of environmental disruption/devastation which results from mining operations rises exponentially with the size of the mine. One large mine (typically) doesn’t produce an equal amount of “pollution” to four mines, ¼ its size; but often two or three times that quantity.

Yet even from the standpoint of corporate efficiency this is clearly an inept if not suicidal strategy. In our world of scarce resources, nowhere is this reality more apparent (and expensive) than with respect to energy. At best (i.e. producing high-grade ore from efficient mines), mining companies represent a highly energy-intensive form of industry.

Deliberately choosing to produce gold from deposits with rapidly declining grades, in an economic paradigm of soaring energy costs, in an energy-intensive industry is nothing less than a recipe for destroying one’s own profit margins. Out of desperation, the large-cap gold miners have turned to polymetallic deposits for their jumbo mines, bolstering their sagging bottom-lines by using the “credits” from these other metals to offset soaring production (energy) costs.

 

A Golden Opportunity With Miners, Part II

Gold Commentary

Part I of this three-part series dealt mainly with the general. It identified the basic premise of successful investing (“buy low/sell high”), and then explained both empirically and as a study in psychology how/why most investors violate this Golden Rule with their investing.

Readers were introduced to the Contrarian paradigm of investing. It was then shown how adopting this Contrarian perspective offered investors the only realistic possibility of buying low and selling high – on a potentially consistent basis.

The first part of this series then concluded by explaining what makes gold and silver mining companies a Contrarian’s Dream:  a “low tide” sector which is currently bereft of any investment capital; yet despite the un-loved status of this sector it has a 12-year bull market behind it.

The obvious inference here is that if a sector at “low tide” can have a 12-year rising trend behind it; imagine where it will go when the tide finally comes in. Emphasizing this premise; Part II will illustrate how/why precious metals and precious metals miners have the most-favorable fundamentals of any sector…going forward.

There are far too many bullish fundamentals backing gold and silver themselves to merely list them all. Indeed, summarizing only the reasons why precious metals “must rise” in price over the long term is beyond the scope of this piece. However, readers interested in such analysis have plenty of past commentaries from which to choose, beginning with The Three Legs of the Precious Metals Bull.

It will full occupy the space available for this analysis just to explain why gold and silver miners must leverage those gains in bullion prices over the longer term.

When one speaks of any commodity-producer “leveraging the gains” in price for the commodity they produce (over time); this notion is not a mere suggestion. It’s not a “theory.” It’s not even merely “conventional wisdom.”

This is simple arithmetic, and so (just as 2 + 2 = 4) it must be true. An easy, hypothetical example demonstrates this concept in tautological terms.

An investor enters the market with a specific quantity of capital to invest. The investor wishes to position his capital in the precious metals sector; however he is torn between investing in bullion or the miners, so he puts half into each. For simplicity, I will use a starting price of $500/oz per gold; however the principle is true with respect to any numerical values.

Making things even simpler, there is only one gold-miner in which investors can purchase shares; and it costs this miner $400/oz for each oz of gold it digs out of the ground and then processes.

The investor is successful. Gold moves from $500 to $1,000/oz. Now let’s see how this price-change has impacted this hypothetical portfolio. The effect of the rise in price on this investor’s bullion holding is simple. With the price moving from $500 to $1,000, he has doubled his money. However, the picture is much different when he looks at his mining investment.

With the cost to produce each ounce of gold being $400/oz; at $500/oz the miner was making $100 (or a 25% margin) on each ounce of gold produced. Not too shabby, but nothing to get excited about…yet.

With the price of gold at $1000/oz; this same mining company is now making $600 profit on each ounce of gold produced, as its profit-margin soars from 25% to 150%. The investor’s bullion has doubled in value, however the mining company in which he holds shares has become six times as profitable.

   

A Golden Opportunity With Miners, Part I

Gold Commentary

This commentary is not for all investors. Sadly, many if not most investors will never know the intellectual (and financial) satisfaction of truly “buying low and selling high”. When some company (or even an entire sector) is falling in price toward some long-term bottom, most investors will be fleeing in panic – rather than edging closer, sensing opportunity.

The popular (but apparently mistaken) belief in the West is that the Mandarin characters which represent the Chinese word for “danger” also can be used to represent the word “opportunity”. The fact that this botched-translation has achieved cliché status here in the West is, in fact, because it articulates one of the most time-tested principles of Contrarian logic.

There is no better context in which to demonstrate this principle than in markets. The vast majority of investors are bandwagon-jumpers. This is in no way intended as an insult. It is a simple statement of empirical evidence and human nature.

What should any smart investor invest in: “winners” or “losers”? Most smart investors don’t even have to think about that one – naturally, you invest in the “winners” and shun the “losers”. By definition, a “winner” (in market terms) is something which has already risen in value, substantially. One is jumping on the bandwagon.

Conversely, by definition a “loser” is something which has fallen in value, substantially. To truly “buy low” requires buying losers – i.e. being a Contrarian. Thus while all the talking-heads in the financial management industry parrot the words “buy low, sell high”; the only people in our markets who actually walk the walk are the Contrarians.

If Contrarians are (literally) the only investors in our markets who actually practice the money-making principle of buy low/sell high; then why aren’t all Contrarians fabulously wealthy, and (ironically) thus viewed as Market Gurus? Because sometimes when “losers” go down they never come back up again. Anyone bought any “Kodak film” lately?

One must be a Contrarian if one wishes to even attempt to “buy low and sell high”. However, one must be an intelligent Contrarian (or at least a competent one) to do so successfully. We can summarize the challenge which faces investors with a simple metaphor. Being a successful Contrarian means being able to discern between a “low tide” (which precedes a high tide), and a ship which has absolutely (and permanently) “run aground.”

This brings us to the Mother of All Low Tides: the precious metals sector. Envision two sectors. One sector has been rising for twelve consecutive years, during which time it has outperformed all others (and produced stellar returns for investors).

The other sector has been shunned by mainstream investors to the point where the majority of market participants have invested only roughly 1% as much capital in this sector as the historical average, throughout the entire history of our markets. It is continuously described by the mainstream media as “about to collapse”, and avoided by most “respectable” financial management professionals because it is “too risky.”

Now try to wrap your head around the notion that these “two sectors” are the same sector: precious metals. How is it possible that the best-performing asset class over the past twelve has been (and remains) more under-owned than at any time in the entire history of our markets?

 

What Will ‘Debt Jubilee’ Look Like?

International Commentary

The economies of the West (with few exceptions) are all hopelessly insolvent. Globally, debt-levels have reached such an extreme, bloated magnitude that outside of the banksters’ derivatives casino this is our new “biggest bubble.” For reasons which will be made clear shortly; many readers are unaware of the severity of this global debt-crisis. Let’s review the facts.

Virtually all Western nations are sitting with their highest debt-loads in history, meaning their debt-to-GDP levels are their highest ever – and most are well past the level which constitutes an official “debt crisis.” Worse still, all of these debtors have debts which are increasing at a much, much faster rate than economic growth (and this gap continues to increase).

In other words, those nations which are already insolvent have no rational hope of ever becoming solvent again; while those nations which are merely “nearly insolvent” have no rational hope of avoiding insolvency. Yet we have this collection of debtors assuring us again and again and again that they are “bailing out” each other.

How is this possible? It’s not. As an elementary premise of arithmetic/logic; it is impossible for one debtor to ever “bail out” another – directly. In fact there are only two ways in which one debtor may attempt/claim/pretend to be “bailing out” another debtor:

a) Borrowing more money one’s self, and then giving (i.e. gifting) it to the other debtor

b) Kiting’ a cheque, and then giving that (illusory) “money” to the debtor

However, our governments have never claimed/admitted doing either one of those things. Here is what our governments are telling us.

They claim to have “bailed out” these insolvent debtors (starting with Greece) by lending them more money. Again, as an elementary premise of arithmetic/logic it is impossible to “bail out” an insolvent debtor by lending that debtor more money.

Not only does it make the insolvent debtor even more insolvent; it instantly turns that debt-market into an open Ponzi-scheme. Only ever-increasing quantities of new loans can delay implosion, and the longer the Ponzi-scheme is perpetuated the more damaging/devastating the ultimate collapse must become.

The original rebuttal of our governments (and bankers and the media) to such obvious criticism was simple: none of these debtors “would ever default”; such as when Greece’s banker – EU “monetary chief” Olli Rehn – told reporters over and over (in 2010) that there was “no possibility” of a Greek default. Obviously these “leaders” were forced to stop making this inane assertion after Greece defaulted on its massive debt.

   

The Currency War, Part II

International Commentary

In Part I, readers saw how our political “leaders” were deliberately destroying our economies (at the request of the Corporate Oligarchs whom they serve) in order to boost the short-term corporate profits of these Oligarchs – by destroying the wages of their own workers. Readers also saw the additional costs of this economic suicide: massive unemployment, spiraling debts, and soaring inflation.

This comes in the context of a convoluted Bloomberg article, which discusses the current financial summit of the G-20; where the G-7 sub-group issued a quasi-denial that they were planning a “currency war”. This is, of course, a ludicrous lie – since we have roughly a decade of actions by these same G-7 nations which totally contradict their hollow words.

For the past ten years or so “competitive devaluation” has been the official monetary policy of these governments: competing to see who could destroy the value of their currency the fastest. So how would a “currency war” differ from our present “competitive devaluation”?

At most, a currency war would simply be a greater degree of what these corrupt governments have already been doing for the past ten years. At least, the difference is pure semantics. Thus when Bloomberg speaks of our governments efforts to “calm concern” about a currency war, the sham is utterly transparent.

Our dishonest governments are attempting to reassure us that they aren’t “planning" on doing (in the future) the same thing they have been doing for the past decade. This is much like a heroin addict (with needles sticking out of his pockets) assuring anyone who will listen that he has “no plans” on shooting-up with more heroin.

This leads us to two closely related questions. Why are our governments lying about their currency destruction? Why is the success of this lie of such vital importance to these governments? The answer to these questions requires ½ arithmetic and ½ understanding human nature.

One thing which humanity has always been good at is destroying things. Thus when our governments “compete” to destroy their own currencies, we know they will be successful. From the moment that competitive devaluation began, the only possible outcome was all these debauched currencies going to zero – i.e. the definition of hyperinflation.

However, even our dim-witted political servants can comprehend the inevitable result of competitive devaluation: all their paper currencies utterly worthless; the fraudulent Paper Empires of their Oligarch masters nothing but confetti. The only way to delay this outcome is to:

a) Lie about what they are doing.

b) Manipulate markets to hide the effects of their actions.

Hyperinflation should be an event of pure arithmetic. Exponentially increasing money-printing (i.e. an exponentially increasing rate of currency-dilution) should produce identical, but inverse  curves. One curve shows the money-printing going to infinity; while its mirror-image shows the value of currency going to zero at the same rate.

However, hundreds of years of empirical evidence shows us that the typical hyperinflation is not an arithmetic event but rather a “crisis of confidence”.  To properly understand this requires understanding a colloquial term: the “con-man.”

 

The Currency War, Part I

International Commentary

The morning ‘news’ rarely fails to disappoint when it comes to churning out Machiavellian double-talk which is more convoluted than your average pretzel. Today was no exception. The stalwart propagandists at Bloomberg have treated us to another exercise in logical perversity with this headline:

G-7 Said To Discuss Statement To Calm Currency War Concern

Machiavelli himself would have stood and applauded this effort. Before we see what this statement actually says, let’s review what it does not say. It does not say that our (morally/intellectually/economically) bankrupt governments don’t want a “currency war.” It does not say that our governments aren’t planning on having a currency war. My apologies for the double-negatives.

Indeed, focus on precisely what is said here and things become much clearer: a “statement” to “calm concern”. “Statement” = lie; and “calm concern” = putting the Sheep back to sleep. Having dissected the title of this propaganda missive, we’re now ready to begin analysis. Why/about what do the Sheep need calming? And how are we being lied to?

The two questions are closely related. Roughly a quarter century ago, the Corporate Oligarchs (and the puppet-politicians whose strings they pull) decided to destroy the West’s economies in the name of short-term, corporate profits. The euphemism they created as a label for this sadistic plan was “globalization”.

A quick definition is in order. Often given the even more heinous euphemism “free trade”; globalization was/is a scheme to erase borders (in economic terms) to the exclusive benefit of large corporations. The primary “benefit” to these corporations was to drive wages downward in a sickening plunge, so that even the inept suit-stuffers whom we refer to as “CEO’s” could maintain healthy bottom-lines – and supposedly justify plundering their corporate coffers for the largest salaries (by a factor of ten) in economic history.

Regular readers are familiar with the chart below:

[courtesy of nowandfutures.com]

Wages for the average American worker (in real dollars) have plummeted by more than 50%; as the average American worker now gets paid what their grandparents earned during the Great Depression. Accompanying this we have Great Depression-level unemployment.

Forget the absurd “official” unemployment rates. When we include the 60+ million “discouraged workers” across Western economies (permanently unemployed people who have lost hope, and given up looking for work); unemployment rates throughout the Western world start at 15% and spiral higher from there.

   

U.S. Launches Revenge-Attack Against S&P

US Commentary

On February 5th, 2013; we learned something. We learned precisely how long of a memory-span that the U.S. government believes Market Sheep to possess: 18 months. How do we know this? Because 18 months to the day after credit-rating agency Standard & Poors announced it had “downgraded” the U.S. government’s (fraudulent) “AAA” credit rating, the U.S. government has announced its revenge.

It is “suing” S&P for “inflated credit ratings” which, according to U.S. Attorney General Eric Holder were “central to the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression.” Fans of either the ironic or absurd are warned at this point that reading further carries a direct risk of becoming dangerously over-stimulated.

Those at all familiar with our markets or general economic reporting know there are three behemoths who currently dominate the credit ratings business (Moody’s and Fitch being the other two), and at the time when S&P committed its alleged transgressions they were essentially the exclusive sources for credit-rating data in the U.S. economy and its markets.

Today, only one of those three corporations is being sued; the one which (by remarkable coincidence) happened to downgrade the credit rating of the U.S. government exactly 18 months earlier. For the many readers out there who are believers in “remarkable coincidences” (and who thus disregarded the previous sentence); undoubtedly you are all telling yourselves the same thing: S&P was doing something different/more nefarious than the other credit ratings agencies.

Let’s see what the lawyers representing S&P have to say about precisely that point:

We will vigorously defend S&P against these unwarranted claims…The fact is that S&P’s ratings were based on the same subprime mortgage data available to the rest of the market – including U.S. government officials who in 2007 publicly stated that problems in the subprime market appeared to be contained…”

Let me expand upon that statement, because truly S&P could have said much more. When the S&P spokesperson stated that “S&P’s ratings were based on the same subprime data”, she could have easily added that the ratings themselves were virtually identical to those of the other two ratings agencies; and their “analysis” of market conditions was so similar it was if all three were reading off the same Script.

So we have three trusted institutions all reading off of the same “don’t worry, be happy” Script, yet only one of the three is being attacked as a Villain. Who wrote the Script for the ratings agency Choir? Why, the U.S. government, of course – now playing the role of the Aggrieved Victim.

However, the U.S. government rarely speaks for itself any more when it comes to its own economy. When your lead talking-head on the economy is the mumbly, absurdly under-qualified tax-cheat, Tim Geithner; this is no great surprise.

So where was the Script printed for the benefit of the ratings agency Choir, and the Wall Street Vampires; who used all that happy-talk to scam the world for $trillions? On the same Federal Reserve printing press which was/is cranking-out infinite quantities of U.S. greenbacks.

 

Wall Street Invents New Form Of Mortgage-Rape

US Commentary

 

The United States housing market – and real estate system – is a very efficient machine. What it is not “efficient” at doing is providing affordable housing to the broadest number of Americans (the stated agenda). What it is efficient at doing is blowing-up massive asset-bubbles, and burying Americans under mountains of unpayable debt (the real agenda).

We can establish the true agenda of the U.S. government in the housing market (and the banksters who pull its strings) by simply examining any/all “innovations” in this market which banksters and political shills alike agree make the U.S. housing market “better” than that of other Western nations.

The obvious starting point is the mortgage-interest tax deduction. Here, the Big Lie is that mortgage-interest deductibility makes U.S. housing “more affordable” – by slightly reducing the financial burden of the debt. This is more of the infamous “static analysis” in which the propaganda machine specializes. To illustrate this requires defining that concept for readers not familiar with this term.

Analysis comes in two forms: “static” and “dynamic”. The difference between static and dynamic analysis is literally as stark/extreme as the difference between a two- and three-dimensional image. Exactly as with the two-dimensional image, static analysis lacks depth – the “depth” of time.

In an ever-changing world, static analysis is a still-photograph. It (attempts to) “analyze” some phenomenon with the unstated (but ever-present) premise that nothing changes in the world around us. Remarkably, even the direct change taking place (over time) in the phenomenon being examined is ignored.

It is analysis which is simplistic by definition, and as with most simplistic thinking it is usually seriously flawed. The ultimate example of (simplistic) static analysis is Keynesian economics, otherwise known as our credit-based economic system. The premise of Keynesian economics is the epitome of simplicity.

There are economic advantages (in terms of a “stimulus effect”) from introducing debt/credit into any economic system. Thus Keynes (and his modern-day Disciples) tell us that since taking on debt once (and only in a small amount) is advantageous, that we should do it all the time; forever. It is the ‘logic’ of the cocaine-addict.

It is an “economic theory” (to be magnanimous) which states simply that “maxing-out our credit card is great”; but is utterly silent on how the credit-card debt can ever be repaid – once our “credit limit” is hit. The closest these Zealots come to ever even considering “sustainability” is to tell us that as long as the growth of debt is at or below the level of economic growth that everything is fine. Translation? As long as we can make payments on this debt (as the debt is growing) then “everything is fine.”

The Debt Zealots have no answers/guidance to offer once debt-levels inevitably exceed sustainable levels, thanks to an arithmetic process which is apparently too complex for the Debt Zealots to understand: compound interest. (Un)fortunately, we no longer need any “theory” from them on what happens once debt is no longer sustainable; as we have plenty of economic fact around us from which we can answer this question.

What happens when the cumulative interest payments on debt become unsustainable? The Deadbeat Debtor begins to borrow additional money just to pay interest on debt. This has the direct mathematical effect of transforming the speed at which debt (insolvency) rises from a ‘mere’ geometric rate (compound interest) to an exponential rate (“compounding” the compound interest).

   

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