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The Currency War, Part II

International Commentary

In Part I, readers saw how our political “leaders” were deliberately destroying our economies (at the request of the Corporate Oligarchs whom they serve) in order to boost the short-term corporate profits of these Oligarchs – by destroying the wages of their own workers. Readers also saw the additional costs of this economic suicide: massive unemployment, spiraling debts, and soaring inflation.

This comes in the context of a convoluted Bloomberg article, which discusses the current financial summit of the G-20; where the G-7 sub-group issued a quasi-denial that they were planning a “currency war”. This is, of course, a ludicrous lie – since we have roughly a decade of actions by these same G-7 nations which totally contradict their hollow words.

For the past ten years or so “competitive devaluation” has been the official monetary policy of these governments: competing to see who could destroy the value of their currency the fastest. So how would a “currency war” differ from our present “competitive devaluation”?

At most, a currency war would simply be a greater degree of what these corrupt governments have already been doing for the past ten years. At least, the difference is pure semantics. Thus when Bloomberg speaks of our governments efforts to “calm concern” about a currency war, the sham is utterly transparent.

Our dishonest governments are attempting to reassure us that they aren’t “planning" on doing (in the future) the same thing they have been doing for the past decade. This is much like a heroin addict (with needles sticking out of his pockets) assuring anyone who will listen that he has “no plans” on shooting-up with more heroin.

This leads us to two closely related questions. Why are our governments lying about their currency destruction? Why is the success of this lie of such vital importance to these governments? The answer to these questions requires ½ arithmetic and ½ understanding human nature.

One thing which humanity has always been good at is destroying things. Thus when our governments “compete” to destroy their own currencies, we know they will be successful. From the moment that competitive devaluation began, the only possible outcome was all these debauched currencies going to zero – i.e. the definition of hyperinflation.

However, even our dim-witted political servants can comprehend the inevitable result of competitive devaluation: all their paper currencies utterly worthless; the fraudulent Paper Empires of their Oligarch masters nothing but confetti. The only way to delay this outcome is to:

a) Lie about what they are doing.

b) Manipulate markets to hide the effects of their actions.

Hyperinflation should be an event of pure arithmetic. Exponentially increasing money-printing (i.e. an exponentially increasing rate of currency-dilution) should produce identical, but inverse  curves. One curve shows the money-printing going to infinity; while its mirror-image shows the value of currency going to zero at the same rate.

However, hundreds of years of empirical evidence shows us that the typical hyperinflation is not an arithmetic event but rather a “crisis of confidence”.  To properly understand this requires understanding a colloquial term: the “con-man.”

 

The Currency War, Part I

International Commentary

The morning ‘news’ rarely fails to disappoint when it comes to churning out Machiavellian double-talk which is more convoluted than your average pretzel. Today was no exception. The stalwart propagandists at Bloomberg have treated us to another exercise in logical perversity with this headline:

G-7 Said To Discuss Statement To Calm Currency War Concern

Machiavelli himself would have stood and applauded this effort. Before we see what this statement actually says, let’s review what it does not say. It does not say that our (morally/intellectually/economically) bankrupt governments don’t want a “currency war.” It does not say that our governments aren’t planning on having a currency war. My apologies for the double-negatives.

Indeed, focus on precisely what is said here and things become much clearer: a “statement” to “calm concern”. “Statement” = lie; and “calm concern” = putting the Sheep back to sleep. Having dissected the title of this propaganda missive, we’re now ready to begin analysis. Why/about what do the Sheep need calming? And how are we being lied to?

The two questions are closely related. Roughly a quarter century ago, the Corporate Oligarchs (and the puppet-politicians whose strings they pull) decided to destroy the West’s economies in the name of short-term, corporate profits. The euphemism they created as a label for this sadistic plan was “globalization”.

A quick definition is in order. Often given the even more heinous euphemism “free trade”; globalization was/is a scheme to erase borders (in economic terms) to the exclusive benefit of large corporations. The primary “benefit” to these corporations was to drive wages downward in a sickening plunge, so that even the inept suit-stuffers whom we refer to as “CEO’s” could maintain healthy bottom-lines – and supposedly justify plundering their corporate coffers for the largest salaries (by a factor of ten) in economic history.

Regular readers are familiar with the chart below:

[courtesy of nowandfutures.com]

Wages for the average American worker (in real dollars) have plummeted by more than 50%; as the average American worker now gets paid what their grandparents earned during the Great Depression. Accompanying this we have Great Depression-level unemployment.

Forget the absurd “official” unemployment rates. When we include the 60+ million “discouraged workers” across Western economies (permanently unemployed people who have lost hope, and given up looking for work); unemployment rates throughout the Western world start at 15% and spiral higher from there.

 

U.S. Launches Revenge-Attack Against S&P

US Commentary

On February 5th, 2013; we learned something. We learned precisely how long of a memory-span that the U.S. government believes Market Sheep to possess: 18 months. How do we know this? Because 18 months to the day after credit-rating agency Standard & Poors announced it had “downgraded” the U.S. government’s (fraudulent) “AAA” credit rating, the U.S. government has announced its revenge.

It is “suing” S&P for “inflated credit ratings” which, according to U.S. Attorney General Eric Holder were “central to the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression.” Fans of either the ironic or absurd are warned at this point that reading further carries a direct risk of becoming dangerously over-stimulated.

Those at all familiar with our markets or general economic reporting know there are three behemoths who currently dominate the credit ratings business (Moody’s and Fitch being the other two), and at the time when S&P committed its alleged transgressions they were essentially the exclusive sources for credit-rating data in the U.S. economy and its markets.

Today, only one of those three corporations is being sued; the one which (by remarkable coincidence) happened to downgrade the credit rating of the U.S. government exactly 18 months earlier. For the many readers out there who are believers in “remarkable coincidences” (and who thus disregarded the previous sentence); undoubtedly you are all telling yourselves the same thing: S&P was doing something different/more nefarious than the other credit ratings agencies.

Let’s see what the lawyers representing S&P have to say about precisely that point:

We will vigorously defend S&P against these unwarranted claims…The fact is that S&P’s ratings were based on the same subprime mortgage data available to the rest of the market – including U.S. government officials who in 2007 publicly stated that problems in the subprime market appeared to be contained…”

Let me expand upon that statement, because truly S&P could have said much more. When the S&P spokesperson stated that “S&P’s ratings were based on the same subprime data”, she could have easily added that the ratings themselves were virtually identical to those of the other two ratings agencies; and their “analysis” of market conditions was so similar it was if all three were reading off the same Script.

So we have three trusted institutions all reading off of the same “don’t worry, be happy” Script, yet only one of the three is being attacked as a Villain. Who wrote the Script for the ratings agency Choir? Why, the U.S. government, of course – now playing the role of the Aggrieved Victim.

However, the U.S. government rarely speaks for itself any more when it comes to its own economy. When your lead talking-head on the economy is the mumbly, absurdly under-qualified tax-cheat, Tim Geithner; this is no great surprise.

So where was the Script printed for the benefit of the ratings agency Choir, and the Wall Street Vampires; who used all that happy-talk to scam the world for $trillions? On the same Federal Reserve printing press which was/is cranking-out infinite quantities of U.S. greenbacks.

   

Wall Street Invents New Form Of Mortgage-Rape

US Commentary

 

The United States housing market – and real estate system – is a very efficient machine. What it is not “efficient” at doing is providing affordable housing to the broadest number of Americans (the stated agenda). What it is efficient at doing is blowing-up massive asset-bubbles, and burying Americans under mountains of unpayable debt (the real agenda).

We can establish the true agenda of the U.S. government in the housing market (and the banksters who pull its strings) by simply examining any/all “innovations” in this market which banksters and political shills alike agree make the U.S. housing market “better” than that of other Western nations.

The obvious starting point is the mortgage-interest tax deduction. Here, the Big Lie is that mortgage-interest deductibility makes U.S. housing “more affordable” – by slightly reducing the financial burden of the debt. This is more of the infamous “static analysis” in which the propaganda machine specializes. To illustrate this requires defining that concept for readers not familiar with this term.

Analysis comes in two forms: “static” and “dynamic”. The difference between static and dynamic analysis is literally as stark/extreme as the difference between a two- and three-dimensional image. Exactly as with the two-dimensional image, static analysis lacks depth – the “depth” of time.

In an ever-changing world, static analysis is a still-photograph. It (attempts to) “analyze” some phenomenon with the unstated (but ever-present) premise that nothing changes in the world around us. Remarkably, even the direct change taking place (over time) in the phenomenon being examined is ignored.

It is analysis which is simplistic by definition, and as with most simplistic thinking it is usually seriously flawed. The ultimate example of (simplistic) static analysis is Keynesian economics, otherwise known as our credit-based economic system. The premise of Keynesian economics is the epitome of simplicity.

There are economic advantages (in terms of a “stimulus effect”) from introducing debt/credit into any economic system. Thus Keynes (and his modern-day Disciples) tell us that since taking on debt once (and only in a small amount) is advantageous, that we should do it all the time; forever. It is the ‘logic’ of the cocaine-addict.

It is an “economic theory” (to be magnanimous) which states simply that “maxing-out our credit card is great”; but is utterly silent on how the credit-card debt can ever be repaid – once our “credit limit” is hit. The closest these Zealots come to ever even considering “sustainability” is to tell us that as long as the growth of debt is at or below the level of economic growth that everything is fine. Translation? As long as we can make payments on this debt (as the debt is growing) then “everything is fine.”

The Debt Zealots have no answers/guidance to offer once debt-levels inevitably exceed sustainable levels, thanks to an arithmetic process which is apparently too complex for the Debt Zealots to understand: compound interest. (Un)fortunately, we no longer need any “theory” from them on what happens once debt is no longer sustainable; as we have plenty of economic fact around us from which we can answer this question.

What happens when the cumulative interest payments on debt become unsustainable? The Deadbeat Debtor begins to borrow additional money just to pay interest on debt. This has the direct mathematical effect of transforming the speed at which debt (insolvency) rises from a ‘mere’ geometric rate (compound interest) to an exponential rate (“compounding” the compound interest).

 

The 2013 Economic Reality-Check

International Commentary

It has become an exhausting process attempting to translate back into the real world all of the fantasy-numbers passed off on us as “economic statistics”. It’s even more exhausting trying to unravel the Machiavellian nonsense dubbed “analysis” – and then trace back a path to sanity.

So rather than making a (futile) effort to rebut all of this vacuous propaganda in isolation, this article is an attempt to provide a (necessarily abbreviated) summation of the economic fantasy-world presented to us by the mainstream media.

As always, the best place to start in exposing this statistical mythology is the U.S. housing market, since that’s where the propaganda machine provides us with the best laughs. Ever since the collapse of the U.S. housing market in 2007; every two or three months the mainstream media has proclaimed that the U.S. housing market is “starting to recover.”

With the U.S. housing market (supposedly) experiencing roughly its 20th “recovery” over the past five years; this time the mainstream media assures us they’re serious. Let’s take a look at what the charts say.


As readers can clearly see, this chart shows new home starts “rising” to a level equal to the worst previous housing recessions in recorded U.S. history. To refer to this as a “recovery” is just plain silly. However, what makes this chart even more absurd is that most of these “housing starts” don’t even exist.

We can establish this with certainty by looking at two more U.S. housing charts:


   

Thinking Silver? Talk To The Gold-Bugs

Silver Commentary

It is a reality of life that those investors who favor gold (and silver) as their preferred asset-class need to have ‘thick skins’. On aggregate, Western investors are holding roughly 1/10th the amount of gold and silver which they have held (in similar circumstances) in the nearly 5,000 years since we first began refining “good money.”

Strip away the “gold bugs” however, the less-than-5% of the general population who hold virtually all of our gold (and silver); and the Average Investor (in Western societies) is only holding approximately 1% as much bullion as in any similar circumstances, in the thousands of years since we first began refining these metals.

This absurd level of under-ownership comes despite the twelve consecutive years of rising gold prices, a statistic unmatched by any other asset class. Obviously “it’s lonely at the top.”

While the Corporate Media have engaged in an endless stream of juvenile scare-tactics to try to frighten people away from the world’s best-performing asset class, probably the most defamatory of these attacks is the continual insistence that gold-bugs are Zealots – who worship gold like a “religion.”

There are many ways to rebut such a ridiculous smear, however perhaps the best way to do so occurred to me while attending a recent international resources conference in Vancouver. As always, the “gold bugs” featured prominently in this conference.

The commodities professionals who put together such shows first of all recognize the best-performing class of commodities (and all assets) when they see it. Secondly, they understand that the much-maligned gold-bugs can be counted on to provide the most interesting and insightful presentations among all of their speakers. It was thus no surprise to see the executive group of the Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee (more commonly known as “GATA”) being asked to once again share their knowledge with the attendees of this conference.

It was Chris Powell of GATA who actually inspired my own (minor) epiphany, when he first reminded us of yet another of the scurrilous accusations hurled at the gold-bugs by the mainstream media: that they (we) all are “nothing but a bunch of conspiracy theorists.” He then pointed out that in reality GATA was purely-and-simply a non-profit information-gathering entity; who does its research and present its facts to their large-and-growing global audience.

This was not mere assertion. The Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee then went on to demonstrate the truth of that statement by spending most of their allotted time talking about silver. This is not the behavior of zealots. You won’t hear devoted Christians saying that while “their god” is good, if you want to see “a really great god” in action you should follow Buddha.

Zealots, by definition, are unwavering believers in their own dogma. Yet not just with GATA but with most of the “community” of gold-bugs, we hear these individuals asserting one-after-another that the real story here is in the silver market.

Understand that the enthusiasm these individuals have for the gold market has not wavered in the slightest. Indeed, for numerous, fundamental reasons the gold-bugs are more optimistic about the future of gold than ever. Put another way, these analysts are more pessimistic than ever about the speed with which our servile governments are destroying our economies.

More than anything, gold-bugs are “detectives”: seekers of the Truth, in a world where the Corporate Media bombard us with a deluge of fear-mongering and outright lies to attempt to ward-off investor dollars from entering this sector. Remember all the years that these Liars attempted to dismiss gold as a “barbarous relic”?

That lie had to be abandoned. In fact, gold never ceased being treated as “money” by the same cabal of international banking which produces all of our debauched, “fiat currencies”: the central banks. However, it was only after the world’s premier Gold Haters were forced to abandon their relentless gold-dumping (because they ran out of gold), and suddenly flip-flopped and began buying gold at the fastest rate in history that the Corporate Media finally jettisoned this absurd lie.

 

Western Banking: Money For Nothing -- Literally

International Commentary

For those seeking economic truths (in a world saturated with corporate propaganda), it can often be useful and revealing to follow the work of the Apologists. In attempting to “explain” the transgressions of their Masters; it is nearly inevitable that details will slip out – details which their Masters would have rather remained secret.

A classic example would be when Jeffrey Christian of the CPM Group – an ex-Goldman Sachs banker and noted banking apologist – was testifying before the CFTC regarding the issue of manipulation in bullion markets. In attempting to ‘pooh-pooh’ the glaring/relentless manipulation taking place in these markets, Christian casually mentioned that “the gold market” was about one hundred times larger than the actual amount of bullion being traded.

Let me reiterate this: the actual total of assorted “paper bullion” and “bullion derivative” products in this market has leveraged the amount of real bullion being traded by a factor of approximately 100:1. Two points follow from this slip-of-the-tongue.

First, quite obviously in attempting to cover-up the serial manipulation of bullion markets the Western financial crime syndicate would have preferred that people didn’t know that every ounce of gold and silver being traded was leveraged (in aggregate) by roughly 100:1. It’s not the sort of thing which gives the Chumps “confidence” in the bankers’ paper-bullion “products.”

Secondly, given that this admission came from one of the bankers’ “friends”, and is now several years old; that 100:1 ballpark estimate must now be regarded as a very conservative figure. However, Jeffrey Christian is not the only one of the bankers’ friends to have been damning them with faint praise.

The legendary banking apologists of Bloomberg were recently attempting to stamp-out any fears that an imminent downgrade of the U.S.’s (farcical) Triple-A credit rating would lead to a plunge in U.S. bond prices – and soaring interest rates. They did this by pointing out that the credit ratings (on government bonds) made by the banking analysts at these ratings agencies are totally irrelevant. Said Bloomberg:

Bond investors needn’t worry that a rating cut will hurt returns. About half the time, government yields move in the opposite direction suggested by new ratings, according to data compiled by Bloomberg on 314 upgrades, downgrades and outlook changes going back to 1974.

Thus according to Bloomberg, investors in government bonds could have gotten equally good “advice” on the direction of bond prices and interest rates for the past 40 years by flipping a coin – meaning that the services provided by these bankers were/are worthless (as a tautology of logic).

Of course here is where it gets interesting: credit ratings (i.e. the creditworthiness of nations) should matter in determining bond prices and interest rates. There are only two possible explanations as to how/why the credit ratings of Western sovereign debt have been totally worthless for (at least) 40 years:

1) The bankers working for the credit ratings agencies are utterly incompetent (or corrupt).

2) Western bond markets are so heavily manipulated that they simply do not respond to economic fundamentals.

Readers can choose the explanation which they find most plausible. Note that (1) and (2) are not mutually exclusive.

However, such revelations pale in comparison to the recent work of German propaganda-outlet, Der Spiegel. While Bloomberg’s apologist was merely trying to explain/defend the absurdly corrupt U.S. bond market; Der Spiegel was attempting to defend/justify “investment banking” as a whole.

   

Platinum Market Illustrates Silver Manipulation

Silver Commentary

 

Observant precious metals investors would have recently noticed a rare – almost unheard-of – occurrence: a bullion market where prices actually respond to supply/demand fundamentals. No, obviously I’m not referring to either the gold or silver market, but rather the platinum market.

Analysis was provided by a mining website. Unlike the pseudo-analytic drivel spewed by the mainstream media concerning commodity markets; this featured long-term, hard data and cogent reasoning – versus the short-term trivia, empty rhetoric, and fear-mongering we generally get from the Corporate Media.

Specifically, the article noted that recycling in the platinum market had quadrupled over the last decade. Compounding that bearish supply factor, industrial demand has softened considerably, and even jewelry demand has been shown to be more price-sensitive than previously thought.

The combination of these factors has meant that platinum inventories are abundant, and with weak supply/demand fundamentals and abundant inventories, prices have floundered; with the price of platinum now trading below the price of gold (a very unusual situation).

With a concrete example illustrating both supply/demand fundamentals and how markets are supposed to respond to those fundamentals; the extreme/serial manipulation of the silver market appears even more blatant in comparison. Now let’s look at the “fundamentals” in the silver market.

We can begin by looking at the absurdly low, current price of silver. This artificial/suppressed/manipulated price can be illustrated in several different ways. Relative to the price of gold, silver is priced at less than 1/3 of its historical average.

During the nearly 5,000 years in which humanity has been mining/refining gold and silver; the gold/silver price ratio has averaged roughly 15:1. Yet currently (and through all the recent decades of silver manipulation) this ratio has been depressed to 50:1 (or lower).

We know that this is a case of silver being under-priced rather than gold being over-priced through simply examining the supply-side of the gold and silver markets: the miners. Gold and silver miners are experiencing their second “depression” in five years – as the radical under-pricing of silver and gold has made it difficult for established miners to raise capital, and nearly impossible for the junior exploration companies who are the life-blood of the mining industry.

Indeed, silver mining is so severely depressed that despite a six-fold increase in the price of silver over the last decade most of the world’s silver is still produced as a secondary byproduct of other mining – while bankrupted silver mines remain shuttered all over the world, and new projects are extremely slow to develop.

Further proof of the suppressed/manipulated price of silver comes from the collapse of inventories, where global inventories plummeted by more than 90% over just 15 years (from 1990 – 2005). Despite the collapse in inventories, the six-fold increase in the price of silver has barely registered any reaction at all on the supply side, where mine-supply limps higher at an anemic rate of about 2% per year.

This is yet more proof of silver price-manipulation, as with any/every commodity market where prices are free to respond to supply/demand fundamentals, we would see prices rise to whatever level was necessary to fuel new supply and discourage consumption – until supply/demand equilibrium is reached. This is the literal definition of a “free market”, something which most of us have never seen in the silver market during our entire life-span.

 

Food-Price Crisis Signals Imminent Hyperinflation

International Commentary

Attempting to decipher the global picture regarding food prices, food inventories, and food production is not akin to navigating a labyrinth. A deluge of misleading propaganda and short-term ‘noise’ from the mainstream media means anyone attempting to decipher these parameters is likely to encounter a plethora of “dead-ends” and “wrong turns.”

Those following agricultural markets and agricultural prices have seen two, general trends emerging over the past decade: rapidly rising (nominal) prices and steadily falling inventories. This flies directly in the face of the most basic of all supply/demand fundamentals.

Yes, falling inventories are supposed to lead to rising prices. However, those rising prices are then supposed to naturally lead to both falling demand (because of higher prices) and rising supply (because of higher prices) – with the rebuilding of inventories an inevitable result.

Yet despite the largest price-spike in the price of agricultural commodities in 40 years, inventories remain depressed, and critical stock-to-use ratios remain close to multi-decade lows. So why has the global economy ceased to respond to basic supply/demand stimuli? Because our subsidy-saturated global agriculture model is so absurdly broken.

[Source: United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization]

While fiscally-irresponsible Western governments continue to whine (and do little else) about their exploding debts and deficits, utterly massive (and still-growing) farm subsidies remain untouched. Western agricultural subsidies (direct and indirect)  now amount to somewhere in excess of $100 billion/year; however these subsidies are so endemic and heavily-disguised that coming up with an exact figure would be a Herculean task.

For example, much of the U.S.’s corn subsidies are in fact listed/described as “ethanol subsidies”. The preferential prices (and access) given to U.S. farmers for (precious) water supplies does not even seem to be counted as a “subsidy”, despite the tremendous quantities of subsidized water being directed toward (what is now) the U.S.’s “banana economy.” U.S. soya bean farmers received nearly $30 billion in “direct subsidies” alone from 1995 – 2011, with subsidized water not even mentioned.

There are two obvious and inevitable effects of long-term agriculture subsidies, and long-term subsidies in general: artificially low prices and depressed production. Let me repeat this: the effect of these permanent subsidies on agricultural commodities means that crop prices (and food prices) would have been spiraling upwards even more rapidly otherwise.

Put another way, crop prices (and food prices) are not “high” today. Rather, the debauched paper which our bankers (and governments) call “money” has been plummeting in value so rapidly that even with nominal prices spiraling here, in real dollars agriculture prices remain extremely depressed – explaining the relentless, long-term deterioration of inventories.

The dynamics are simple. Heavily-subsidized (Western) agricultural products are dumped in markets all over the world. Poorer, less-developed nations cannot compete with those subsidies, and thus subsidized Western agricultural products have bankrupted 10’s of millions of small farmers all over the world – and taken that land out of cultivation, further depressing supplies/inventories.

Those reactionaries in the U.S. incensed over Mexican “illegal aliens” can thank the “farm lobby” in the U.S. (i.e. Monsanto), as it is 100% responsible for the flood of Mexican migrants into the U.S. Massive corn-subsidies in the U.S. bankrupted millions of Mexican corn-farmers. With no other options for survival, these farmers made their only logical choice: they migrated to the place where they knew that the corn which they used to grow was now being grown – the U.S.

   

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